From Mullah to Progressive
On May 19, 2024, the president of Iran, Ebrahim Raisi, was killed in a helicopter crash in the mountains of Iran. He was a Shi’ite cleric and lawyer who won the presidency in 2021. After his death, a man by the name of Masoud Pezeshkian won the following presidential election. Pezeshkian is a polar opposite of the previous president Raisi; he has been called a reformist by Western and Middle Eastern media outlets.
The New York Times has reported that, “Mr. Pezeshkian has said he wants to steer Iran toward becoming more prosperous, more open socially, and more engaged with the West.” Other media outlets, such as CBS, have stated that Pezeshkian has no plan to “reshape Iran’s theocracy,” but only to moderate the morality police that enforce policies such as head coverings for women. Despite this, Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, has openly supported the half-Kurdish president. Associated Press stated,
“Iran’s supreme leader on Sunday formally endorsed Masoud Pezeshkian as president, allowing the reformist politician and heart surgeon to take charge of a country weakened by economic sanctions over its nuclear program. During an endorsement ceremony, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei urged Pezeshkian to prioritize neighbors, African and Asian nations as well as countries that have ‘supported and helped’ Iran in Tehran’s foreign relations policies.”
Pezeshikian was barred from the previous 2021 election by the Guardian Council, a group that vets out candidates. The Ayatollah’s reason for letting him run now is simple: the regime needs a representative to negotiate with the West and the new American president-elect. Israel has continually threatened to invade Lebanon and fight the Iran-backed group Hezbollah, but the IDF has done little except threaten invasion.
Now with the killing of the Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, there is fear of a much wider war; this is why Pezeshkian was placed as president. They need a moderate face to lay the groundwork for negotiations–someone who western representatives won’t see as radical Islamist, instead they will talk to someone who looks like them.
Dealing with Neocons
After the American invasion of Iraq in 2003, the Iranians were paranoid that America would meddle and try to harm their regime. In a Radio Free Europe report on March 20, 2003, they reported on the comments made by Iranian officials on America’s goals in Iraq. Concerning Brigadier General Mohammed Ali Jafari, it was reported,
“Jafari then claimed that the U.S. President George W. Bush has said, ‘“After Iraq, it will be Iran’s turn.”’ Jafari claimed that the United States wants to eliminate Iran’s governing principle of the Guardianship of the Supreme Jurisconsult (velayat-i faqih) and block the expansion of the Islamic revolution.”
The current sitting president at the time was another cleric named Mohammed Khatami. He was a moderate who had advocated for increased contact with the United States. But, because of the 2003 American invasion of Iraq, the next Iranian president would be a populist by the name of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.
In a 60 Minutes interview, President Ahmadinejad was questioned about the evidence of Iranian weapons being used in Iraq to fight American soldiers. In fact, Iran has done far more than just send weapons to insurgents. Because of the removal of Saddam Hussein, Iran has been very influential in Iraqi politics. The Council on Foreign Relations explains,
“Iran’s meddling was one cause of widespread anti-government demonstrations that began in Iraq in 2019, when protesters denounced Tehran for propping up the corrupt system of government established in the post-Saddam era and condemned repression by Iran-backed militias. It also contributed to the political infighting that has prevented Iraq from forming a government since its 2021 general elections.”
The Ayatollah and his regime have strategically-placed presidents who they believe could properly implement policies to deal with the situation at hand. In the early 2000s, that meant removing the moderate reformist willing to talk with the United States to a populist who would take the fight to the Americans to secure the regime’s interests.
Today, Iran faces new problems: the killing of three American soldiers in Jordan by what the Department of Defense called an Iranian-backed militia, the Houthi rebel group raiding cargo ships in the Red Sea, the war in Gaza, and the anti-morality police protests by liberal groups in Iran regarding the killing of Mahsa Amini. The need for a moderate and reformist president to calm the situation both domestically and abroad is desperately needed.
Conclusion
The decision for Pezeshikian to become president was no mistake, and the decision for President Trump to pick JD Vance as his vice president will only solidify the regime’s decision. The New York Times has said that, “Mr. Vance has been a steadfast supporter of Israel throughout the country’s war in Gaza, defending its wartime policies.” He also led a group of senators to send money only to Israel instead of Ukraine.
If the Americans are able to close the war in Ukraine, much more support will go to Israel, putting Iran, innocent civilians, and all the soldiers in the region in a far more perilous position. Remembering the words of Ludwig von Mises on war, a better future can be built,
“War…is harmful, not only to the conquered but to the conqueror. Society has arisen out of the works of peace; the essence of society is peacemaking. Peace and not war is the father of all things. Only economic action has created the wealth around us; labor, not the profession of arms, brings happiness. Peace builds, war destroys.”
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