The Coming Collapse of the Global Ponzi Scheme

2024-11-04

Central to any good investor’s decision-making process is determining the degree to which the target of investment is “robust to the downside.” Can the investment maintain its value—or even continue to provide sufficient return on capital—in the event of a pullback in the broader economy or a specific sector?Warren Buffett has aptly referred to this feature as “margin of safety.” While critical to rational decision-makers, margin of safety seems quaint in today’s era of speculation and central bank front-running. Rather, in place of acquiring expertise and performing rational due diligence, speculators in capital markets rely on perpetually loose monetary policy and periodic bailouts.Markets worldwide, but particularly in the US, now exhibit a profound lack of robustness. Central banks—the

2024-11-02

According to the most recent report from the federal government’s Bureau of Labor Statistics, the US economy added only 12,000 payroll jobs during October. This was the smallest month-to-month employment gain in nearly four years. Moreover, total private jobs fell in October by 28,000.This is the worst employment report since 2020, and it reflects an overall downward trend in employment growth since 2022. In addition to the drop in private employment, the report also shows drops in full-time employment and ongoing stagnation in the total number of employed workers. This is an economy in which whatever lackluster growth there is in employment, it’s being driven by part-time jobs and taxpayer-funded government workers.Government Jobs vs. Private EmploymentTotal government jobs grew by 40,000