Monthly Archive: March 2020

FX Daily, March 31: March Ends like a Lion, No Lamb in Sight

2020-03-31

by

2020-03-31

Overview: The coronavirus plague upended the world in March. Equities are finishing the month on a firm note. Strong gains in the US yesterday and an unexpectedly strong Chinese PMI (yes, to be taken with the proverbial grain of salt) helped lift most Asia Pacific and European markets today. Japan and Australia are exceptions to the generalization.

Read More »

KOF Economic Barometer: Strongest monthly plunge since 2015

2020-03-31

by

2020-03-31

KOF Economic Barometer, March 2020
The reading of the KOF Economic Barometer dropped drastically in March and is now with 92.9 well below its long-​term average. Accordingly, the Swiss economy can be expected to see a marked decline in growth rates in the near future. This plunge of the Barometer reflects the first economic consequences of the accelerated spread of the Coronavirus.

Read More »

USD/CHF Price Analysis: Intraday positive move stalls near the 0.9590 confluence region

2020-03-31

by

2020-03-31

USD/CHF 1-hourly chart
USD/CHF finds decent support near 0.9500 mark and snaps four days of losing streak. The set-up warrants some caution before positioning for any further recovery move. The USD/CHF pair found a decent support near the key 0.9500 psychological mark and staged a goodish recovery on the first day of a new trading week, snapping four consecutive days of losing streak.

Read More »

Swiss real estate market suffers fallout from epidemic

2020-03-31

by

2020-03-31

The Covid-19 crisis could spell an end to the previously rosy situation for Switzerland’s real estate investors. Investors in residential property look back on a successful 2019 both in terms of value increase and of returns. Forecasts for the current year were optimistic until recently, for both property owners and renters.

Read More »

Swiss firms rush to claim emergency coronavirus loans

2020-03-31

by

2020-03-31

A third of a CHF20 billion ($21 billion) fund offering state guaranteed loans to small and medium sized Swiss companies has been used up just four days after being introduced. The loan facility has already promised CHF6.6 billion in funding of up to CHF500,000 to nearly 32,000 firms – an average of CHF207,000 per company.

Read More »

(No) Dollars And (No) Sense: Eighty Argentinas

2020-03-31

by

2020-03-31

India Official Reserve Assets, 2016-2020
India like many emerging market countries around the world holds an enormous stockpile of foreign exchange reserves. According to the latest weekly calculation published by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), the country’s central bank, that total was a bit less than half a trillion. While it sounds impressive, when the month began the balance was much closer to that mark.

Read More »

Oren Cass and the Conservative Critique of Pure Laissez-Faire

2020-03-31

by

2020-03-31

Oren Cass is the executive director of American Compass (AmericanCompass.org), a conservative think tank that stresses the importance of family and domestic industry, in opposition to a singleminded devotion to economic efficiency. Cass was previously a senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute for Policy Research, and was the domestic policy director for Mitt Romney’s 2012 presidential campaign.

Read More »

FX Daily, March 30: Monday Blues

2020-03-30

by

2020-03-30

Overview: Risk appetites remain in check as the spread of the coronavirus is leading to more and longer shutdowns.  Asia Pacific equities fell with Australia, the notable exception.  Its benchmark rallied a record 7%, encouraged by additional stimulus measures.

Read More »

Record exports drive up Swiss chocolate sales

2020-03-30

by

2020-03-30

The value of Swiss chocolate exports topped CHF1 billion ($1.05 billion) for the first time last year, led by increased demand from Canada, the United States, China, the Middle East and Singapore. Domestic consumption of the delicacy also grew slightly following declining demand in previous years. Sales for Swiss chocolate makers rose 2.2% in 2019 to reach almost CHF1.79 billion.

Read More »

USD/CHF hits ten-day lows near 0.9550 as the greenback remains under pressure

2020-03-30

by

2020-03-30

USD/CHF Technical outlook
US Dollar Index tumbles to fresh weekly lows at 98.73, down 4% from the top.  US data: Consumer Sentiment Index suffers second-largest monthly decline in March. The USD/CHF pair is falling for the fourth consecutive day amid an ongoing sell-off of the US dollar. The DXY approached earlier on Friday the 100.00 area and recently bottomed at 98.73, the lowest level since March 17. 

Read More »

France drops blocks on face mask exports to Switzerland

2020-03-30

by

2020-03-30

After Germany, France has lifted restrictions on the delivery of hygienic face masks to Switzerland. Some two million masks are needed each day, according to the Federal Office for Public Health. The French embassy to Switzerland made the announcementexternal link on Saturday, paving the way for two shipments of FFP2 hygienic masks to go ahead from France to Switzerland.

Read More »

The New (Forced) Frugality

2020-03-30

by

2020-03-30

Personal Saving Rate, 1960-2020
There are only two ways to survive a decline in income and net worth: slash expenses or default on debt. In post-World War II America, the cultural zeitgeist viewed frugality as a choice: permanent economic growth and federal anti-poverty programs steadily reduced the number of people in deep economic hardship (i.e. forced frugality) and raised the living standards of those in hardship to the point that the majority of households could choose to be...

Read More »

The Last Thing We Need Right Now Is Bernie’s Proposed Tax on Financial Transactions

2020-03-30

by

2020-03-30

When one imagines working on Wall Street, he envisions stock traders scrambling to place buy or sell orders, perhaps even some puts or options. Today’s powerful artificial intelligence tools allow traders to game stock market trading. In some ways, this computer-driven high-frequency trading resembles actual gaming in that it may seem as if one is simulating various trading scenarios.

Read More »

Drivers for the Week Ahead

2020-03-30

by

2020-03-30

Markets continue to digest the implications of the Fed’s bazooka moment last week. The data highlight this week will be March jobs data Friday; key manufacturing sector data will come out earlier in the week. On Friday, BOC delivered an emergency 50 bp rate cut to 0.25% and started QE.

Read More »

Coronavirus: Swiss test rate now higher than South Korea’s

2020-03-29

by

2020-03-29

This morning, Switzerland’s federal government announced the number of Covid-19 tests conducted so far in Switzerland. South Korea, a nation often cited among those with high test rates, now trails Switzerland on the number per capita tests it has conducted.

Read More »

Coronavirus: Why staying home is merely a recommendation in Switzerland

2020-03-29

by

2020-03-29

Readers of swissinfo.ch have many questions about the way the Swiss are handling the pandemic. In this first collection of answers, we tackle social distancing measures and how the population is taking them onboard. Switzerland has progressively tightened measures aimed at limiting the spread of Covid-19 across the country.

Read More »

It’s Not About Jobless Claims Today, It’s About What Will Hamper Job Growth In A Few Months

2020-03-29

by

2020-03-29

Two Labor Stories, 1995-2019
You’ve no doubt heard about the jobless claims number. At an incomprehensible 3.28 million Americans filing for unemployment for the first time, this level far exceeded the wildest expectations as the economic costs of the shutdown continue to come in far more like the worst case. And as bad as 3mm is, the real hidden number is likely much higher.

Read More »

More than Half of All US COVID-19 Deaths Occur in Only Four States

2020-03-29

by

2020-03-29

Covid-19 Deaths as a % of All US Deaths
As of March 24, nearly 30 percent of all the COVID-19 deaths in the United States have occurred in New York state. Of the 910 deaths reported so far in the US, 271 happened in New York. Washington State was in second place, with 13 percent of the nation's COVID-19 deaths.

Read More »

Switzerland Peps Up SMEs

2020-03-28

by

2020-03-28

How Switzerland peps up SMEs: Banks are encouraged to extend credit (at 0%). The treasury guarantees the loans. The SNB refinances banks and accepts the guaranteed loans as collateral. Fast and efficient. Eventually, some of these loans will turn into grants of course. But that’s ok; the first-best response to a shock with asymmetric effects does involve transfers if markets are incomplete.

Read More »

Companies contemplate bleak coronavirus outlook

2020-03-28

by

2020-03-28

Swiss companies are reporting slumping sales, cashflow problems and bottlenecks in the supply of crucial materials as the coronavirus crisis hits the economy. However, a survey also found that three out of four firms are satisfied with a CHF42 billion ($43 billion) state bailout package.

Read More »