Monthly Archive: April 2018

Trilogie des Fiatgeldes (II): Das fraktionelle Reservesystem, die Mutter aller Finanzkrisen und die Quelle der Ohnmacht der Notenbanken

2018-04-02

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2018-04-02

Money
Genial aus der Sicht der Banken war, dass sie das fraktionelle Reservesystem in das Zeitalter des FED hinüberretten konnten – sie waren selber erstaunt, dass ihnen dies gelang und der Geniestreich nur von einigen wenigen Senatoren und Beobachtern durchschaut wurde. So konnten sie ihr eigenes Buchgeld weiterhin emittieren und dies einzig und allein mit dem Versprechen, es jederzeit in Bargeld umzutauschen.

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FX Daily, April 02: Monday Blues

2018-04-02

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2018-04-02

The US dollar drifted a little lower in Asia to start the week while equities had a slightly heavier bias. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slipped 0.1%. European bourses are mostly closed for the extended Easter holiday, while the S&P is set to start the new quarter about 0.3% lower. Although the subdued price action may not reflect it, there have been several new economic reports and developments.

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FX Weekly Preview: The Start of Q2

2018-04-02

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2018-04-02

The chief uncertainty has shifted from monetary policy and macroeconomics to the increase of volatility in the stock markets and the prospects of a trade war. Some of the major benchmarks, including the S&P 500, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index, the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, and Shanghai Composite held above the February lows in the retreat during the second half of March.

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EasyJet foresees Swiss market growth

2018-04-02

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2018-04-02

In an interview given to the SonntagsZeitung on Sunday, EasyJet CEO Johan Lundgren described the company's strategy for increasing its already-growing share of passengers in the Swiss market. Lundgren told the German-language paper than in recent years, the low-cost British airline has counted about one million additional passengers in the Swiss market annually, and anticipates continued growth thanks to a combination of targeted advertising and...

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Emerging Markets: Preview of the Week Ahead

2018-04-02

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2018-04-02

EM FX was mostly stronger last week, despite the dollar’s firm tone against the majors. Best EM performers on the week were MXN, KRW, and COP while the worst were ZAR, INR, and PEN. US jobs data poses the biggest risk to EM this week, as US yields have been falling ahead of the data. Indeed, the current US 10-year yield of 2.74% is the lowest since February 6.

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What If All the Cheap Stuff Goes Away?

2018-04-02

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2018-04-02

GSCI/S&P 500 Ratio, 1971 - 2017
Nothing stays the same in dynamic systems, and it's inevitable that the current glut of low costs / cheap stuff will give way to scarcities that cannot be filled at current low prices. One of the books I just finished reading is The Fate of Rome: Climate, Disease, and the End of an Empire.

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Tax and spend – canton of Geneva generates a surprise budget surplus

2018-04-01

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2018-04-01

Geneva Finances
When Geneva’s finances make the news it is typically bad. At the end of 2016, the canton had debts of CHF 12.5 billion, equal to 153% of its income. In January 2018, the rating agency Standard and Poors gave Geneva a negative outlook citing risks related to the canton’s poorly funded public pension scheme.

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Shell accuses former executive of hiding bribes in Switzerland

2018-04-01

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2018-04-01

Royal Dutch Shell has filed a criminal complaint against a former employee it suspects of stashing kickbacks from the sale of a Nigerian oil field in Swiss bank accounts. The energy company is already being investigated over another deal there.

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“Stars Are Slowly Aligning For Gold” – Frisby

2018-04-01

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2018-04-01

Gold Spot, Q1 2011 - 2018
“Stars Are Slowly Aligning For Gold” – Frisby. Gold ends March with a third-quarterly gain, a feat not seen since 2011. Impressive gains seen despite tightening of monetary policy from Federal Reserve. Frisby – gold is set to break through technical resistance of $1,360. Gold’s safe haven role back in focus with Trump trade wars and increasing geopolitical tensions. Now is opportune time for investors to buy gold, ahead of next quarter.

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Short Term Market Signals

2018-04-01

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2018-04-01

SPX Daily, RUT Daily and SPX-RUT Ratio, Dec 2016 - Mar 2018
We reviewed the daily charts after yesterday’s close and noticed that the Russell 2000 Index, the NYA and transportation stocks all exhibited relative strength (the same holds actually for the DJIA), particularly vs. the FANG/NDX group. This is happening just as the SPX is battling with an extremely important trendline. As we pointed out before, relative strength in the RUT in particular served as a short term reversal signal ever since the...

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