Monthly Archive: April 2016

Germany’s AFD leader Frauke Petry wants ‘more Switzerland for Germany’

2016-04-24

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2016-04-24

Fauke Petry, leader of the Alternative for Germany (AfD), believes Germany “needs more Switzerland … more democracy” and that Switzerland is some way ahead of her country when it comes to a “culture of democracy”.

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Switzerland Readies Military In Preparation For A New Wave Of Migrants

2016-04-23

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2016-04-23

According to The BBC, the most asylum claims in 2015 occurred in Germany, which saw >500,000...   With the main route (reportedly shut down) being from Turkey to Greece, and up through the Balkans... With Syrians making up the bulk of migrants tryi...

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Weekly Speculative Positions: Reduction of US Dollar Exposure at What may be the Bottom

2016-04-23

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2016-04-23

Speculators in the futures market continued to press a bearish view of the US dollar the CFTC reporting week ending April 19. For one and half month traders continue to increase their long CHF position against the dollar. It has risen to 7.3k contracts.

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Dollar’s Technical Tone Improves

2016-04-23

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2016-04-23

It is not that the US dollar had a particularly good week.  It was mixed.  The best performers were sterling and the Canadian dollar. The pound led with a 1.6% gain, followed closely by the Canadian dollar.   The latest polls suggest that tho...

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Russian Aggression Unmasked (Sort Of)

2016-04-23

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2016-04-23

  Provocative Fighter Jocks Back in 2014, a Russian jet made headlines when it passed several times close to the USS Donald Cook in the Black Sea. As CBS reported at the time:   “A Pentagon spokesperson told CBS Radio that a Russian SU-24 fighter jet...

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Rational Insanity

2016-04-23

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2016-04-23

  Intel Employees Get RIF’d Dark storm clouds gather along the economic horizon.  They multiply ominously with each passing day.  The recovery, weak as it has been, has run for nearly seven years.  Now it appears to be sputtering and stalling out.   ...

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A Historic Rally in Gold Stocks – and Most Investors Missed It

2016-04-22

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2016-04-22

  Buy Low, Sell High? It is an old truism and everybody has surely heard it more than once. If you want to make money in the stock market, you’re supposed to buy low and sell high. Simple, right?   Successful stock market investing in two simple step...

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The State of the Bull

2016-04-22

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2016-04-22

(here is a draft of my monthly column for a Chinese paper) The US dollar has had a rough few months.  It has fallen against most major and emerging market currencies this year.  A critical issue for global investors and policymakers is whether ...

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Emerging Markets: What has Changed

2016-04-22

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2016-04-22

(from my colleague Dr. Win Thin)China’s central bank may be leaning less dovish Turkey has a new central bank governor Argentina issued external debt for the first time since it defaulted 15 years ago Brazil's lower house voted to impeach Preside...

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FX Daily, April 22: Capital Markets Mostly Consolidate, Yen Drops

2016-04-22

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2016-04-22

Equity markets are seeing this week's gains trimmed after the S&P 500 fell 0.5% yesterday, recording its biggest loss in two weeks.  Disappointing earnings in some tech leaders spurred profit-taking, The US 10-year Treasuries are consolidati...

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Swiss wage index 2015: Nominal wages increase by 0.4 percent and real wages by 1.5 percent due to negative inflation

2016-04-22

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2016-04-22

FSO, Wages and Working Conditions (0353-1604-40) Swiss wage index 2015 Neuchâtel, 22.04.2016 (FSO) – The Swiss nominal wage index rose by +0.4% on average in 2015 compared with 2014. It settled at 103.7 points (base 2010 = 100). G...

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100 Years of Mismanagement

2016-04-21

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2016-04-21

  Lost From the Get-Go There must be some dark corner of Hell warming up for modern, mainstream economists. They helped bring on the worst bubble ever… with their theories of efficient markets and modern portfolio management. They failed to see it fo...

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Japanese Capital Flows: Six Observations

2016-04-21

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2016-04-21

The following observations are drawn from the weekly report of Japan’s Ministry of Finance unless noted otherwise.  We use the weekly data instead of monthly to identify changes of trend earlier.  We use simple convention of the week by the last rather than the first day. That means that the report for the week ending April …

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FX Daily, April 21: ECB Takes Center Stage

2016-04-21

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2016-04-21

The ECB meeting is the session's highlight.  In recognition of the risk that ECB President Draghi expresses displeasure with the premature tightening of financial conditions through the exchange rate channel is encouraged a modest bout of euro s...

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The Shocking Reason For FATCA… And What Comes Next

2016-04-21

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2016-04-21

Submitted by Nick Giambruno via InterntionalMan.com, If you’ve never heard of the Foreign Account Tax Compliance Act (FATCA), you’re not alone. Few people have, and even fewer fully grasp the terrible things it foreshadows. FATCA is a U.S. ...

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Is the Stock Market Overvalued?

2016-04-20

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2016-04-20

  Dismal Earnings, Extreme Valuations The current earnings season hasn’t been very good so far. Companies continue to “beat expectations” of course, but this is just a silly game. The stock market’s valuation is already between the highest and third ...

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Status of 9/11 Bill and the Saudi Threat

2016-04-20

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2016-04-20

There continues to be much discussion among investors of New York Times report last weekend in which a Saudi official threatened to sell $750 bln of US Treasuries and assets if a bill that would allow families of victims to sue the Saudi governm...

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Fighting Recessions with Hot Air

2016-04-20

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2016-04-20

   “Prepping” for Recession GUALFIN, Argentina – Stocks are going up all over the world. Meanwhile, it appears to us that the U.S. economy is going down. Go figure. For instance, a labor-market index created by Fed economists… and closely watched by ...

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FX Daily April 20: Bulls’ Charge Stalls, while Greenback Consolidates Losses

2016-04-20

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2016-04-20

The US dollar has been largely confined to yesterday’s ranges against the major currencies. China’s yuan slipped lower for the first time in four sessions, while the Shanghai Composite fell 2.3%, the most since the end of February.   While a few equity markets in Asia managed to follow suit after US equity market gains carried …

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Making Sense of China’s Gold Fix and Hungary’s Dim Sum Offering

2016-04-19

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2016-04-19

Earlier today, China launched its first gold fix.  It will offer a fixing twice a day going forward yuan. The Shanghai Gold Exchange established the fix the same way it is done in London and New York, by prices submitted by financial institutions.  In China’s case, 18 institutions, including two foreign banks, participate in the …

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