| Sign up for my free weekly newsletter here: https://www.mauldineconomics.com/go/JM563Y/YTB The tariff situation is evolving fast. On Tuesday, imports from Canada and Mexico faced 25% tariffs. On Wednesday, President Trump granted US automakers a 30-day tariff exemption. On Thursday, he paused most of the new tariffs until April 2. Where will things stand when this interview goes lives on Friday, March 7? Americans buy a lot of stuff from Canada and Mexico—a combined $918.6 billion in 2024. This includes oil, electronics, cables, machinery of all types, medical instruments, furniture, commodities… A hefty 22.8% of vehicles sold in the US come from Mexico. The assumption is tariffs will lead to higher prices. Will they? I don’t think anyone knows, but it is worth considering a less reported potential outcome: Deflation. As today’s guest @TheJaredDillianShow says: "The conventional wisdom is that tariffs are super inflationary. We're going to be paying 25% more for all these goods. It causes inflation. Actually, what tariffs do is they slow down the economy and it's a deflationary force." Add in the potential for a recession and higher unemployment, which Jared says could rise to 6%–8%, and you have even more deflationary forces at work. Read Jared Dillian’s free weekly market letter here: https://www.jareddillianmoney.com/go/JD053AF024/MEC Sign up for Ed D’Agostino’s free newsletter here: https://www.mauldineconomics.com/go/JM563Y/YTB Follow Ed D’Agostino on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ed-d-agostino-415475296/ Timestamps: 00:00 – Introduction 01:10 – Time to worry about a recession? 04:10 – Why interest rates are going down 07:15 – Bear market ahead? 11:50 – Why tariffs are deflationary 15:20 – The tariff offset 16:03 – The dollar is following the 2017 pattern 18:35 – Bullish on bonds 20:06 – Is oil bottoming? 21:22 – The Awesome Portfolio |
Each week, investors and financial professionals around the globe turn to John Mauldin to better understand Wall Street, global markets, and the drivers of the world economy. And for good reason. John is a noted financial expert, a New York Times best-selling author, a pioneering online commentator, and the publisher of one of the first publications to provide investors with free, unbiased information and guidance—Thoughts from the Frontline—one of the most widely read investment newsletters in the world.
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