| Sign up for my free newsletter here: https://www.mauldineconomics.com/go/JM563N/MEC Shehzad Qazi, the managing director at China Beige Book, pegs the probability of a US-China trade war in 2025 at 100%. He expects Trump to sign tariff legislation on day one of his second term. In our interview, Shehzad discusses what this means for US-China relations, along with China’s staggering trade surpluses, and how Europe and emerging markets fit into the looming trade war. We also cover the truth about China’s real estate crisis and the Taiwan problem. Shehzad says Taiwan might be less interested in defending itself against China than many here in the US would like. What does slower growth in China mean for the global economy? Is India the next China? Can China become a consumer-driven economy in the near term? Get Shehzad’s take in our interview. Learn more about China Beige Book here: https://www.chinabeigebook.com Follow Shehzad Qazi on X (Twitter) here: https://www.x.com/shehzadhqazi Follow Shehzad Qazi on LinkedIn here: https://www.linkedin.com/in/shehzad-qazi-19133655/ Sign up for Ed D’Agostino’s free newsletter here: https://www.mauldineconomics.com/go/JM563M/YTB Follow Ed D’Agostino on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ed-d-agostino-415475296/ Time Stamps: 00:00 – Introduction 01:32 – Trump tariff outlook 2025 04:03 – Europe-China trade relations 06:28 – Inside China’s economy 09:59 – Xi doesn’t care about the stock market 12:45 – China’s demographic cliff 18:33 – Shifting China-India relations 21:13 – Outlook on Taiwan |
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How China Dominates the Global Export Business | Louis Gave
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Decoupling the US economy from China’s is essential to strengthening our long-term economic resiliency and national security. Meanwhile, China is doing the same thing—decoupling its economy from ours. Yet China’s export business is booming.
Gavekal CEO and renowned China expert Louis Gave says that China now exports more to other emerging markets than it does to the US and western Europe. Here’s Louis:
“China’s trade is absolutely booming. The investments that China made 10 years ago in things like the One Belt One Road, the Silk Road Fund, the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, all the things that we laughed at and said, ‘Oh, you want to have trade with Kazakhstan? Who cares? Sure, have it. It’s
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