How Smart Nations Exploit Trade Wars | Jacob Shapiro

Published on February 14, 2025

by
John Mauldin
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My friend Jacob Shapiro is back for another Global Macro Update interview, and he sees ample opportunities for investors who can tune out white-noise media and look around:

"If you go back to previous eras like this, the 1890s is the one that I like to compare it to… These are times of incredible technological innovation… we're on a total energy regime change for the first time in a hundred years. There is an awful lot of opportunity out there… For the next five, 10 years, these are the years of plenty. Prepare for the years of famine ahead by making good decisions now."

Jacob is the head of geopolitical and macro research at Bespoke Group. In our interview, we discuss where some of these opportunities lie in our multipolar world, including Indonesia and Brazil. He likens the latter to the US because of its vast energy resources and low-cost ag commodity production.

We also cover economic resiliency, US energy security, and the ripple effects of tariffs on US-China relations. Jacobs explains why the steel/aluminum tariffs are different than the initial China-Canada-Mexico tariffs, which were really tools for leverage.

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Timestamps:
00:00 – Introduction
00:54 – The unintended consequences of tariffs
06:17 – The US doesn’t make anything anymore
15:31 – Beijing doesn’t want a trade war
21:42 – Korea, aka the first US-China War
26:22 – Ukraine’s future and what Europe wants
29:38 – Critical German elections
34:49 – Emerging market opportunities
37:44 – Energy security and US advantage

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About John Mauldin

Each week, investors and financial professionals around the globe turn to John Mauldin to better understand Wall Street, global markets, and the drivers of the world economy. And for good reason. John is a noted financial expert, a New York Times best-selling author, a pioneering online commentator, and the publisher of one of the first publications to provide investors with free, unbiased information and guidance—Thoughts from the Frontline—one of the most widely read investment newsletters in the world.

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