| Sign up for my free newsletter here: https://www.mauldineconomics.com/go/JM563Z1/YTB Inflation is dropping quickly, and other concerning trends, including mass layoffs, are developing. But you wouldn’t know it from reading the headlines. QI Research founder Danielle DiMartino Booth has been calling attention to underreported recession signals since our last interview in May, when she highlighted rising store closures and job losses. As she said then, “There is no greater drag on inflation than job loss.” My concerns about a recession are rising daily. Auto loan delinquencies are soaring. And the number of major employers laying off workers now includes Chevron, BlackRock, Boeing, Southwest Airlines, Hewlett-Packard, Kohl’s, Meta, and Starbucks. Danielle argues that the inflation narrative has been overblown for some time, and that the data, including prices at the pump, now point in the opposite direction. Where does this leave us? Danielle believes the Fed will wait too long to cut rates, because it always does. Then it will have to cut rates deeper to compensate down the road. Read Danielle DiMartino Booth’s daily letter on Substack here: https://dimartinobooth.substack.com Sign up for Ed D’Agostino’s free newsletter here: https://www.mauldineconomics.com/go/JM563Z1/YTB Follow Ed D’Agostino on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ed-d-agostino-415475296/ Follow Ed D’Agostino on Twitter: https://www.x.com/EdDAgostino Timestamps: 00:00 – Introduction 01:52 – Trump’s first trade war 06:24 – Gas prices are coming down 09:23 – Wage inflation is over 12:42 – “Truflation” 19:48 – The year of the multibillion-dollar bankruptcy 23:47 – Demand-side effects of tariffs 27:11 – Danielle’s economic predictions |
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