Liquidity Cycle Turning: What Happens When Refinancing Stops | Michael Howell

2026-03-13

Geopolitical strategist Jacob Shapiro is back to break down the second- and third-order effects of the US-Israel coordinated military action in Iran—and what it means for global markets, energy, and the future of the Middle East.

Jacob lays out three major macro themes he’s been wrestling with: the end of the Gulf states’ vision as safe havens for global capital, the unprecedented vulnerability of the Strait of Hormuz as an energy chokepoint, and what this conflict reveals about the accelerating shift toward a multipolar world.

Also, the “why now?” question behind the strikes, the role of the IRGC and why the Venezuela playbook doesn’t work in Iran, China’s strategic positioning, and more.

Find out more about Jacob Shapiro here: https://jacobshapiro.com/

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2026-03-06

Eric Fine, portfolio manager at VanEck, joins us this week to break down the emerging market bond landscape in a wide-ranging conversation covering geopolitics, currencies, and why EM bonds may be one of the most compelling trades of the decade.

Eric explains how recent Middle East events created clear winners among oil-exporting emerging markets, why the dollar will slowly share its reserve status, and how 13 years of data supports the case that EM bonds offer roughly double the yield of developed market bonds at lower volatility.
The conversation also dives into the structural advantages EM countries hold and why these fundamentals are drawing attention from institutional investors and central banks alike.

Eric also shares the story behind VanEck’s actively managed EM bond ETF, the

2026-02-18

If you’ve participated in private placements, you’ve probably ended up with warrants as a "sweetener" – and if you listened to the conventional wisdom, you probably sold the stock and sat on the warrants, or ignored them entirely.

While most investors treat warrants as throwaway assets or confuse them with complex options strategies, John argues they are actually the "Venture Capital" of the public markets. They offer the kind of asymmetric upside that is usually reserved for Silicon Valley insiders, but with one major difference: anyone with a brokerage account can buy them.

I honestly had never met a dedicated warrants trader before John Pangere.

We get into the weeds on why the "efficient market hypothesis" completely fails here. Because these assets are too small for the massive

2026-01-23

I sat down with George Friedman of Geopolitical Futures to discuss his latest annual forecast, and what a conversation it turned out to be.

George walks us through what he calls the “re-anchoring” of the world order. The Cold War didn’t truly end with the fall of the Soviet Union—it ended in Ukraine, where Russia proved it couldn’t even take its neighbor. Now the US-China relationship has replaced the US-Russia dynamic as the world’s primary anchor, creating a fundamentally different situation.

We dig into the economic challenges both countries face, the future of NATO, and yes—I had to ask George about Greenland. George also shares his thoughts on what comes after Trump, the demographic crisis facing the developed world, and why Russia’s position has become increasingly precarious.

2025-12-10

This is one of my favorite interviews of 2025. I just sat down with Jeff deGraaf, founder of Renaissance Macro Research, to get his thoughts on markets, cycles, and risk.

Jeff built his career translating technical analysis into actionable investment strategies for institutional clients. Institutional Investor has named him the #1 technical analyst for over a decade.

In this conversation, he walks through Jeff’s market cycle clock—a framework that plots inflation against growth to forecast stock market returns—and explains why inflation matters more to stocks than GDP growth does.

We cover:
• Why trend following beats mean reversion for long-term investors
• How to identify bubbles—and what to do when you’re in one
• Where semiconductors and healthcare sit on the valuation spectrum

2025-11-26

Zero interest rates didn’t exist for 4,000 years of recorded history. Now CrossBorder Capital founder Michael Howell believes we’re about to find out why.

Howell developed his framework for tracking global liquidity while working at Salomon Brothers, where he watched capital move across trading desks in real time. One core insight: the ratio between debt and liquidity—not debt-to-GDP—is what actually predicts financial crises and asset bubbles.

In this interview we cover:

– How policymakers created the “everything bubble” with zero rates and excess liquidity
– Why $70 trillion of debt must be refinanced every year
– What happens as that debt comes due while Fed liquidity slows
– How to think about asset allocation at different points in the cycle
– Why China is driving gold prices

2025-10-31

Are we living through 1997/98 all over again? Former Wall Street trader Jared Dillian breaks down why today’s tech market looks eerily similar to the dot-com bubble—but we’re not at the peak yet.

We dive into the troubling rise of circular deals, where companies like Nvidia are investing billions in their own customers—just like Cisco did in the late nineties. Jared reminds us that “it’s never different.”

We haven’t had a real bear market in 17 years (outside the pandemic), and Jared raises a critical question: Will the magnitude of the coming drawdown be proportional to the length of this bull market?

Plus, Jared reveals how he wrote his upcoming book in just 10 days, and why it’s the guide nearly every investor should follow.

Learn more about Jared Dillian here:

2025-10-24

Jacob Shapiro, director of geopolitical research at the Bespoke Group, joins me to discuss the AI arms race.

Jacob compares AI to containerization, arguing the real opportunities lie in companies that leverage AI for productivity, not AI companies themselves.

You’ll also hear about India’s potential as a tech superpower—and why protecting proprietary data matters more than most companies realize. We also discuss Taiwan’s strategic importance, North American trade policy under the Trump administration, and how drug cartels impact Mexico’s relationship with the US.

Learn more about Jacob Shapiro here:
https://bespokegroup.io/people/

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