Immigration To China?

2024-11-16

No Crisis / No Stimulus

Check out Ed D’Agostino’s full conversation with Shehzad Qazi, the managing director at China Beige Book here: -Q0

2024-11-16

Trade War Incoming! ❗

Check out Ed D’Agostino’s full conversation with Shehzad Qazi, the managing director at China Beige Book here: -Q0

2024-11-15

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Shehzad Qazi, the managing director at China Beige Book, pegs the probability of a US-China trade war in 2025 at 100%. He expects Trump to sign tariff legislation on day one of his second term.

In our interview, Shehzad discusses what this means for US-China relations, along with China’s staggering trade surpluses, and how Europe and emerging markets fit into the looming trade war.

We also cover the truth about China’s real estate crisis and the Taiwan problem. Shehzad says Taiwan might be less interested in defending itself against China than many here in the US would like.

What does slower growth in China mean for the global economy? Is India the next China? Can China become a consumer-driven

2024-08-23

That old private equity model is mostly extinct. In its place, former Wall Street trader Jared Dillian sees an $8 trillion bubble, built on massive layers of debt across 17,000 private equity firms.

Jared says this bubble poses a systemic threat to the entire financial system, with the potential to implode in ways similar to what we experienced during the 2008 financial crisis. He also explains the opportunities it presents for investors who get ahead of it.

Jared just released a comprehensive white paper on the private equity bubble—and what he’s calling the “Big Short 2.0.” Access your FREE copy by clicking the link below.

Find Jared Dillian’s free exposé on private equity here:
https://www.jareddillianmoney.com/go/JD059AF031/MEC

Follow Jared Dillian on X (Twitter):

2024-08-09

After Russia invaded Ukraine, the US and its allies froze over $58 billion in assets from Russian oligarchs and blocked major Russian banks from using the international payment system, known as SWIFT. Did the US cross a line in terms of weaponizing the dollar and denying access to the global financial system—opening the door to other nations losing confidence in the US dollar?

Saleha Mohsin, a senior Washington correspondent for Bloomberg News and my guest today on Global Macro Update, pegs the watershed moment for dollar weaponization back decades earlier, to the aftermath of the Sept. 11 attacks. She covers this in detail in her book, Paper Soldiers, which has been one of my favorite geopolitical reads of the year.

We delve further into dollar weaponization in our interview, along

2024-08-02

As the US and its Western allies realign supply chains to strengthen economic resiliency, the cost of certain goods and commodities will go up. I call this “resiliency-driven inflation.”

I received a note from renowned economist Bill White about this, which prompted our interview. Bill is a former chairman of the Economic and Development Review Committee at the OECD. He has served at the Bank of Canada and Bank of England, and he is a long-time favorite speaker at the Mauldin Economics Strategic Investment Conference.

Bill and I share concerns about an extended era of both higher inflation and higher interest rates. He sees us moving from an age of plenty, which he pegs as roughly 1990 to 2020, to an age of scarcity. In our interview, he discusses the five key macroeconomic factors

2024-07-26

Something phenomenal happened in 2001. Humanity generated more information in a single year than it had in all of human history, combined, up to that point. Since then, the amount of information available to us has gone parabolic, as documented by former CIA media analyst Martin Gurri in his fascinating book, The Revolt of the Public.

Gurri explains the effects of this information “tsunami,” which underpinned events from the Arab Spring to Javier Milei’s ascendency in Argentina to the abrupt turnaround of China’s Zero-COVID policies.

The information tsunami has led to a breakdown in the public’s trust in institutions and the elites in charge. Many of us have sensed this happening for years now, but I believe Gurri has done the best job of articulating the nuances of this phenomenon.