Ex-Wall Street Trader: The $8 Trillion Bubble Ready to Burst | Jared Dillian

2024-08-09

After Russia invaded Ukraine, the US and its allies froze over $58 billion in assets from Russian oligarchs and blocked major Russian banks from using the international payment system, known as SWIFT. Did the US cross a line in terms of weaponizing the dollar and denying access to the global financial system—opening the door to other nations losing confidence in the US dollar?

Saleha Mohsin, a senior Washington correspondent for Bloomberg News and my guest today on Global Macro Update, pegs the watershed moment for dollar weaponization back decades earlier, to the aftermath of the Sept. 11 attacks. She covers this in detail in her book, Paper Soldiers, which has been one of my favorite geopolitical reads of the year.

We delve further into dollar weaponization in our interview, along

2024-08-02

As the US and its Western allies realign supply chains to strengthen economic resiliency, the cost of certain goods and commodities will go up. I call this “resiliency-driven inflation.”

I received a note from renowned economist Bill White about this, which prompted our interview. Bill is a former chairman of the Economic and Development Review Committee at the OECD. He has served at the Bank of Canada and Bank of England, and he is a long-time favorite speaker at the Mauldin Economics Strategic Investment Conference.

Bill and I share concerns about an extended era of both higher inflation and higher interest rates. He sees us moving from an age of plenty, which he pegs as roughly 1990 to 2020, to an age of scarcity. In our interview, he discusses the five key macroeconomic factors

2024-07-26

Something phenomenal happened in 2001. Humanity generated more information in a single year than it had in all of human history, combined, up to that point. Since then, the amount of information available to us has gone parabolic, as documented by former CIA media analyst Martin Gurri in his fascinating book, The Revolt of the Public.

Gurri explains the effects of this information “tsunami,” which underpinned events from the Arab Spring to Javier Milei’s ascendency in Argentina to the abrupt turnaround of China’s Zero-COVID policies.

The information tsunami has led to a breakdown in the public’s trust in institutions and the elites in charge. Many of us have sensed this happening for years now, but I believe Gurri has done the best job of articulating the nuances of this phenomenon.

2024-06-28

We are entering a golden age of macro investing says Harris Kupperman, or “Kuppy” as he’s colloquially known.

Kuppy is the founder and CIO of Praetorian Capital, where he publishes an excellent, free investor letter (link below) that I read regularly. In it, he’s written about the “great macro dreamscape,” where the world unravels largely in response to runaway government debt.

While many of Kuppy’s readers took his forecasts in a negative light (and there will be negative fallout, particularly inflation), he is more focused on the opportunities it will create for macro investors.

We dig into those opportunities in detail in this interview, with Kuppy sharing specific areas—including offshore energy—that he likes. We also discuss his success with uranium, and how our tense

2024-05-24

Will the stock market rise another 50% by 2030? Dr. Ed Yardeni believes there’s a substantial chance this could happen. We discuss why in this Global Macro Update interview.

Dr. Ed’s thesis cites increasing productivity, fueled by advances in technology. This aligns with my AI/productivity boom theme: AI and automation will supplement workers, who are in short supply, making companies much more productive.

Dr. Ed says, “Productivity is sort of fairy dust: It boosts real GDP, it keeps a lid on inflation, it allows wages to rise faster than prices, and it’s great for profit margins.”

Dr. Ed is a former chief investment strategist at Prudential Equity Group and at Deutsche Bank’s US Equity Group. Today, he runs Yardeni Research. His chief markets strategist, Eric Wallerstein (formerly of

2024-05-10

QI Research founder and former Dallas Fed adviser Danielle DiMartino Booth discusses recession signals, how America lost its ability to budget, and whether we’re barreling toward stagflation.

Danielle unpacks a litany of troubling economic data in our interview. Layoffs are spreading from tech to retail, manufacturing, and transportation. And for the first time ever, Americans are paying more to service their non-mortgage debt than their mortgage debt.

Danielle and I also cover AI’s impact on jobs, short-sighted Covid-era policies, and the coming “condo-mageddon.”

Investors, watch to the end for Danielle’s thoughtful guidance on what this all means for the markets and where to look for safe havens.

Learn about Danielle DiMartino Booth’s letter, The Daily Feather, here:

2024-04-12

RiskHedge Chief Analyst Stephen McBride says, “99% of crypto is absolute garbage. I wouldn’t touch it. I think the other 1% will change the world.”

Stephen runs a crypto advisory that’s outperformed bitcoin—even through the last crypto crash.
In this interview, he shares his crypto portfolio’s largest holding, explains how new bitcoin ETFs will change crypto investing, and shares real-world applications for the blockchain, including one that could unseat Google Maps.

Watch to learn the safest ways to invest in crypto and what to avoid in this vast ecosystem filled with crooks and charlatans.

Click the link below for a special offer on Venture, Stephen’s crypto investment letter.

Learn more about the right way to invest in crypto, with Stephen’s crypto advisory, RiskHedge Venture,

2024-04-05

Inflation is proving stickier than anyone would have hoped. Lyn Alden, the author of Broken Money: Why Our Financial System Is Failing Us and How We Can Make It Better and my guest today, offers a cogent explanation of why, likening it to the fiscal-driven inflation of the 1940s.

Lyn explains how the pandemic-era fiscal stimulus continues to affect our economy, along with increasing geopolitical instability and the runaway federal deficit. We also discuss bitcoin’s special role in emerging markets, vulnerabilities in our banking system, and the problem with India’s central bank digital currency.

Go here to learn about the Strategic Investment Conference:
https://www.mauldineconomics.com/go/JM543Z31/MEC

Go here to learn more about Lyn Alden: https://www.lynalden.com

Follow Lyn Alden