The Bond Market Is Exposing the Truth About the US Economy | Neil Dutta

2026-02-20

Is there really an oil glut? What is China doing with all that crude? And is the US shale boom finally running out of steam?

Ed D’Agostino of Mauldin Economics sits down with Jan Stuart, global energy strategist at Piper Sandler and one of Wall Street’s sharpest oil analysts, for a wide-ranging conversation on the state of global oil markets heading into 2026.

Jan cuts through the noise on the so-called oil surplus, explains why OPEC’s “Pump for Trump” strategy didn’t crash prices, and reveals why China’s massive inventory buildup may be as much a war-preparedness move as an economic one. He also shares his outlook on US shale’s long-term trajectory, the untapped potential in Venezuela, the growing significance of offshore production, and why oil demand growth could be one of the big

2026-02-13

Gavekal CEO Louis Gave joins me today for an insightful (and timely) conversation about emerging markets, China’s manufacturing edge, Japanese bond yields, and the broken relationship between Canada and the US.

If you’re discovering emerging markets for the first time (or think you already understand them), you need to hear this conversation because simplifying the opportunity abroad into one big blob is a mistake.

Louis helps reframe how we should think about investing in emerging markets, covering the lenses that matter most. We also dive into why the old 60/40 portfolio is dead, why Louis believes energy is the new anti-fragile asset, and more.

Find out more about Louis Gave here: https://research.gavekal.com/author/louis-vincent-gave/
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2026-02-06

The investment playbook has changed. Politics and geopolitics are no longer just background noise—they’re the foundation of every macro trade. In this conversation, Marko Papic, chief strategist at BCA Research and the godfather of “GeoMacro,” breaks down how investors need to completely rethink their approach to markets.

In this week’s Global Macro Update, we cover:

– Wild market swings: precious metals, dollar volatility, and Fed chair speculation
– Whether the dollar is in jeopardy of losing reserve currency status
– Why Europe is more investable than you may think—and the case for European equities
– The demographic solution no one is talking about: high-quality migration flows
– Defense spending rotation: Why European defense contractors are just getting started

“I don’t think

2026-01-14

Liz Ann Sonders, Chief Investment Strategist at Charles Schwab, joins me to discuss AI’s evolution, which sectors to watch now, and what’s driving markets in 2026.

Liz Ann breaks down a common misconception about the Mag 7: Nvidia was the top contributor to S&P 500 returns in 2025, yet 74 stocks did better on pure price performance. Only two of the seven “Mag 7” stocks beat the index. This distinction between contribution and performance matters for how investors construct their portfolios.

We also discuss the difference between market “uncertainty” and “instability”—Liz Ann argues the current environment is better described by the latter, given the non-linear nature of policy announcements around tariffs and trade.

Our conversation ends with the most valuable takeaway: FOMO, HODL,

2026-01-08

Many investors worry about China weaponizing its US Treasury holdings, but they might be looking in the wrong direction.

Taiwan holds nearly as much US debt as China—roughly $800 billion. But here’s what makes Taiwan’s position uniquely dangerous: private insurance companies own most of these Treasuries, not the government. These insurers hedge their holdings and face strict liquidation requirements.

In this conversation, I sit down with Lyric Hughes Hale, Editor in Chief at EconVue, and Eric Huang, a Taiwan-based geopolitical analyst and former deputy representative to the US for Taiwan’s KMT Party. Together, they’ve uncovered a systemic risk hiding in plain sight.

As Eric explains, even a credible rumor of Chinese aggression could trigger mass redemption requests from Taiwanese

2025-11-26

Zero interest rates didn’t exist for 4,000 years of recorded history. Now CrossBorder Capital founder Michael Howell believes we’re about to find out why.

Howell developed his framework for tracking global liquidity while working at Salomon Brothers, where he watched capital move across trading desks in real time. One core insight: the ratio between debt and liquidity—not debt-to-GDP—is what actually predicts financial crises and asset bubbles.

In this interview we cover:

– How policymakers created the “everything bubble” with zero rates and excess liquidity
– Why $70 trillion of debt must be refinanced every year
– What happens as that debt comes due while Fed liquidity slows
– How to think about asset allocation at different points in the cycle
– Why China is driving gold prices

2025-10-24

Jacob Shapiro, director of geopolitical research at the Bespoke Group, joins me to discuss the AI arms race.

Jacob compares AI to containerization, arguing the real opportunities lie in companies that leverage AI for productivity, not AI companies themselves.

You’ll also hear about India’s potential as a tech superpower—and why protecting proprietary data matters more than most companies realize. We also discuss Taiwan’s strategic importance, North American trade policy under the Trump administration, and how drug cartels impact Mexico’s relationship with the US.

Learn more about Jacob Shapiro here:
https://bespokegroup.io/people/

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https://bit.ly/4hqqiaR

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2025-10-20

There’s a pattern with Dr. Ed Yardeni’s predictions: he’s usually right. In our new interview, Dr. Ed explains why the labor market is in a “funk,” how retiring baby boomers are propping up consumer spending, and how AI is impacting entry-level hiring.

We also discuss why lowering rates could create a melt-up in the markets, China’s economic challenges, and whether the price of gold will reach $10,000 by the end of the decade.

Get Dr. Ed’s take on Fed policy, bitcoin, and the Mag 7 by watching our interview now.

Learn more about Dr. Ed Yardeni here:
https://yardeni.com/

Sign up for Ed D’Agostino’s free newsletter here:
https://www.mauldineconomics.com/global-macro-update?utm_source=YTB&utm_medium=SM&utm_campaign=JM-563&utm_content=JM563SM50017

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