The Great US Asset Misprice: Where Smart Money Is Going | Marko Papic

2026-02-27

The bond market is trying to tell you something, and most people aren’t listening.

Neil, my guest this week at Global Macro Update, lists several bullish factors: mortgage rates have dropped, AI CapEx is boosting equity prices, tax refund season should boost consumer spending, and the effect of last year’s rate cuts should show up around now. And yet yields are drifting lower.

Neil explains what the bond market is really signaling—and why he’s more cautious on the economic outlook than the Wall Street consensus.

He was one of the few voices who pushed back against the recession narrative in 2022… and he was proven right. When someone with that track record turns cautious, it’s worth paying attention.

Whether you’re a long-duration bond bull or just trying to make sense of a confusing

2026-02-20

Is there really an oil glut? What is China doing with all that crude? And is the US shale boom finally running out of steam?

Ed D’Agostino of Mauldin Economics sits down with Jan Stuart, global energy strategist at Piper Sandler and one of Wall Street’s sharpest oil analysts, for a wide-ranging conversation on the state of global oil markets heading into 2026.

Jan cuts through the noise on the so-called oil surplus, explains why OPEC’s “Pump for Trump” strategy didn’t crash prices, and reveals why China’s massive inventory buildup may be as much a war-preparedness move as an economic one. He also shares his outlook on US shale’s long-term trajectory, the untapped potential in Venezuela, the growing significance of offshore production, and why oil demand growth could be one of the big

2026-02-13

Gavekal CEO Louis Gave joins me today for an insightful (and timely) conversation about emerging markets, China’s manufacturing edge, Japanese bond yields, and the broken relationship between Canada and the US.

If you’re discovering emerging markets for the first time (or think you already understand them), you need to hear this conversation because simplifying the opportunity abroad into one big blob is a mistake.

Louis helps reframe how we should think about investing in emerging markets, covering the lenses that matter most. We also dive into why the old 60/40 portfolio is dead, why Louis believes energy is the new anti-fragile asset, and more.

Find out more about Louis Gave here: https://research.gavekal.com/author/louis-vincent-gave/
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2026-01-23

I sat down with George Friedman of Geopolitical Futures to discuss his latest annual forecast, and what a conversation it turned out to be.

George walks us through what he calls the “re-anchoring” of the world order. The Cold War didn’t truly end with the fall of the Soviet Union—it ended in Ukraine, where Russia proved it couldn’t even take its neighbor. Now the US-China relationship has replaced the US-Russia dynamic as the world’s primary anchor, creating a fundamentally different situation.

We dig into the economic challenges both countries face, the future of NATO, and yes—I had to ask George about Greenland. George also shares his thoughts on what comes after Trump, the demographic crisis facing the developed world, and why Russia’s position has become increasingly precarious.

2026-01-08

Many investors worry about China weaponizing its US Treasury holdings, but they might be looking in the wrong direction.

Taiwan holds nearly as much US debt as China—roughly $800 billion. But here’s what makes Taiwan’s position uniquely dangerous: private insurance companies own most of these Treasuries, not the government. These insurers hedge their holdings and face strict liquidation requirements.

In this conversation, I sit down with Lyric Hughes Hale, Editor in Chief at EconVue, and Eric Huang, a Taiwan-based geopolitical analyst and former deputy representative to the US for Taiwan’s KMT Party. Together, they’ve uncovered a systemic risk hiding in plain sight.

As Eric explains, even a credible rumor of Chinese aggression could trigger mass redemption requests from Taiwanese

2025-12-10

This is one of my favorite interviews of 2025. I just sat down with Jeff deGraaf, founder of Renaissance Macro Research, to get his thoughts on markets, cycles, and risk.

Jeff built his career translating technical analysis into actionable investment strategies for institutional clients. Institutional Investor has named him the #1 technical analyst for over a decade.

In this conversation, he walks through Jeff’s market cycle clock—a framework that plots inflation against growth to forecast stock market returns—and explains why inflation matters more to stocks than GDP growth does.

We cover:
• Why trend following beats mean reversion for long-term investors
• How to identify bubbles—and what to do when you’re in one
• Where semiconductors and healthcare sit on the valuation spectrum

2025-11-14

Bruce Mehlman is one of Washington’s sharpest political strategists. We dive deep into the recent government shutdown—why it happened, who won, and what it means for investors. Bruce also breaks down the Democratic sweep in November’s off-year elections, the AI bubble, and the economic tailwinds Wall Street is ignoring: massive foreign investment commitments, banking deregulation, and surprisingly strong corporate earnings. We also discuss the K-shaped economy that’s dividing America, why inflation remains the single most powerful political issue, and what deregulation really means for investors. Finally, Bruce pulls out his crystal ball for predictions on the 2026 midterms and who’s positioning for 2028 presidential runs on both sides.

Read Bruce Mehlman’s free Substack here:

2025-10-20

There’s a pattern with Dr. Ed Yardeni’s predictions: he’s usually right. In our new interview, Dr. Ed explains why the labor market is in a “funk,” how retiring baby boomers are propping up consumer spending, and how AI is impacting entry-level hiring.

We also discuss why lowering rates could create a melt-up in the markets, China’s economic challenges, and whether the price of gold will reach $10,000 by the end of the decade.

Get Dr. Ed’s take on Fed policy, bitcoin, and the Mag 7 by watching our interview now.

Learn more about Dr. Ed Yardeni here:
https://yardeni.com/

Sign up for Ed D’Agostino’s free newsletter here:
https://www.mauldineconomics.com/global-macro-update?utm_source=YTB&utm_medium=SM&utm_campaign=JM-563&utm_content=JM563SM50017

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