Will the AI Bubble DESTROY the Middle Class? | Bruce Mehlman

2025-12-10

This is one of my favorite interviews of 2025. I just sat down with Jeff deGraaf, founder of Renaissance Macro Research, to get his thoughts on markets, cycles, and risk.

Jeff built his career translating technical analysis into actionable investment strategies for institutional clients. Institutional Investor has named him the #1 technical analyst for over a decade.

In this conversation, he walks through Jeff’s market cycle clock—a framework that plots inflation against growth to forecast stock market returns—and explains why inflation matters more to stocks than GDP growth does.

We cover:
• Why trend following beats mean reversion for long-term investors
• How to identify bubbles—and what to do when you’re in one
• Where semiconductors and healthcare sit on the valuation spectrum

2025-11-26

Zero interest rates didn’t exist for 4,000 years of recorded history. Now CrossBorder Capital founder Michael Howell believes we’re about to find out why.

Howell developed his framework for tracking global liquidity while working at Salomon Brothers, where he watched capital move across trading desks in real time. One core insight: the ratio between debt and liquidity—not debt-to-GDP—is what actually predicts financial crises and asset bubbles.

In this interview we cover:

– How policymakers created the “everything bubble” with zero rates and excess liquidity
– Why $70 trillion of debt must be refinanced every year
– What happens as that debt comes due while Fed liquidity slows
– How to think about asset allocation at different points in the cycle
– Why China is driving gold prices

2025-11-20

The CNN Fear and Greed Index hit extreme fear territory this week. Yet when Brent Donnelly surveyed investors, he found something different: a market repricing risk rather than fleeing from it entirely.

Brent runs Spectra Markets and remains one of the sharpest currency traders I know. His survey revealed that zero-revenue AI plays and debt-heavy infrastructure names are getting hammered while companies with actual cash flows hold up better. The pivot point came in late October with Meta’s earnings.

Brent’s survey found that 65% of respondents would rather short OpenAI at a $500 billion valuation than go long on a three-year horizon. Most believe AI is a bubble, but they don’t think it’s topped yet.

We also discuss what happens when OpenAI’s $20/month subscription model can’t support

2025-10-31

Are we living through 1997/98 all over again? Former Wall Street trader Jared Dillian breaks down why today’s tech market looks eerily similar to the dot-com bubble—but we’re not at the peak yet.

We dive into the troubling rise of circular deals, where companies like Nvidia are investing billions in their own customers—just like Cisco did in the late nineties. Jared reminds us that “it’s never different.”

We haven’t had a real bear market in 17 years (outside the pandemic), and Jared raises a critical question: Will the magnitude of the coming drawdown be proportional to the length of this bull market?

Plus, Jared reveals how he wrote his upcoming book in just 10 days, and why it’s the guide nearly every investor should follow.

Learn more about Jared Dillian here:

2025-10-24

Jacob Shapiro, director of geopolitical research at the Bespoke Group, joins me to discuss the AI arms race.

Jacob compares AI to containerization, arguing the real opportunities lie in companies that leverage AI for productivity, not AI companies themselves.

You’ll also hear about India’s potential as a tech superpower—and why protecting proprietary data matters more than most companies realize. We also discuss Taiwan’s strategic importance, North American trade policy under the Trump administration, and how drug cartels impact Mexico’s relationship with the US.

Learn more about Jacob Shapiro here:
https://bespokegroup.io/people/

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2025-10-20

There’s a pattern with Dr. Ed Yardeni’s predictions: he’s usually right. In our new interview, Dr. Ed explains why the labor market is in a “funk,” how retiring baby boomers are propping up consumer spending, and how AI is impacting entry-level hiring.

We also discuss why lowering rates could create a melt-up in the markets, China’s economic challenges, and whether the price of gold will reach $10,000 by the end of the decade.

Get Dr. Ed’s take on Fed policy, bitcoin, and the Mag 7 by watching our interview now.

Learn more about Dr. Ed Yardeni here:
https://yardeni.com/

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2025-09-12

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MBS Highway founder Barry Habib delivers some uncomfortable truths about the US housing market. If you’re wondering why your mortgage payment feels impossible or why your kids can’t afford to move out, this conversation explains why.

Barry walks through the real numbers behind housing affordability—spoiler: it’s not just about high prices. He explains why the common advice about needing 20% down is keeping people out of the market and shares some investment strategies most people don’t know exist.

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2025-07-24

Could another tariff shock rattle the markets?

It’s been a quiet summer for most investors. Jared Dillian doesn’t expect that to last. For Jared, the spring tariff meltdown broke the market—for good. And we may be due for a second tariff-driven sell-off this fall.

From the Fed’s future leadership to a looming boom in commodities, Jared shares his insights on how investors should navigate these uncertain times.

Find Jared Dillian’s latest research here:
https://www.jareddillianmoney.com/

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Timestamps:
00:00 – Introduction
01:30 – US Dollar