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Learning Wisdom
2021-03-09 at 00:01 (UTC 2) Link to this comment
Good points and nice to see another ForexLive video. In my mind I can’t stop thinking about the USD getting much stronger by the end of the year (and Oil at $80-$100) which is the opposite of what a lot of people have been saying for a long time. I’m not sure about timing but it just feels like most traders think it’s ‘impossible’ that the USD could rise given the federal reserve commitment to keeping rates low until they overshoot their inflation target even allowing it to keep going for awhile longer.
Also many traders state that with all of the liquidity out there that it’s impossible for stocks not to continue to rise but what if as the recovery moves ahead and countries recover from Covid there is more debate around regulation of Big Tech and more geopolitical and trade tensions with China? To me that could keep stock markets from going higher (along with a stronger USD) at the rates we have seen and that there could end up being divergence from the ‘booming’ recovery on Main Street during the 2nd half of 2021 and the (potentially) ranging stock market.
As the US economy starts to really accelerate growth in the 2nd half of 2021 I’d imagine a lot of pressure on Jerome Powell to start talking about when the Fed will taper their QE type programs and that constant questioning could be a positive for the USD.
It looks like Powell will be looking to adhere to his dashboard which looks at items such as the rate of job growth for people without a college degree etc so if those metrics improve I’m guessing he will be forced to back down on his commitment of no rate rises for the next 3 years. I don’t know but these thoughts have been floating in my mind for awhile and I’m no expert, just someone trying to learn. Forexlive is my favourite website for keeping up with market related news and analysis.
Adam Button
2021-03-09 at 16:17 (UTC 2) Link to this comment
I agree with you. This week, we're seeing non-stop US growth upgrades and the ECB is probably going to cut growth. When things reopen, the world is going to realize there's a shortage of oil as well.
Bernard Lim
2021-03-09 at 12:36 (UTC 2) Link to this comment
@forexlive Post more videos on YouTube pls!!
Adam Button
2021-03-09 at 16:16 (UTC 2) Link to this comment
You got it
rob sim
2021-03-09 at 17:53 (UTC 2) Link to this comment
Thank you
America's #1 Health Coach
2021-03-09 at 22:42 (UTC 2) Link to this comment
Thank you Adam. You are so knowledgable and have taught me a lot about currency trading and fundamentals. Please post more videos. I read your blog and watch the videos.
Adam Button
2021-03-12 at 21:26 (UTC 2) Link to this comment
Thanks a bunch