Tag Archive: Turkey

FX Daily, September 14: UK Presses Ahead, China Strikes Out at German Pork Producers, and Moody’s Weighs on Turkey

A flurry of deals, including the still-evolving Oracle-TikTok tie-up, helped lift equity markets in the Asia Pacific region. South Korea's Kospi, and Indonesia, which had been battered last week, led the advance. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose for the third consecutive sessions. European bourses are little changed while US stocks are firmer.

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FX Daily, August 20: FOMC Minutes Spur Profit-Taking

Overview: The FOMC minutes depicted a Federal Reserve that appeared to be not quite ready to take fresh initiatives, whether it is yield curve control or changing the composition or quantities of its bond purchases.  This unleashed profit-taking on some of the large moves in equities, the dollar, and gold.

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FX Daily, August 19: US Equities Outperform but Does Little for the Heavy Greenback

Overview:  The S&P 500 and NASDAQ set new all-time highs yesterday, but the continued outperformance of US equities have failed to lend the dollar much support.  It was sold to new lows for the year yesterday against the euro, sterling, the Swedish krona, and the Australian dollar. 

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August Survey Data and Beyond

Economists are often lampooned because of their inability to forecast changes in the business cycle. But the pandemic helped them overcome the challenge this time. A record contraction in Q2 was anticipated before in March. Similarly, economists generally expected the recovery after the March-April body blow.

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FX Daily, August 12: Dollar was Sold in Asia and Europe, but is Poised to Bounce in North America

The biggest rise in the US 10-year yield in a couple of months, as the record quarterly refunding, got underway may have helped stabilize the dollar after an earlier decline. The S&P 500 threatened to extend its advance for the eighth consecutive session yesterday, but a late sell-off stopped it cold after scaling to new five-month highs.

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FX Daily, August 10: Monday in August

Overview: The new week has begun slowly with Singapore and Tokyo markets closed for national holidays. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 2% last week and edged higher today, led by 1.5%-1.7% rallies in South Korea and Australia.  Hong Kong was a notable exception and eased around 0.6%.

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FX Daily, August 07: Position Adjustment Dominates ahead of US/Canada Employment Reports

Escalating dramas may be behind the position adjustment today ahead of the US jobs data. The US and China feud expanded beyond Tiktok to WeChat, and efforts to tighten disclosure rules for Chinese companies listed in the US are nearing. The negotiations between the White House and the Democrats broke down, preventing or at least delaying additional stimulus. 

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FX Daily, August 5: Corrective Pressures in the FX Market Prove Short-Lived

The drop in US yields to new lows amid paralysis in Washington, except apparently over a lip-syncing app's threat to US national security, sent the dollar back to its lows after a modest recovery in early North American trading yesterday. 

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FX Daily, August 4: Markets Looking for Fresh Directional Cues

Asia Pacific equities rallied after the US shares rallied with the Nasdaq reaching record highs after it and the S&P 500 gapped higher yesterday.  Japan and Hong Kong led the rally with more than 2% gains, while the Shanghai Composite lagged with about a 0.1% gain.

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FX Daily, May 11: Quiet Start to New Week

Overview: The new week begins slowly in the capital markets. Many markets in the Asia Pacific region, including Japan, Hong Kong, and Australia, gained over 1%, but European and US shares are heavier. Benchmarks off all three regions rallied by 3.4%-3.5% over the past two weeks. Bond markets are also little changed, with the US 10-year benchmark just below 70 bp ahead of this week's record refunding.

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FX Daily, May 8: Jobs and Negative Fed Funds Futures

Overview: The S&P 500 closed near its session lows for the third day running yesterday but failed to deter the bulls in Asia-Pacific, where most markets rose by more than 1%.  Taiwan, Korea, and Australia lagged a bit though closed higher. Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is firm, and the modest gains (~0.5%) would be enough to ensure a higher weekly close if it can be maintained. 

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FX Daily, May 7: China Reports an Unexpected Jump in Exports, While Norway Surprises with a Rate Cut

Overview: There is a sense of indecision in the air today.  There have been several developments, but investors seem mostly reluctant to extend positions. China reported a surge in exports in April and an increase in the value of reserves.  Australia reported a rise in exports in March.  The Bank of England left policy steady, but clearly signaled it was prepared to boost its asset purchases. 

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FX Daily, January 03: Geopolitics Saps Risk Appetite

Iran's Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has threatened "severe retaliation" for the US attacked that killed an important head of a force within the Islamic Revolutionary Guard. At the same time, reports indicate that North Korea's Kim Jong Un is no longer pledging to halt its nuclear weapons testing and has threatened to unveil a new weapon. Meanwhile, Turkish forces have reportedly entered Libya.

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FX Daily, December 12: Enguard Lagarde

With the FOMC meeting delivered no surprises, attention turns to the ECB meeting as the UK go to the polls. Lagarde will hold her first press conference as ECB president today, and it will naturally command attention. Equities are advancing today, and tech appears to be leading the way. In Asia Pacific, Taiwan and South Korea rallied more than 1%, while the Hang Seng gapped higher to almost its best level in three weeks.

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FX Weekly Preview: An Eventful Week Ahead

The US employment report on the first Friday of December usually marks the unofficial end of the year. The desks are often lighter and dealers are loath to jeopardize the year’s bonuses in thin and often erratic markets.  This year is an exception.  Next week features the first ECB meeting with Lagarde at the helm and the final FOMC meeting of the year. 

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FX Daily, December 3: US Brandishes Tariff Weapon and Weakens Animal Spirits

Asia Pacific equities mostly declined in sympathy with yesterday's large sell-off in the US and Europe. China and Taiwan were the notable exceptions, while Australia's 2.2% decline, following the central bank meeting that resulted in what many are seeing as a hawkish hold, led the move lower. Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 fell 1.6% yesterday, the largest loss in two months, and is extending the losses for a third session today.

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FX Daily, October 15: Non-Disruptive Brexit Hopes Remain Elevated

Overview: Ideas that a Brexit deal may be close is helping to firm sterling, while soft Chinese PPI offset the spike in food prices to show the weakness of the world's second-largest economy. Minutes from the meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia earlier this month kept a door open to a rate cut before the end of the year.  Japan returned from holiday, and the Nikkei gapped higher, and its nearly 1.9% advance led the MSCI Asia Pacific Index...

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EM Preview for the Week Ahead

EM benefited greatly from the improvement in US-China trade relations and quite possibly Brexit.  The dollar is likely to remain under some pressure near-term as a result. Yet we must caution investors against getting too optimistic.  The details of the partial trade deal still need to be worked out, while existing tariffs will still remain in place if the deal is signed next month as most expect.

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