Tag Archive: Technical Analysis

The Stealth Bear Market

2025-05-26

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2025-05-26

Is this a "stealth" bear market? Of course, you may be asking yourself what I mean by that. Historically, bear markets have tended to be pretty evident, as highlighted in the chart below. These bear markets are often more protracted affairs that lead to investors developing profoundly negative sentiment towards markets. This article will use …

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The Anchoring Problem And How To Solve It

2025-05-23

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2025-05-23

Market perspective is essential in avoiding investing mistakes. With the media constantly pushing a “Markets In Turmoil” narrative, it’s no wonder that investor sentiment recently reached some of the lowest levels since the financial crisis. The following chart is the z-score of the retail and professional investor sentiment composite index of bullish sentiment. Notably, we …

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Moody’s Debt Downgrade – Does It Matter?

2025-05-19

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2025-05-19

This morning, markets are reacting to Moody's rating downgrade of U.S. debt. For those promoting egregious amounts of "bear porn," this is nirvana for fear-mongering headlines that gain clicks and views. However, as investors, we need to step back and examine the history of previous debt downgrades and their outcomes for both the stock and …

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Corporate Stock Buybacks – Do They Affect Markets?

2025-05-16

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2025-05-16

Fisher Investments recently wrote an interesting article asking whether corporate stock buybacks affect markets. Here is their conclusion: "Yes and no? Stocks move on supply and demand. Stock buybacks, where a company buys and takes shares off the market, theoretically reduce supply.

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A Bear Market Rally? Or, Just A Correction?

2025-05-12

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2025-05-12

Assessing a bear market rally proves challenging when you experience it firsthand. It is only in hindsight that the complete picture reveals itself to investors. Of course, after a bear market rally, investors tend to review their investments and speculate on what they should have done differently.

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“Resistance Is Futile” – For Both Bulls And Bears

2025-05-05

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2025-05-05

"Resistance is futile" was a sentence that struck fear in the hearts of Trekkie fans during "Star Trek: The Next Generation," specifically in both of the "Best Of Worlds" and "First Contact" episodes. In those episodes, the "Starship Enterprise" crew encountered a species called the "Borg." The Borg's primary purpose was to achieve "perfection" by assimilating other beings …

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Correction Continues – The Value Of Risk Management

2025-04-28

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2025-04-28

Despite the recent rally, the correction continues. While wanting to "buy the dip" is tempting, there has been enough technical damage to warrant remaining cautious in the near term. As we have discussed, managing risk requires discipline and the emotional ability to navigate more volatile markets until a more straightforward path for risk-taking emerges. The …

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The Death Cross And Market Bottoms

2025-04-21

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2025-04-21

In financial markets, few technical patterns generate as much attention and anxiety as the death cross. This ominous-sounding term refers to a crossover on a price chart when a short-term moving average, most commonly the 50-day moving average (50-DMA), drops below a long-term moving average, usually the 200-day moving average (200-DMA). The "death cross" is a fantastic …

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Yield Spreads Suggest The Risk Isn’t Over Yet

2025-04-14

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2025-04-14

In November last year, I discussed the importance of yield spreads, historically the market's "early warning system." To wit:" "Yield spreads are critical to understanding market sentiment and predicting potential stock market downturns. A credit spread refers to the difference in yield between two bonds of similar maturity but different credit quality. This comparison often …

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The Market Crash – Hope In The Fear

2025-04-07

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2025-04-07

Last week, we noted that "nothing good happens below the 200-DMA," and the tariff-induced market crash this past week confirmed that statement. However, we also noted that over the last 30 years, previous failures at the 200-DMA have also often been buying opportunities. That is unless some "event" of magnitude creates a massive shift in analysts' estimates. …

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Failure At The 200-DMA

2025-04-01

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2025-04-01

In last week's post, "Is the correction over?" we wrote about the potential for a rally back to the 200-DMA. However, the failure of that test increased short-term concerns. As we noted in that post, there were early indications of buyers returning to the market. To wit: "The chart below has four subpanels. The first … Continue reading...

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Retail Investor Buys The Dip Despite Bearish Sentiment

2025-03-18

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2025-03-18

It has been an interesting correction. The average retail investor was "buying the dip" despite having an extremely bearish outlook. This is an interesting point because, as shown, the retail investor used to be considered a "contrarian indicator" as they were prone to be driven by emotional behaviors that led them to "buy high and sell low." …

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CAPE-5: A Different Measure Of Valuation

2025-02-28

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2025-02-28

One of the most referenced valuation measures is Dr. Robert Shiller's Cyclically Adjusted Price-Earnings Ratio, known as CAPE. Valuations have always been, and remain, an essential variable in long-term investing returns. Or, as Warren Buffett once quipped: “Price Is What You Pay. Value Is What You Get.” One of the hallmarks of very late-stage bull …

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Estimates By Analysts Have Gone Parabolic

2025-02-25

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2025-02-25

Just recently, S&P Global released its 2026 earnings estimates, which, for lack of a better word, have gone parabolic. Such should not be surprising given the ongoing exuberance on Wall Street. As noted last week, correlations between all asset classes, whether international or emerging markets, gold or bitcoin, have all gone to one. Unsurprisingly, rationalizations …

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Retail Exuberance Sets Market Up For A Correction

2025-02-18

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2025-02-18

Last week, we discussed the surge in retail exuberance in the market following the election of President Trump. "The market defies more negative news because retail investors continue to step in and "buy the dip." In our recent Bull Bear reports, we discussed the push by retail investors, but looking at retail sentiment is quite …

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Bull Bear Report – Technical Update

2025-02-11

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2025-02-11

I could not produce our weekly Bull Bear Report this past weekend as I presented at Michael Campbell's Moneytalks Conference in Vancouver. However, I wanted to use today's technical update to review some of the statistical analysis we produce each week in that commentary. Such is mainly the case given last Monday's "tariff" shock and …

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Episode 5 of The M3 Report with Steve St. Angelo

2022-09-28

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2022-09-28

Is the energy crisis something that can be resolved? Was it always inevitable? Will renewable energy make it all OK? Are Western financial policies to blame?

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Long Term Gold Price Prediction

2022-07-22

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2022-07-22

What do the weather and the markets have in common? Quite a bit says this week’s guest! Kevin Wadsworth is a meteorologist-turned-chart analyst who has a lot of interesting insight and predictions into market movements and the price of gold. 

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How Long Will Inflation Last 2022

2022-06-18

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2022-06-18

What if we told you that you could predict the future? For today’s guest, this is certainly the case when it comes to future market events.

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Gold Price Today – Gareth Soloway

2022-03-24

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2022-03-24

Dave Russell of GoldCore TV welcomes back Gareth Soloway of InTheMoneyStocks.com where we ask if the bull market for stocks is back and if $2,500 on gold is still on the cards for 2022?

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