Tag Archive: Technical Analysis

Bear Market Losses – A Dangerous Illusion

2025-10-06

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2025-10-06

When bear market losses occur, headlines talk in percentages: “The market dropped 20 %.” Investors nod. A 20 % decline sounds manageable, historical, and expected. As Ben Carlson recently penned: "Bear markets have some symmetry to them, at least in the short-term. In the long term, bull markets versus bear markets are asymmetric. Things are not balanced. Look at …

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RSI (Relative Strength Index): Timing The Next Correction

2025-09-29

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2025-09-29

In the world of technical analysis, there is one reliable indicator for measuring market risk. The relative strength index (RSI) measures overextension (in either direction). Developed by J. Welles Wilder in 1978, the RSI is a momentum oscillator. As such, it measures the velocity and magnitude of price changes, plotting those on a scale from 0 …

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Markets: Bullish Vs Bearish Case

2025-09-22

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2025-09-22

Just recently, Scott Rubner of Citadel Securities wrote an excellent piece discussing the bull versus the bear case for the markets. You look at the markets today and see a tension between expectation and reality. On one hand, equities—especially tech and growth—are pushing to fresh highs. Optimism about rate cuts, AI and productivity gains, global …

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Why Diversification Is Failing In The Age Of Passive Investing

2025-09-08

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2025-09-08

Diversification has been the backbone of "buy and hold" strategies for the last few decades. It was a boon to financial advisors who couldn't actively manage portfolios, and it created a massive Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) industry that allowed for even further simplification of investing. The message was basic: "Buy a basket of assets, dollar cost …

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Portfolio Risk Management: Accepting The Hard Truth

2025-09-01

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2025-09-01

Alfonoso Peccatiello recently wrote an interesting piece on portfolio risk management, starting with a quote from Steve Cohen: ‘’I compile statistics on my traders. My best trader makes money only 63 percent of the time. Most traders make money only in the 50 to 55 percent range. That means you’re going to be wrong a …

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“Buy Every Dip” Remains The Winning Strategy…For Now

2025-08-25

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2025-08-25

"Buy Every Dip" has lately been the "Siren's Song" for this market. Such is seen in the flows into ETFs over the course of this year. Retail investors treat pullbacks as temporary noise, and their behavior borders on mechanical. Every sell-off is seen as an opportunity, not a warning. Meanwhile, institutional managers sit it out. …

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Excess Bullishness & 10-Rules To Navigate It

2025-08-18

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2025-08-18

There is little doubt that excess bullishness has invaded the general market psyche. Just a couple of months following the market decline in March and April, where sentiment turned exceedingly bearish, the S&P 500 hovers near its highs. Furthermore, analysts are rushing to raise price targets to 7,000 or more.

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Meme Stock Trading & Livermore’s Approach To Speculation

2025-08-11

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2025-08-11

Meme stock trading has returned in force. As discussed last week, the fear of missing out (FOMO) continues to dominate investor sentiment. The meme stock movement is again dominated by speculative retail trading driven by online forums, social media hype, and short-term momentum. Unlike GameStop and AMC in 2021, the current cycle revolves around names …

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Bull Streak Ends As August Begins

2025-08-04

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2025-08-04

As the turn of the calendar occurred on Friday, the bull streak for the market since the April lows ended. Such was not unexpected, and the correction has been a topic of discussion in our #DailyMarketCommentary over the last two weeks. To wit: "While the overall backdrop remains bullish, including stable economic growth and earnings, …

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Portfolio Benchmarking: 5-Reasons Underperformance Occurs

2025-07-28

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2025-07-28

When markets decline—especially after long periods of sustained growth—the familiar advice resurfaces: "Be patient. Stay invested. Ride it out." The rationale? The market always goes up over time. But there's a critical flaw in this narrative. Your portfolio and a portfolio benchmark are entirely different things. And portfolio benchmarking, or the constant comparison of your …

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Retail Speculation Is Back With A Vengeance

2025-07-21

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2025-07-21

Retail speculation is once again gripping the markets. A recent Wall Street Journal article highlighted how the latest retail gambling vehicle—zero-days-to-expiration (0DTE) options—has exploded in popularity. According to CBOE, trading volumes in these contracts have surged nearly sixfold over the past five years, with retail traders now accounting for more than half of all transactions. …

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Relative Returns Or Absolute. What’s More Important?

2025-07-14

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2025-07-14

A couple of years ago, I wrote about absolute versus relative returns. Given the latest market run, I am getting a lot of questions about chasing returns, and individuals comparing themselves to the S&P 500 index. Historically, trying to beat a benchmark index leads to poor outcomes. However, understanding absolute and relative returns can help …

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Q2-2025 Earnings Season Preview

2025-07-11

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2025-07-11

Next week, the Q2-2025 earnings season will begin in earnest as a barrage of S&P 500 companies report, starting with the Wall Street money center banks on Tuesday and Wednesday. Since earnings drive the market by supporting investor expectations, what […] The post Q2-2025 Earnings Season Preview appeared first on RIA.

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The Bull Market Is Alive And Well

2025-07-07

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2025-07-07

The bull market is alive and well, even amid widespread talk of the “death of U.S. exceptionalism.” Early 2025 saw a sharp shift in investor sentiment. Concerns over erratic trade policy, soaring debt, and weakening dollar pressure challenged America’s long-standing market dominance. Markets fell sharply in April and May, feeding a narrative of declining "US …

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SLR: Could It End The Bond Bear Market

2025-06-30

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2025-06-30

On June 25th, the Federal Reserve quietly announced a significant change to the Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR). While the headlines were muted, the implications for the U.S. Treasury market were anything but. For sophisticated investors, this technical shift marks a subtle but powerful pivot in monetary mechanics. It could create demand for Treasuries, improve market …

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Iran Stuck By U.S.: Markets, Risk, and Rational Investing

2025-06-23

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2025-06-23

Over the weekend, the U.S. launched strikes against Iran's nuclear facilities. Currently, I only have the details reported by major mainstream outlets. However, given that stock market futures are trading sharply lower on Sunday, I wanted to get something in print before the market opens relating to navigating this event over the next few days.

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The Iran-Israel Conflict And The Likely Impact On The Market

2025-06-16

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2025-06-16

The Iran-Israel conflict and equity markets are now in sharp focus. As direct strikes escalated in June 2025, global financial markets responded immediately. Israel’s airstrikes on Iranian nuclear and energy infrastructure triggered retaliatory missile and drone attacks from Iran. The Dow dropped nearly 2%, the S&P 500 lost over 1%, and oil prices surged by …

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“Buying The Dip” – Here’s A Technical Way To Do It

2025-06-09

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2025-06-09

Recently, I did an interview about "buying the dip" in the market, which generated many comments. Most were, "You're stupid; the market is going to crash," but one comment deserved a more thorough discussion. "When buying the dip, how do you know when to do it, or not?" That is the right question. Of course, you will never know … Continue...

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Does Consumer Spending Drive Earnings Growth?

2025-06-06

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2025-06-06

It would seem evident that most investors would understand that consumer spending drives economic growth, ultimately creating corporate earnings growth. Yet, despite this somewhat tautological statement, Wall Street appears to ignore this simple reality when forecasting forward earnings. As discussed recently, S&P Global's current estimates show earnings are growing far above the long-term exponential growth …

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Buying Stocks Is Always Hard

2025-06-02

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2025-06-02

Buying stocks is always hard. Particularly during corrections. Or, near market peaks. Or, when stocks are falling. And when they are rising. Oh, buying stocks is also tricky when valuations are high. And when they are low. You get the point. There is never the right time when it comes to buying stocks. I recently … Continue reading »

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