Tag Archive: S&P 500

Is Gold Starting to Behave Itself?

2022-05-14

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2022-05-14

Gold is doing what it is supposed to do!  Equity markets are tumbling, “NASDAQ 100 Rout Erases $1.5 Trillion in Market Value in 3 Days” reads one Bloomberg headline.

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Weekly Market Pulse: Is This A Bear Market?

2022-03-16

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2022-03-16

I don’t know the answer to the question posed in the title. No one does because the future is not predictable. I don’t know what will happen in Ukraine. I don’t know how much what has already happened there – and what might – matters to the US and global economy. I don’t know if the Fed is making a mistake by (likely) hiking interest rates by an entire 1/4 of 1% this week.

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Weekly Market Pulse: Fear Makes A Comeback

2022-01-24

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2022-01-24

Fear tends to manifest itself much more quickly than greed, so volatile markets tend to be on the downside. In up markets, volatility tends to gradually decline.

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Weekly Market Pulse: Discounting The Future

2021-12-07

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2021-12-07

The economic news recently has been better than expected and in most cases just pretty darn good. That isn’t true on a global basis as Europe continues to experience a pretty sluggish recovery from COVID. And China is busy shooting itself in the foot as Xi pursues the re-Maoing of Chinese society, damn the economic costs.

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What’s Going On, And Why Late August?

2020-10-29

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2020-10-29

ICE: US$ Index Futures, DX1
This isn’t about COVID. It’s been building since the end of August, a shift in mood, perception, and reality that began turning things several months before even then. With markets fickle yet again, a lot today, what’s going on here?

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Why The FOMC Just Embraced The Stock Bubble (and anything else remotely sounding inflationary)

2020-06-14

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2020-06-14

Mainstream Models World Bank
The job, as Jay Powell currently sees it, means building up the S&P 500 as sky high as it can go. The FOMC used to pay lip service to valuations, but now everything is different. He’ll signal to all those fund managers by QE raising bank reserves, leading them on in what they all want to believe is “money printing” (that isn’t).

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A Day For Rate Cuts

2020-03-04

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2020-03-04

Total Credit Market, 1980-2015
Well, that wasn’t he had in mind. The whole point of a rate cut, any rate cut let alone an emergency fifty, is to signal especially the stock market that the Fed is in the business of…something. The public has been led, by and large, to assume that something good happens when the Fed Chair shows up on TV.

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The Transitory Story, I Repeat, The Transitory Story

2019-05-24

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2019-05-24

Money Markets Equivalents, 2017-2019
Understand what the word “transitory” truly means in this context. It is no different than Ben Bernanke saying, essentially, subprime is contained. To the Fed Chairman in early 2007, this one little corner of the mortgage market in an otherwise booming economy was a transitory blip that booming economy would easily withstand. Just eight days before Bernanke would testify confidently before Congress, the FOMC had met to discuss their lying eyes....

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A Few Questions From Today’s BOND ROUT!!!!

2018-10-05

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2018-10-05

Benchmark 10-year UST 2017-2018
On April 2, the benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield traded below 2.75%. It had been as high as 2.94% in later February at the tail end of last year’s inflation hysteria. But after the shock of global liquidations in late January and early February, liquidity concerns would override again at least for a short while. After April 2, the BOND ROUT!!!! was re-energized and away went interest rates.

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Global Asset Allocation Update

2018-08-02

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2018-08-02

Moderate Allocation 50-50 risk budget
The risk budget is unchanged again this month. For the moderate risk investor, the allocation between bonds and risk assets is evenly split. The only change to the portfolio is the one I wrote about last week, an exchange of TIP for SHY.

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Mid-Year Global Markets Update

2018-07-19

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2018-07-19

S&P 500
Volatility returned to markets with a vengeance in the first half of this year. 2018 started off as an extension of last year when volatility was almost wholly absent. Stocks roared out of the starting gate, up almost every day until January 26th. And then – whoosh. What took nearly a month to gain took just 6 trading days to give back and then some.

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Buybacks Get All The Macro Hate, But What About Dividends?

2018-07-13

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2018-07-13

S&P500 Stock Repurchases 2000-2018
When it comes to the stock market and the corporate cash flow condition, our attention is usually drawn to stock repurchases. With good reason. These controversial uses of scarce internal funds are traditionally argued along the lines of management teams identifying and correcting undervalued shares. History shows, conclusively, that hasn’t really been true.

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US Vs China – Is It ‘Art Of The Deal’ Or Economic Warfare?

2018-07-04

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2018-07-04

While monetary tightening remains the main risk for global stock markets, the threat of a trade war continues to dominate the headlines...

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Global Asset Allocation Update

2018-06-21

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2018-06-21

Global Asset Allocation Update
The risk budget is unchanged this month. For the moderate risk investor the allocation to bonds and risk assets is evenly split. There are changes this month within the asset classes. How far are we from the end of this cycle? When will the next recession arrive and more importantly when will stocks and other markets start to anticipate a slowdown?

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Here We Go Again: Our Double-Bubble Economy

2018-06-17

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2018-06-17

S&P/Case-Shiller 2000-2018
The bubbles in assets are supported by the invisible bubble in greed, euphoria and credulity. Well, folks, here we go again: we have a double-bubble economy in housing and stocks, and a third difficult-to-chart bubble in greed, euphoria and credulity.

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Gold Out Performs Stocks In 2018 and This Century By Ratio Of Two To One

2018-04-14

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2018-04-14

Gold Price, 1999 - 2018
– Gold outperforming stocks in 2018 and this century (see chart) – Gold up close to 2% in 2018 while S&P 500 is down 2% – Trump trade wars and Kudlow as Trump chief economic advisor is gold bullish – Given gold’s performance, Kudlow’s dismissal of gold as “end of the world insurance” is “irrational” – Market volatility could drive gold to $1,500/oz in 2018 – Holmes

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Never Mind Volatility: Systemic Risk Is Rising

2018-03-07

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2018-03-07

S&P 500, 2008 - 2018
So who's holding the hot potato of systemic risk now? Everyone. One of the greatest con jobs of the past 9 years is the status quo's equivalence of risk and volatility: risk = volatility: so if volatility is low, then risk is low. Wrong: volatility once reflected specific short-term aspects of risk, but measures of volatility such as the VIX have been hijacked to generate the illusion that risk is low.

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Gold Hits All-Time Highs Priced In Emerging Market Currencies

2018-01-13

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2018-01-13

Gold Prices in Emerging Markets Currencies, 2010 - 2018
Gold Hits All-Time Highs Priced In Emerging Market Currencies. Gold at all time in eight major emerging market currencies. A stronger performance than seen when priced in USD, EUR or GBP. As world steps away from US dollar hegemony expect new gold highs in $, € and £. Gold is a hedge against currency debasement and depreciation of fiat currencies.

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Global Asset Allocation Update

2018-01-05

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2018-01-05

Moderate Allocation
There is no change to the risk budget this month. For the moderate risk investor the allocation to bonds is 50%, risk assets 45% and cash 5%. The extreme overbought condition of the US stock market persists so I will continue to hold a modest amount of cash. There are some minor changes within the portfolios but the overall allocation is unchanged.

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Silver’s Positive Fundamentals Due To Strong Demand In Key Growth Industries

2017-12-08

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2017-12-08

Silver Price in USD, Jan 2013 - 2017
Silver’s Positive Fundamentals Due To Strong Demand In Key Growth Industries. Increased efforts in green energy and advanced technology set to boosts silver’s demand. Four-year supply deficit set to increase due to fewer mine openings and discoveries. Bank manipulation may be why silver under performing. TD Securities and the Bank of Montreal expect silver to be best performing precious metal in 2018.

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