Tag Archive: Seeking Alpha

How Currency Speculators Help the SNB to Fight against Ordinary Investors

2012-12-05

A discussion in the investor forum made clear how currency speculators currently help the SNB to maintain the floor against normal investors. A situation that was different in August/September 2011, when the SNB had to fight against these speculators. A discussion in the investor forum Seeking Alpha: part one Based on our analysis of …

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Standard and Poor’s critique of the Swiss National Bank, part 1

2012-09-26

by George Dorgan

2012-09-26

Part 1: Swiss investments abroad [This paper includes some of the S&P critique, but also aims to clarify some of S&P’s misleading points] Last Thursday Thomas Moser, a member of the Swiss National Bank (SNB) governing council, said that one of the main reasons for the strong franc is the conversion of Swiss foreign incomes …

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Can The SNB Make Profit On Currency Reserves ?

2012-09-19

by George Dorgan

2012-09-19

Abstract We determine the main criteria with which markets evaluate currency prices. We focus on explaining the differences between the carry trade era (or like Ben Barnanke called it “The Great Moderation”) and the period after the financial crisis. Our research shows that each one of the following three main preconditions must be fulfilled, …

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Why the euro has recovered? or are Markit PMI really reliable?

2012-08-23

by George Dorgan

2012-08-23

Here a follow-up of our contribution on Seeking Alpha written on August 15th, with the title “Are Markit PMIs really reliable?“. We recommended to go long the euro and the Swiss franc against the US dollar and sterling, because the Markit PMIs were not in line with trade balance data. Previously we suggested in … Continue...

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Global PMIs Contracting More – Are Stocks Overvalued?

2012-08-07

by George Dorgan

2012-08-07

updated August 05,2012 We publish a detailed analysis of global PMIs and compare them with the main risk indicators S&P500, Copper, Brent and AUD/USD some days after most PMIs came out. Abstract: Thanks to positive US consumer confidence, stock markets are highly valued, whereas the Purchasing Manager Indices (PMIs) for the manufacturing industry are contracting …

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The win of the pro-bailout parties in the Greek elections was no win for the SNB

2012-06-25

by George Dorgan

2012-06-25

The win for the pro-bailout parties in the Greek elections was no win for the Swiss National Bank (SNB), even if the fear of an immediate bank-run and extreme money flows into Switzerland are avoided. Also the fact that QE3 is not coming in the next weeks did not help the SNB.

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