Tag Archive: Politics

Swiss tax spy ‘acted out of patriotism’

2017-10-29

by

2017-10-29

A Swiss man accused of spying on the German state of North Rhine-Westphalia’s (NRW) tax authority has confessed and named names. In a Frankfurt court on Thursday, the 54-year-old man, identified only as Daniel M., explained via his defence team that he had not acted with criminal intent. Rather his motivation was “patriotism, a desire for adventure, a pursuit of profit, and outrage”.

Read More »

Political Economics

2017-10-28

by

2017-10-28

US Real Gross Domestic Product, Jan 1993 - 2017
Who President Trump ultimately picks as the next Federal Reserve Chairman doesn’t really matter. Unless he goes really far afield to someone totally unexpected, whoever that person will be will be largely more of the same. It won’t be a categorical change, a different philosophical direction that is badly needed. Still, politically, it does matter to some significant degree. It’s just that the political division isn’t the usual R vs. D, left vs....

Read More »

Bi-Weekly Economic Review: Yawn

2017-10-24

by

2017-10-24

When I wrote the update two weeks ago I said that we might be nearing the point of maximum optimism. Apparently, there is another gear for optimism in this market as stocks have just continued to slowly but surely reach for the sky.

Read More »

Suspected Swiss tax spy trial underway in Germany

2017-10-19

by

2017-10-19

The trial in Frankfurt of a Swiss private investigator accused of spying on the tax authorities in the German state of North Rhine-Westphalia is underway, but already temporarily suspended. The 54-year-old allegedly acted on behalf of the Swiss intelligence service trying to uncover a series of thefts of CDs with data on suspected tax dodgers who held money in Swiss banks, according to German prosecutors.

Read More »

NAFTA Worries Take Toll, Yellen’s Best Guess Supports Greenback

2017-10-17

by

2017-10-17

Risk that NAFTA collapses weighs on CAD and MXN. Yen is slightly firmer despite US yields edging higher and weekend polls suggesting LDP could nearly secure a 2/3 majority of its own. The sterling is consolidating after sharp moves at the end of last week.

Read More »

Political Focus Shifting in Europe

2017-10-15

by

2017-10-15

There was a huge sigh of relief among investors when it became clear that the populist-nationalist wave that ostensibly led to Brexit and Trump's election was not going to sweep through Europe. The euro gapped higher on April 24, and it has not looked back. We have suggested that with the outcome of the German election, European politics shift from tailwind to headwind.

Read More »

FX Weekly Preview: Forces of Movement

2017-10-09

by

2017-10-09

Over the past few weeks, the markets have come to accept the likelihood of a December Fed hike. US interest rates have adjusted. The pricing of December Fed funds futures contract is consistent with around an 80% chance of a hike. The two-year yield is trading at the upper end of what is expected to be the Fed funds target range at the end of the year, after slipping below the current range a month ago. The Dollar Index formed a bottoming pattern.

Read More »

Bi-Weekly Economic Review: As Good As It Gets

2017-09-26

by

2017-09-26

The incoming economic data hasn’t changed its tone all that much in the last several years. The US economy is growing but more slowly than it once did and we hope it does again. It is frustrating for economic bulls and bears, never fully satisfying either. Probably more important is the frustration of the average American, a dissatisfaction with the status quo that permeates the national debate. The housing bubble papered over the annoying lack of...

Read More »

Swiss expats buck the pension reform trend

2017-09-25

by

2017-09-25

Unlike their compatriots in Switzerland, Swiss voters who live abroad came out massively in favour of a wide-ranging overhaul of Switzerland’s old-age pension scheme.  Eleven of Switzerland’s 26 cantons count the votes of Swiss expats separately. An analysis of Sunday’s results shows that in nine of these cantons more than 70% of Swiss abroad backed the “Old Age Security 2020” package, which aimed to guarantee the future financing of...

Read More »

FX Weekly Preview: Forces of Movement in FX: The Week Ahead

2017-09-11

by

2017-09-11

The dollar has been declining since the start of the year, but the causes have changed. The drag from US politics may be exaggerated, while European and Japanese politics are worrisome. The economic data may continue to be a drag on US yields, especially if core CPI slips again.

Read More »

Bi-Weekly Economic Review: Don’t Underestimate Gridlock

2017-08-30

by

2017-08-30

Bi-weekly
The economic reports released since the last update were slightly more upbeat than the previous period. The economic surprises have largely been on the positive side but there were some major disappointments as well. The economy has been doing this for several years now, one part of the economy waxing while another wanes and the overall trajectory not much changed. Indeed, the broad Chicago Fed National Activity index probably says it all, coming...

Read More »

FX Weekly Preview: Three Drivers in the Week Ahead

2017-08-28

by

2017-08-28

EMU preliminary August CPI headline rise may not translate into core. US jobs growth is fine; earnings growth is key. Trump's coalition is fraying, and the weekend pardon will not help mend fences.

Read More »

Questions

2017-08-24

by

2017-08-24

US Corporate Profits / Gross Domestic Product, 1950 - 2017
Why are profit margins persistently high? With decent earnings this quarter, corporate profits as a % of GDP will approach (maybe exceed) 10% again. That is abnormally high compared to the period 1960 to 2000. Margins actually started to rise in the mid-80s but really accelerated after 2000 and outside of the 2008 crisis have remained high. Why?

Read More »

Swiss companies pull out of Venezuela

2017-08-19

by

2017-08-19

Swiss firms have been cutting hundreds of jobs in long-established branch offices in Venezuela, as the oil-producing country experiences an economic and political crisis. “The disaster – economic, social, political and humanitarian – which is engulfing Venezuela with the government of [president] Nicolas Maduro is forcing Swiss companies to resize their presence or to gradually leave the country,” wrote French-language newspaper Le Temps, which...

Read More »

Government compromises on medical tariffs

2017-08-18

by

2017-08-18

The Swiss cabinet has approved an amended billing system for medical treatments aimed at creating more transparency and limiting a further increase in healthcare costs.The decision is expected to lead to annual savings of CHF470 million ($483 million) and a drop of about 1.5 percentage points in insurance fees for patients, according to Interior Minister Alain Berset.

Read More »

“Under Any Analysis, It’s Insanity”: What War With North Korea Could Look Like

2017-08-14

by

2017-08-14

Kim Jong-Un and Donald Trump
Now that the possibility of a war between the US and North Korea seems just one harshly worded tweet away, and the window of opportunity for a diplomatic solution, as well as for the US stopping Kim Jong-Un from obtaining a nuclear-armed ICBM closing fast, analysts have started to analyze President Trump’s military options, what a war between the US and North Korea would look like, and what the global economic consequences would be.

Read More »

UN group demands reversal of Swiss minaret ban

2017-07-30

by

2017-07-30

Switzerland should take steps to ensure that people's initiatives do not contravene international law, the United Nations Human Rights Committee says. It notably called for the repeal of a Swiss vote banning the construction of minarets.

Read More »

Italy demands data on billions in suspect Swiss accounts

2017-07-24

by

2017-07-24

Italian financial crime investigators have asked the Swiss authorities for help in tracking down the beneficial owners of €6.7 billion (CHF7.4 billion) held in Switzerland. The information came to light during an investigation by the Milan authorities into the activities of Credit Suisse.

Read More »

Swiss-US meeting focuses on vocational education and jobs

2017-07-22

by

2017-07-22

Schneider-Ammann
Swiss Economics Minister Johann Schneider-Ammann on Tuesday expressed satisfaction with his two days of meetings with senior Trump administration officials, capping efforts to boost cooperation between Switzerland and the United States on education, jobs and trade. He also invited Ivanka Trump, the daughter and adviser to US President Donald Trump, and other Trump administration officials to visit Switzerland so that they can "explore ways of...

Read More »

Switzerland Hosts Meeting on Tax Transparency

2017-07-20

by

2017-07-20

Alexander Karrer
An international meeting on transparency and exchange of tax data is underway in the Swiss city of Geneva. The five-day gathering of the Global Forum peer review group is to examine the implementation of so-called group requests and the issue of the identification of beneficial owners, according to the State Secretariat for International Financial Matters.

Read More »