Tag Archive: policy mix

Semblance of Calm Returns

2022-09-27

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2022-09-27

(Business travel will prevent me from updating the blog for the next couple of days.  Thank you for your patience.  Good luck.)Overview: After extending last week’s moves yesterday, the capital markets are mostly calmer today. Sterling is firmer, as are UK Gilts.

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The Dollar and the Fed

2021-05-08

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2021-05-08

One of the stark developments since the initial shock of the pandemic has been the aggressiveness of the US monetary and fiscal response. This was also true in dealing with the Great Financial Crisis. The divergence then and now had shaped the investment climate.

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The Dollar’s Evolving Outlook

2020-12-23

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2020-12-23

The foreign exchange market sees an average daily turnover of something on the magnitude of $6.6 trillion a day.  In a week, the turnover is sufficient to more than cover world trade for a year.  It is the largest of the capital markets.  Trends in the currency market can last for years.  

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October Monthly

2020-10-03

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2020-10-03

After falling in July and August, the US dollar strengthened against most of the major currencies in September.  The dramatic pullback in equities seemed to have undergirded the yen's resilience, which gained a net 0.25% against the dollar.

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Cool Video: Sketch of Bullish Case for Gold

2019-06-26

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2019-06-26

I know some people who are always bullish gold. I am not. In fact, I often think I can find higher returning assets. However, I have recently have turned bullish gold, and while in Toronto on business, I was invited to the set of Bloomberg to discuss my change of heart.

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Canada: Monetary and Fiscal Updates This Week

2017-10-24

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2017-10-24

Divergence between US and Canada's two-year rates is key for USD-CAD exchange rate. Canada's 2 hikes in Q3 were not part of a sustained tightening sequence. Policy mix considerations also favor the greenback if US policy becomes more stimulative.

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BIS: A Paradigm Shift on Bond Yields?

2016-12-18

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2016-12-18

Review of recent BIS report. US election spurred a substantial change in sentiment. Equity and bond market reactions are roughly similar to when Reagan was elected, with the dollar, at least initially, stronger than then.

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Great Graphic: Growth in Federal Spending

2016-11-13

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2016-11-13

Federal spending growth under Obama is lower than under the previous four presidents. Subsequent to the chart, US federal spending has increased. It will likely increase more under the next President.

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