Tag Archive: newsletter

Great Graphic: Crude Approaches Year-Old Trend Line

2018-08-17

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2018-08-17

Crude oil has been climbing a trendline for the past year. This Great Graphic depicts this trend on a weekly bar chart. Depending exactly the line is drawn, it comes in now near $65 a barrel. The technical indicators are consistent with further losses.

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Monthly Macro Monitor – August 2018

2018-08-17

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2018-08-17

US Real GDP, Q1 2013 - Q1 2018
The Q2 GDP report (+4.1% from the previous quarter, annualized) was heralded by the administration as a great achievement and certainly putting a 4 handle on quarter to quarter growth has been rare this cycle, if not unheard of (Q4 ’09, Q4 ’11, Q2 & Q3 ’14). But looking at the GDP change year over year shows a little different picture (2.8%).

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Who Would Invest in a Gold Bond?

2018-08-17

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2018-08-17

Berkshire Hathaway CEO Warren Buffet famously dismissed gold. “Gold has two significant shortcomings, being neither of much use nor procreative.” I have recently written about how a government with gold mining tax revenues can use gold. The benefits of issuing gold bonds include reducing risk, and getting out of debt at a discount. Pretty useful, eh?

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FX Daily, August 16: Emerging Markets Stabilize, Dollar Eases a Little

2018-08-16

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2018-08-16

Two developments have helped turned sentiment, or at least arrested the markets' momentum. First, the developments in Turkey, where officials have taken a few measures that will make it somewhat more difficult to access the lira.

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Swiss Labour Force Survey in 2nd quarter 2018: Number of persons in employment rises by 0.7 percent, unemployment rate based on ILO at 4.6 percent

2018-08-16

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2018-08-16

Unemployed According to ILO
The number of employed persons in Switzerland rose by 0.7% in the 2nd quarter 2018 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. The unemployment rate as defined by the International Labour Organisation (ILO) rose during the same period by 0.2 percentage points to 4.6%. The EU's unemployment rate based on the ILO definition decreased from 7.6% to 6.9%.

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Zurich bank settles tax evasion probe with US

2018-08-16

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2018-08-16

The Zürcher Kantonalbank (ZKB) has agreed to pay the United States Department of Justice (DOJ) $98.5 million (CHF97.7 million) to resolve a long-running investigation into its role in tax evasion by wealthy Americans using undeclared Swiss bank accounts.

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Great Graphic JPY Struggles at Trendline

2018-08-16

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2018-08-16

This Great Graphic is a weekly bar chart of the dollar-yen exchange rate.  It shows a three-year downtrend line (white line).  The US dollar had popped above it last month, but this proved premature and has not closed about it for a month.  The trendline is found near JPY111.55 now.

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Wall Street – Island of the Blessed

2018-08-16

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2018-08-16

Which Disturbance in the Farce can be Profitably Ignored Today? There has been some talk about submerging market turmoil recently and the term “contagion” has seen an unexpected revival in popularity – on Friday that is, which is an eternity ago. As we have pointed out previously, the action is no longer in line with the “synchronized global expansion” narrative, which means with respect to Wall Street that it is best ignored.

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Swiss National Bank releases new 200-franc note

2018-08-15

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2018-08-15

Fourth banknote in latest series showcases Switzerland’s scientific expertise. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) will begin issuing the new 200-franc note on 22 August 2018. Following the 50, 20 and 10-franc notes, this is the fourth of six denominations in the new banknote series to be released. The current eighth-series banknotes will remain legal tender until further notice.

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FX Daily, August 15: Lira Rallies on Cut in Swaps, but Fails to Dent Dollar Demand

2018-08-15

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2018-08-15

The Turkish lira is extending yesterday's recovery today on the back of actions by officials that are aimed at limiting foreign access to the lira to short. Without introducing new capital controls, regulators halved the amount of swap transactions banks can do to 25% of shareholder equity. This is meant to make it more difficult to access lira in the offshore swaps market, which is an important channel.

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Swiss public transport given good cost-effectiveness marks

2018-08-15

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2018-08-15

Using public transport infrequently in Switzerland is expensive, but thanks to new special offers such as “early bird” rates Switzerland does well when it comes to value for money, according to an international study. “Travelling by train, bus or boat is expensive in Switzerland,” is a common refrain among Swiss people – and especially tourists.

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Our “Prosperity” Is Now Dependent on Predatory Globalization

2018-08-15

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2018-08-15

Labor Compensaton's share of GDP, 1980-2018
Nowadays, trade and "prosperity" are dependent on currencies that are created out of thin air via borrowing or printing. So here's the story explaining why "free" trade and globalization create so much wonderful prosperity for all of us: I find a nation with cheap labor and no environmental laws anxious to give me cheap land and tax credits, so I move my factory from my high-cost, highly regulated nation to the low-cost nation, and keep all the...

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Cool Video: CNBC Discussion on Turkey

2018-08-15

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2018-08-15

I had the opportunity to join Professor Hanke to discuss the crisis in Turkey. The professor sketched out his view expressed in a recent op-ed piece in the Wall Street Journal, arguing that Turkey is best served by adopting a currency board, anchoring the lira to hard currency, like the euro or dollar, or gold. 

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Immobilie finanzieren – Die richtige Tigung aus Sicht eines Bankers | Interview mit Kai Niklas

2018-08-14

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Immobilie finanzieren - Dein kostenloses Immopreneur Starterpaket für Immobilieninvesotren: http://bit.ly/immobilienstarter Welche Art der Tilgung ist die richtige für meine Investition? Dies ist eine Frage, mit der wir uns als Immobilieninvestoren früher oder später befassen müssen. In der heutigen Folge interviewe ich Kai Niklas, der uns erklärt, welche Art der Tilgung, aus Sicht eines Bankers, die beste ist. Wir freuen uns auf dein Feedback!...

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FX Daily, August 14: Brief Respite but Little Relief

2018-08-14

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2018-08-14

Corrective pressures grip the capital markets today, helped by the easing of the selling pressure on Turkey, but its more a respite than a relief as no new policy initiatives are behind the lira's upticks. The implication of this is that it is unlikely to last. In fact, the dollar's low in early Europe a just above TRY6.41 after trading a little above TRY7.23 yesterday may be about the most that can reasonably be expected.

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Swiss Producer and Import Price Index in July 2018: +3.6 YoY, +0.1 MoM

2018-08-14

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2018-08-14

Switzerland Producer Price Index (PPI) YoY, July 2018
The Producer and Import Price Index increased in July 2018 by 0.1% compared with the previous month, reaching 103.3 points (December 2015 = 100). The rise is due in particular to higher prices for watches, petroleum and natural gas. Compared with July 2017, the price level of the whole range of domestic and imported products rose by 3.6%.

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Fat Cattle Force Farmers to Call for ‘New Model Cow’

2018-08-14

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2018-08-14

Many Swiss cows are getting too heavy for soft Alpine pastures, too wide for their stalls and too gluttonous for their owners. An interest group is now calling for cows to be bred that are smaller, lighter and more easily sated.

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Great Graphic: Possible Head and Shoulders Top in Euro

2018-08-14

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2018-08-14

Euro BGN Currency
The euro appears to have carved out head and shoulder top. As this Great Graphic depicts, the euro was sold through the neckline at the end of last week and is 1% below it today. It is not unusual for the neckline to be retested. It is found near $1.15. It also dovetails with our near-term caution given that the euro is likely to close below its Bollinger Band for the second consecutive session (~$1.1440).

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Capital Controls Next? Lira Rebounds After Turkey Bank Regulator Limits FX Swap Operations

2018-08-14

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2018-08-14

USD/TRY daily
In the first tentative step toward the final option available for Erdogan to halt the Lira's accelerating collapse - which crashed as low as 7.2362 earlier after the Wellington FX open following the the Turkish president's latest belligerent comments - namely capital controls, the Turkish Banking Regulation and Supervision Agency imposed a limit on the amount of foreign currency and lira swap and swap-like transactions, which are not to exceed 50%...

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Gold Sector – An Obscure Indicator Provides a Signal

2018-08-14

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2018-08-14

The Goldminbi. In recent weeks gold apparently decided it would be a good time to masquerade as an emerging market currency and it started mirroring the Chinese yuan of all things. Since the latter is non-convertible this almost feels like an insult of sorts. As an aside to this, bitcoin seems to be frantically searching for a new position somewhere between the South African rand the Turkish lira.

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