Tag Archive: newsletter

Are the Rise of Social Media and the Decline of Social Mobility Related?

2019-04-05

by

2019-04-05

Time Spent with Digital Media, 2008-2015
Social media offers hope of achieving higher online social status without having to succeed financially in a winner-take-most economy. I've often addressed the decline of social mobility and the addictive nature of social media, and recently I've entertained the crazy notion that the two dynamics are related. Why Is Social Media So Toxic?

Read More »

Swiss likely to vote on capital tax reform plan

2019-04-05

by

2019-04-05

The leftwing Young Socialist group has handed in the necessary signatures to force a nationwide vote on its proposal to increase tax on capital revenue in Switzerland. The initiative intends to tax dividends and interest on wealth by a factor of 1.5 compared with regular income tax.

Read More »

Oil prices supported by OPEC+ cuts…before market risks being flooded again

2019-04-05

by

2019-04-05

World Oil Demand, 2019-2024
Increased US export capacity would probably force OPEC+ to change its current tactics.After last year’s collapse, oil prices have found support since the beginning of this year for several reasons. At this stage, the main question is whether the recent surge in prices is sustainable or whether we will see renewed oil price volatility, with the possibility of a repeat of 2018.

Read More »

FX Daily, April 04: Limited Price Action Does not Do Justice to Macro Developments

2019-04-04

by

2019-04-04

Overview: The global capital markets are subdued despite several macro developments.  The US and China may announce as early as today when the two presidents will meet to ostensibly sign a trade deal, while House of Commons effort to block a no-deal exit goes to the House of Lords today.  India cut interest rates by 25 bp, the second consecutive cut. 

Read More »

Q&A on European Parliament elections

2019-04-04

by

2019-04-04

European Institutions
European Parliament elections, to be held between 23 and 26 of May, will be a key political event in Europe. However, we expect limited short-term impact, given the European Parliament's limited ability to set Brussels' agenda.European Parliament (EP) elections will be a key political event in Europe, a form of ‘midterm election’ in which the electorates can state their approval or disapproval of their respective national governments. 

Read More »

Typisch Mensch: Man überschätzt sich

2019-04-04

by

Wenn allzu menschliche Eigenschaften das Verhalten an den Finanzmärkten prägen: Der Overconfidence Bias

Read More »

IMF predicts Swiss growth to slow to 1.1percent in 2019

2019-04-04

by

2019-04-04

The Swiss economy is likely to slow in 2019, with gross domestic product growth expected to hit 1.1%, followed by a “moderate” recovery in 2020, the International Monetary Fund said on Monday. The IMF said in a concluding statement, published on Monday following a mission to Switzerland and an annual evaluation, that a “sustained regional slowdown, intensification of global trade tensions and a disruptive Brexit” would adversely affect the Swiss...

Read More »

Retail Sales In Bad Company, Decouple from Decoupling

2019-04-04

by

2019-04-04

Retail Sales, NSA 2011-2018
In a way, the government shutdown couldn’t have come at a more opportune moment. As workers all throughout the sprawling bureaucracy were furloughed, markets had run into chaos. Even the seemingly invincible stock market was pummeled, a technical bear market emerged on Wall Street as people began to really consider increasingly loud economic risks.

Read More »

Phugoid Dollar Funding

2019-04-04

by

2019-04-04

Money Markets Equivalents 2014-2019
On August 12, 1985, Japan Airways flight 123 left Tokyo’s Haneda Airport on its way to a scheduled arrival in Osaka. Twelve minutes into the flight, the aircraft, a Boeing 747, suffered catastrophic failure when an aft pressure bulkhead burst.

Read More »

FX Daily, April 03: Optimism Sweeps Through the Capital Markets

2019-04-03

by

2019-04-03

Overview: Japan announced the name of the new era that begins May 1 and a new emperor.  The connotation is of beautiful harmony.  And investors have taken the bit and run with it.  Optimism that the US and China near reaching an agreement on trade. China and Europe have reported better than expected PMIs today. 

Read More »

Stadler lands $600 million order in the US

2019-04-03

by

2019-04-03

Swiss railway vehicle manufacturer Stadler Rail has won a $600 million (CHF597 million) order in the United States. The Metropolitan Atlanta Rapid Transit Authority (MARTAexternal link) on Friday announced its decision to award Stadlerexternal link the contract for 127 Metro (underground) trains with two options of 25 additional trains each.

Read More »

Cool Video: Fed’s Independence Challenged and Defended

2019-04-03

by

2019-04-03

Marc Chandler talking with Charles Payne and Quincy Krosby about Fed policy
I was on the set Fox Business set this afternoon talking with Charles Payne and Quincy Krosby about Fed policy. Payne suggested that both the political left and right are trying to politicize the Federal Reserve to print money for their favorite programs.

Read More »

The Hidden Cost of Losing Local Mom and Pop Businesses

2019-04-03

by

2019-04-03

American Dynamism in Retreat 1979-2014
What cannot be replaced by corporate chains is neighborhood character and variety. There is much more to this article than first meets the eye: In a Tokyo neighborhood's last sushi restaurant, a sense of loss "Eiraku is the last surviving sushi bar in this cluttered neighborhood of steep cobblestoned hills and cherry trees unseen on most tourist maps of Tokyo.

Read More »

Will Basel III Send Gold to the Moon, Report 2 Apr

2019-04-02

by

2019-04-02

Gold and Silver Price
A number of commentators have predicted that the rules of the Basel III bank regulations will cause gold to skyrocket (no, this article is not about our view that gold does not go up, that it’s the dollar going down, that the lighthouse does not go up, it’s the sinking ship going down in the storm).

Read More »

FX Daily, April 02: Herding Cats

2019-04-02

by

2019-04-02

After surging yesterday, equities are struggling to maintain the momentum that carried that S&P 500 to its best level since last October. Most Asia Pacific equity markets advanced. Japan's small losses were a notable exception. The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 has advanced in four of the last five sessions and is little changed, while US shares are trading with a heavier bias.

Read More »

GBP to CHF weakness after no majority for alternative Brexit

2019-04-02

by

2019-04-02

The pound to Swiss franc exchange rate still struggles to push higher amidst global uncertainty and the pressing issue of Brexit. The Swiss franc maintains the higher ground with its safe haven status amidst concerns of a global slowdown, the effects of which are already being seen across China and the EU.

Read More »

Swiss Consumer Price Index in March 2019: +0.7 percent YoY, +0.5 percent MoM

2019-04-02

by

2019-04-02

Switzerland Consumer Price Index (CPI) YoY, March 2019
The consumer price index (CPI) increased by 0.5% in March 2019 compared with the previous month, reaching 102.2 points (December 2015 = 100). Inflation was 0.7% compared with the same month of the previous year. These are the results of the Federal Statistical Office (FSO).

Read More »

April Monthly Currency Outlook

2019-04-02

by

2019-04-02

Poor economic data and soft inflation saw several central banks, including the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank, take a dovish turn in March. Contrary to expectations that interest rates would rise as the G3 central banks were no longer adding to their balance sheets on a combined basis.

Read More »

Million franc salaries cause friction in Bern

2019-04-02

by

2019-04-02

Switzerland’s government recently voted for a ceiling on the salaries of those managing public companies such as Swisscom, Swiss Post, Skyguide and Swiss Rail. In response, the board of Swiss Rail wrote to the Federal Council requesting it to soften its position. From 2020, the company wants to pay its nine senior managers CHF 5.89 million, including a salary of more than CHF 1 million to Andreas Meyer, the boss of the company.

Read More »

FX Daily, April 01: China Reanimates the Animal Spirits, While Europe Finds New Ways to Disappoint

2019-04-01

by

2019-04-01

Overview:  Better than expected German retail sales ad employments reports at the end of last week has been followed by gains in China's official PMI  and Caixin's manufacturing reading. However, the spillover from China was limited in Asia.  Japan's Tankan survey and outlook disappointed and South Korea's exports and imports were weaker than expected. 

Read More »