Tag Archive: newsletter

For Labor And Recession, The Bad One

2019-11-12

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2019-11-12

Nonfarm Business Sector: Unit Labor Costs 1983-2019
There’s a couple of different ways that Unit Labor Costs can rise. Or even surge. The first is the good way, the one we all want to see because it is consistent with the idea of an economy that is actually booming. If workers have become truly scarce as macro forces sustain actual growth such that all labor market slack is absorbed, then businesses have to compete for them bidding up the price of marginal labor.

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The Real Boom Potential

2019-11-12

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2019-11-12

China Exports, 1998-2019
For the last five years Larry Summers has called it secular stagnation. It’s the right general idea as far as the result, if totally wrong as to its cause. Alvin Hansen, who first coined the term and thought up the thesis in the thirties, was thoroughly disproved by the fifties. Some, perhaps many Economists today believe it was WWII which actually did the disproving.

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What’s the Price of Gold in the Gold Standard, Report 10 Nov

2019-11-12

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2019-11-12

Gold Price
Let’s revisit a point that came up in passing, in the Silver Doctors’ interview of Keith. At around 35:45, he begins a question about weights and measures, and references the Coinage Act of 1792. This raises an interesting set of issues, and we have encountered much confusion (including from one PhD economist whose dissertation committee was headed by Milton Friedman himself).

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The Feds Spend More on National-Debt Interest Than You Think

2019-11-12

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2019-11-12

Debt Held
Recently, the Treasury Department reported a 26% increase in the federal budget deficit with a 2019 deficit of $984 billion. The reported data on the budget can be misleading. You might think that a budget deficit is the amount of spending that exceeds budget revenue, in other words, the amount of borrowing needed to make up for this shortfall. However, in the world of Washington D.C., not all spending is counted as spending and it’s possible for...

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Billionaire Boom “Has Now Undergone A Natural Correction”

2019-11-11

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2019-11-11

Fifteen Years of asset growth, 2003-2018
Over the last five years ending in 2018, the billionaire boom created more billionaires than the world has ever seen. These financial elites saw their wealth increase by more than a third over the same period, but as soon as 2018 rolled around, the billionaire boom deflated, according to a new UBS/PwC Billionaires Report.

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French-speaking cantons biggest winners from next year’s fiscal transfers

2019-11-11

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2019-11-11

The amount of money paid by “rich” cantons to “poor” ones will rise by CHF 61 million to CHF 5.3 billion in 2020, according to a recent government press release. The only French-speaking canton paying will be Geneva. All of the rest will see the sums they receive rise compared to 2019. In 2020, Geneva will pay CHF 275 million, down slightly from the CHF 300 million it paid in 2019.

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FX Weekly Preview: Caution: Prices Diverging from Macro Drivers

2019-11-11

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2019-11-11

Sometimes the news drives the markets and but now it seems that the markets are driving the news.  The dramatic swing in market sentiment from fearing a repeat of Q4 18 and the pessimism of World Bank/IMF forecasts have been cast aside for a few data points and a tease from the world's two largest economies that an agreement to begin a de-escalation process not just extending the third tariff truce.

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EM Preview for the Week Ahead

2019-11-11

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2019-11-11

EM was mostly lower last week, as doubts crept in about the recent trade optimism. Some events also served as reminders of idiosyncratic EM risk that can’t be overlooked, such as downgrade risks (South Africa), failed oil auctions (Brazil), and violent protests (CLP). EM may remain on its back foot until we get further clarity on the US-China talks, but we remain confident in our call that a deal will be struck soon that lower existing tariffs. 

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Riding the Type 3 Mega Market Melt Up Train

2019-11-11

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2019-11-11

Beta-driven Fantasy. The decade long bull market run, aside from making everyone ridiculously rich, has opened up a new array of competencies. The proliferation of ETFs, for instance, has precipitated a heyday for the ETF Analyst. So, too, blind faith in data has prompted the rise of Psychic Quants… who see the future by modeling the past.

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Why Government Should not Fight Deflation

2019-11-11

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2019-11-11

For most experts, deflation is considered bad news since it generates expectations of a decline in prices. As a result, they believe, consumers are likely to postpone their buying of goods at present since they expect to buy these goods at lower prices in the future.

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Avenir Suisse erteilt Schweizer Staatsfonds klare Absage

2019-11-10

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2019-11-10

Kein Sparschweinchen aus SNB-Pfründen. (Bild: Shutterstock.com/ valeriiaarnaud)Das Vermögen von Norwegens erfolgreichem Staatsfonds hat die Billionen-Franken-Schwelle geknackt und erntet entsprechende mediale Aufmerksamkeit. Dies lässt auch in der Schweiz Forderungen nach einem ähnlichen Konstrukt aufleben, um vorhersehbare AHV-Finanzierungslücken dereinst zu decken.

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More than 100 members of Extinction Rebellion convicted in Switzerland

2019-11-10

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2019-11-10

In September 2019, groups of people belonging to the group Extinction Rebellion blocked two road bridges in Lausanne. Local police cleared the bridges by removing, in some cases carrying, protesters away. On 7 November 2019, 117 of the people involved in the bridge protests were convicted and fined for breaking Switzerland’s penal code, according to RTS.

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Red Flags Over Labor

2019-11-10

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2019-11-10

Establishment Survey; Payrolls 2010-2019
Better-than-expected is the new strong. Even I’m amazed at the satisfaction being taken with October’s payroll numbers. While you never focus too much on one monthly estimate, this time it might be time to do so. But not for those other reasons. Sure, GM caused some disruption and the Census is winding down, both putting everyone on edge. The whisper numbers were low double digits, maybe even a negative headline estimate.

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A Perfect Example of the Euro$ Squeeze

2019-11-10

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2019-11-10

Europe Industrial Production, 2007-2019
Germany’s vast industrial sector continued in the tank in September. According to new estimates from deStatis, that country’s government agency responsible for maintaining economic data, Industrial Production dropped by another 4% year-over-year during the month of September 2019. It was the fifth consecutive monthly decline at around that alarming rate.

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The Wave of Negative Rates Starts to Recede

2019-11-10

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2019-11-10

Negative yields on long-term European government bonds took financial markets by storm earlier this year but are starting to fade away as investors express renewed optimism about global economic growth. The yield on 10-year bonds issued by the French and Belgian governments turned positive Thursday for the first time since mid-July.

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Ocasio-Cortez is Wrong: We’re Not Working 80-Hour Weeks Now

2019-11-10

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2019-11-10

Average Annual Hours Worked by Persons Engaged for United States, Hours, Annual 1950-2017
It has become nearly commonplace for pundits and politicians to claim that Americans are working more than ever before; that they're working more jobs, and working longer hours — all for a lower income. During the Democratic debates this summer, for instance, Rep. Tim Ryan of Ohio claimed "the economic system now forces us to have two or three jobs just to get by.” Kamala Harris made similar comments.

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Negativzinsen: Für KMU überwiegen weder Kosten noch Nutzen

2019-11-09

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2019-11-09

Schweizer Unternehmen sind wenig abhängig vom Wechselkurs, da nur die wenigsten exportieren. (Bild: Shutterstock.com/guruxox)Auch fünf Jahre nach der Einführung von Negativzinsen zur Schwächung des Frankenwechselkurses durch die Schweizerische Nationalbank (SNB) deutet nichts darauf hin, dass diese Phase der Geldpolitik bald dzu Ende gehen wird.

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Swiss payments system aims to link bitcoin and retailers

2019-11-09

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2019-11-09

Prominent European payment infrastructure provider Worldline has teamed up with financial services firm Bitcoin Suisse to allow cryptocurrency enthusiasts to spend their bitcoin in Swiss shops. Worldline last year took over SIX Payment Services, the former arm of the Swiss stock exchange group that provides payment card terminals in 85,000 Swiss retail outlets.

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Demobilising Swiss merchant navy to cost another CHF100 million

2019-11-09

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2019-11-09

Switzerland will incur a further CHF100 million ($101 million) loss as it continues to reduce its merchant shipping fleet. The ongoing bill for selling off ships and meeting their debt obligations has now risen to an estimated CHF300 million, the government has admitted.

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