Tag Archive: macro

Week Ahead: Following Up a Watershed Week

2024-07-13

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2024-07-13

Slowing US jobs growth, the third consecutive rise in the unemployment rate, and the softer than expected CPI are a watershed. Although the Federal Reserve will not cut rates when it meets at the end of the month, Chair Powell will likely lay the groundwork for a cut in September. Indeed, the Fed funds future market has priced in slightly more than a 25 bp cut. The deteriorating economic conditions dragged US two-and 10-year yields to their lowest...

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Week Ahead: Market Eyes Two Fed Cuts this Year ahead of June CPI

2024-07-06

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2024-07-06

Four drivers are shaping the investment climate. First, ahead of the run-off elections in France, the market feels more comfortable that Le Pen will not secure a parliamentary majority. The French premium over Germany narrowed to 65 bp, falling by about 14 bp last week, and arguable a supportive factor for the euro. Second, the British election was largely a foregone conclusion, and Labour did secure majority. It ought not be construed as a shift...

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July 2024 Monthly

2024-06-29

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2024-06-29

July is about the Olympics and reaping what was sown in June. The UK and France will have new governments. There will be a new European Commission. China will hold its Third Plenum session, out of which many expect new measures to support the economy.The Bank of Japan may announce a plan to reduce its bond purchases, which are approximately the same as the amount maturing every month and hike rates at the end of July. Reducing its JGB holdings is...

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Week Ahead: Politics, Economics, and the Yen

2024-06-22

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2024-06-22

The relationship between interest rate expectations and the foreign exchange levels is more complicated than many textbooks or conventional wisdom allows. Australia's and Norway's central banks pushed against rate cuts this year, and their currencies were rewarded. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand said more or less the same thing, but investors are less sanguine and took the New Zealand dollar down as much as it took the Australian dollar higher....

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Week Ahead: BOE and RBA to Standpat, Political Anxiety Runs High, Giving the Dollar a Lift

2024-06-15

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2024-06-15

Under other circumstances, the softer than expected US inflation readings and the subsequent sharp drop in US interest rates would have weighed on the US dollar. Instead, the greenback managed to do well, especially against the euro, sterling, and Japanese yen. The 0.6% rise in the Dollar Index was the biggest gain in two months. The Fed's hawkish hold, with the median dot shifting to one cut this year from three in March (and last December) means...

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Week Ahead: FOMC, BOJ, and US and China Inflation

2024-06-08

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2024-06-08

The market got caught leaning the wrong way. The weakness in April's high-frequency US data encouraged participants to push the US two-year yield to its recent floor near 4.70% and took the 10-year yield to two-month lows, slightly above 4.25%.

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June 2024 Monthly

2024-06-01

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2024-06-01

There are two forces that shape the investment climate: politics and economics, and they are both at the fore in the coming weeks.Among the highlights will be the European Central Bank meeting that will mostly likely begin its easing cycle. The Bank of Canada is a close call. If it does not cut rates in June, it will probably do so in July. The Swiss National Bank may deliver its second hike in the cycle, while the Bank of England will likely...

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Holiday Overview: The State of Play

2024-05-27

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2024-05-27

FX:  The dollar traded mostly higher last week.  I suspect more near-term gains, but I am less convinced than I was a week ago.  Given the FOMC minutes and more recent commentary from Fed officials, I suspect the market is exaggerating the chances of two cuts this year.  That had been my leaning too, but I think the recent resilience of the labor market and sticky inflation has shifted the views at the Fed.  The...

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Week Ahead: Near-Term Dollar Outlook Less Clear than a Week Ago

2024-05-25

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2024-05-25

Stronger than expected data and hawkish FOMC minutes helped lift US rates and the greenback last week. That market continues to also reduce the extend of ECB easing this year is notable but did not prevent the euro from snapping a five-week advance. The 10-year Japanese government bond yield rose above 1% last week for the first time since 2012, but the US dollar traded above JPY157 for the first time since the BOJ is believed to have intervened...

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Week Ahead: After Rallying Since mid-April, are the G10 Currencies Tired?

2024-05-18

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2024-05-18

The monthly cycle of central bank meetings and high-frequency data slow in the week ahead, though the UK and Canada report on prices and demand (retail sales). The highlight of the week may be the preliminary May PMI estimates. We play down its significance in the US because its strength seems to be an outlier and it is in expansion territory while the ISM not. The dollar has generally been trending lower, with the yen being the only exception...

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May 2024 Monthly

2024-05-04

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2024-05-04

The resilience of the US economy and stickiness of price pressures spurred a reassessment of the trajectory of Fed policy. This sparked a sharp rise in US interest rates and extended the dollar’s advance. The somewhat disappointing April jobs report and a softer CPI report in the middle of May could signal that the interest rate adjustment is over. Federal Reserve Chair Powell played down the likelihood of the need to lift rates again, and as it...

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Week Ahead: FOMC, US Jobs, EMU Inflation, JPY Pressure

2024-04-27

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2024-04-27

The backing up of US rates did not lift the dollar broadly as it appeared to have done previously.  The dollar-bloc currencies, led by the Australian dollar, and sterling advanced last week, while the Swiss franc and Japanese yen were unable to find traction.  The Bank of Japan had an opportunity to have protested the yen's weakness more adamantly but did not do so.  Recognizing the role of interest rate differentials as an important driver, the...

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Where We Stand

2024-04-12

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2024-04-12

I am on vacation, and then on a business trip that will interrupt the commentary until the weekly note on April 30. The May monthly analysis will be published the following week after the FOMC meeting and April employment report.

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Week Ahead: Strong US Jobs Data Failed to Sustain Dollar Rally, Can the March CPI do Better?

2024-04-06

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2024-04-06

The March US employment data were stronger than expected and lend support to the re-acceleration hypothesis and an extension of US exceptionalism. In Q1 24, nonfarm payrolls rose by an average of 276k. It was the strongest quarter in a year and compares with an average monthly job gain of about 251k in 2023. The unemployment rate slipped as the household survey jumped around 500k after falling in the previous two months. The workweek increased, and...

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April 2024 Monthly

2024-03-30

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2024-03-30

The macroeconomic and geopolitical developments have not changed substantially over the past month. The resilience of the US economy allows the Federal Reserve to put more emphasis on achieving price stability. While the market favors a June cut (66% vs. 80% at the end of February), it has not been fully discounted for over a month. The biggest event in March may have been the well-telegraphed exit from negative interest rate policy and Yield...

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Week Ahead: Enthusiasm for the Dollar Rekindled

2024-03-23

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2024-03-23

Last week will be remembered for several things. First, the Bank of Japan lifted its interest rate target for the first time in 17 years and formally ended its Yield Curve Control and ceased buying ETFs. The yen sold off and the dollar approach the 2022 and 2023 cap slightly below JPY152. Japanese officials have used the language that has signaled heightened risk of intervention in the past. Second, the Swiss National Bank became the first G10...

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Week Ahead: Central Banks

2024-03-16

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2024-03-16

There has been a dramatic adjustment to US rates. The two-year yield was near 4.40% before the US employment report on March 8 and it reached near 4.73% before the weekend. The 25 bp surge is the largest weekly increase since last May. For the first time in four months, the Fed funds futures strip is no longer has at least three rate cuts discounted. The interest rate adjustment underpinned the dollar, which rose against all the G10 currencies last...

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Week Ahead: Will Firm Headline US CPI and a Recovery in Retail Sales Help the Dollar Recover?

2024-03-09

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2024-03-09

When everything was said and done last week, the market did not change its mind. There was still a better than 90% chance that the Federal Reserve delivers its first rate cut in June. Fed Chair Powell told Congress that the central bank was not far from the level of confidence needed to cut rates.

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March 2024 Monthly

2024-03-02

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2024-03-02

Rarely are officials able to achieve the proverbial economic soft-landing when higher interest rates help cool price pressures without triggering a significant rise in unemployment or a contraction.

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Week Ahead: With the Markets Converging (Again) with Fed’s Dots, Is the Interest Rate Adjustment Over?

2024-02-24

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2024-02-24

The US dollar and interest rates appear to be at an inflection point. Much of the past several weeks have been about correcting the overshoot that took place in  Q4 23, when the derivatives markets were pricing in nearly seven quarter-point rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year.

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