Tag Archive: jobs

Dog Days

The dog days of August for the Northern Hemisphere are here and the capital markets are relatively subdued. Equities are firmer. The notable exceptions in Asia was China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index has advanced for the last three weeks.

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Downside Risks to the US Employment Report?

Overview: The US dollar enjoys a firmer bias against the major currencies ahead of the July employment data. Emerging market currencies are mixed. Asian currencies are generally firm while central Europe is a bit softer. Some detect a relaxation in tensions around Taiwan, though China’s aerial harassment continues. Taiwanese shares jumped 2.25% to lead the region that saw China’s CSI 300 rally over 1%. Europe’s Stoxx 600 is giving back yesterday’s...

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Macro and Prices

Next week, there are three big events:  the US jobs report, the Reserve Bank of Australia meeting, and the Bank of England's meeting. That said, the final PMI readings may be more helpful this time than we often see because of how quickly it appears activity has stalled.

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Italian Politics Complicate the ECB’s Task

The appetite for risk seen earlier this week is fading. Yesterday’s US equity gains helped lift most of the large markets in the Asia Pacific region, but China’s CSI 300 fell 1.1%, giving back most of this week’s gains as credit issues from the property sector haunt sentiment.

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FX Daily, July 8: Abe’s Assassination Shocks the World

News that former Prime Minister Abe was assassinated while campaigning in Japan ahead of the weekend election shocked the nation and world. The immediate market impact looks minimal. Asia Pacific equities mostly advanced.

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What Happened Today in a Few Bullet Points

1. The most important thing to appreciate is that the market has moved to price not one but two cuts next year.  The first is priced into the September Fed funds futures and the second is in the Dec Fed funds futures. 

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Macro and Prices

(Combining the weekend macro commentary and price action review in one note.  Check out the July monthly.) Three economic reports highlight the week ahead:  Japan's labor cash earnings at the start of the week and the US employment report and China's CPI at the end of the week.

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Moderating Labor Market is what the Fed Wants

Overview: For the large rally in US stocks yesterday and the sell-off in the dollar, US rates were surprisingly little changed. This set the tone for today's action, ahead of the US employment data. Asia Pacific equities moved higher and Europe’s Stoxx 600 has edged up to extend yesterday’s rise. The 10-year US Treasury yield is little changed, hovering around 2.91%. European benchmark yields are 1-3 bp higher.

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Monetary Metals is Hiring an Associate Account Manager

Monetary Metals is growing, and we’re looking for our next key hire: Associate Account Manager. We’re giving an ounce of gold to whoever refers the successful candidate.

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US Jobs, EMU CPI, Japan’s Tankan, and China’s PMI Highlight the Week Ahead

This year was supposed to be about the easing of the pandemic and the normalization of policy. Instead, Russia's invasion of Ukraine threw a wrench in the macroeconomic forecasts as St. Peter’s victories broke the brackets of the NCAA basketball championship pools.

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For The Fed, None Of These Details Will Matter

Most people have the impression that these various payroll and employment reports just go into the raw data and count up the number of payrolls and how many Americans are employed. Perhaps the BLS taps the IRS database as fellow feds, or ADP as a private company in the same data business of employment just tallies how many payrolls it processes as the largest provider of back-office labor services.That’s just not how it works, though. In fact,...

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Capital and Commodity Markets Strain

Overview:  The capital and commodity markets are becoming less orderly.  The scramble for dollars is pressuring the cross-currency basis swaps.  Volatility is racing higher in bond and stock markets.  The industrial metals and other supplies, and foodstuffs that Russia and Ukraine are important providers have skyrocketed.  Large Asia Pacific equity markets, including Japan, Hong Kong, China, and Taiwan fell by 1%-2%, while South Korea, Australia,...

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The Greenback Finds Traction ahead of the Jobs Report

Overview:  The Omicron variant has been detected in more countries, but the capital markets are taking it in stride.  Risk appetites appear to be stabilizing.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose for the third consecutive session, though Hong Kong and Taiwan markets did not participate in the advance today.  Europe's Stoxx 600 is struggling to hold on to early gains, while US futures are narrowly mixed.  The US 10-year yield is a little near 1.43%,...

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Jobs (US) and Inflation (EMU) Highlight the Week Ahead

The new covid variant and quick imposition of travel restrictions on several countries in southern Africa have injected a new dynamic into the mix.

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FX Daily, November 9: Falling Yields Give the Yen a Boost

Overview: Reports that the Fed's Brainard was interviewed for the Chair helped soften yields a bit, not that they needed extra pressure, on ideas she is more dovish than Powell.  In turn, the lower yields saw the yen rise to its best level in nearly a month and led the major currencies higher against the dollar. 

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Isn’t the Labor Shortage Transitory?

Overview:  The major central banks have successfully pushed back against the aggressive tightening the market had discounted.  The Bank of England's decision not to raise rates after key officials seemed to suggest one was imminent. On the heels of what we argued was a dovish tapering announcement by the Fed, it spurred a dramatic decline in short and long-term interest rates. The drop in UK rates--21 bp in the 2-year and nearly 14 bp in the...

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The Week Ahead: Four Central Banks and the US Jobs Report

The Bank of England and the Federal Reserve meetings are the highlights of the week ahead.  Usually, the US jobs report is the main feature of the beginning of a new month's high-frequency data cycle. However, the FOMC meeting two days earlier may take away some of its significance, even if it still possesses some headline risk.  Two other major central banks meet in the first week of November.  The Reserve Bank of Australia meets early on November...

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FX Daily, July 15: Strong Gains in US CPI and PPI Don’t Stop the Bond Market Rally

Strong inflation prints this week have not prevented the long-term US interest rates from tumbling. The 10-year yield is about 10 bp lower than where it closed on Tuesday after the lackluster 30-year auction. The 30-year yield itself is 11 bp lower.

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FX Daily, July 02: US Jobs and OPEC+ Day

The US jobs report and OPEC+ decision are awaited. The dollar remains bid.  Only the yen and Canadian dollar are showing a hint of resilience, though, on the week, the Scandis and dollar-bloc currencies are off between around 1-2%. The greenback is also firmer against the emerging market currency complex, and the JP Morgan index is off for the sixth consecutive session.

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FX Daily, June 04: US and Canada Report on Jobs as G7 Fin Mins Talk Taxes

Stronger than expected US employment data, ahead of today's monthly report and compromise proposal on corporate tax by the White House to help secure a deal on infrastructure sent US bond yields and the dollar high. Late dollar shorts were forced to cover.

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