Tag Archive: jobs

FX Daily, March 06: Panic Deepens, US Employment Data Means Little

The sharp sell-off in US equities and yields yesterday is spurring a mini-meltdown globally today. Many of the Asia Pacific markets, including Japan, Australia, Taiwan, and India, saw more than 2% drops, while most others fell more than 1%. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index snapped the four-day advance had lifted it about 2.8% coming into today.

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FX Daily, February 7: Dollar Rides High as Eurozone Disappoints, and Caution Sets In

Overview: A more cautious tone is evident today in the markets, which seem to have run well ahead of macro developments and evidence that the new coronavirus is not yet contained. After a roughly 3.5% advance in the past three sessions, the MSCI Asia Pacific index pulled back with nearly the markets in the region slipping.

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Very Rough Shape, And That’s With The Payroll Data We Have Now

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has begun the process of updating its annual benchmarks. Actually, the process began last year and what’s happening now is that the government is releasing its findings to the public. Up first is the Household Survey, the less-watched, more volatile measure which comes at employment from the other direction. As the name implies, the BLS asks households who in them is working whereas the more closely scrutinized...

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FX Daily, January 10: Jobs Friday: Asymmetrical Risks?

Overview:  The first full week of 2020 is ending on a quiet note, pending the often volatile US jobs report.  New record highs US equities on the back of easing geopolitical anxiety is a reflection of greater risk appetite that is evident across the capital markets.  Asia Pacific equities mostly rose today, though Chinese shares and a few of the smaller markets saw small losses. 

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FX Weekly Preview: High-Frequency Data may Underscore Four Thematic Points

Full liquidity returns to the markets gradually in the coming days, and the week ahead culminates with the US December employment report.  The highlights include the service and composite PMI readings,  and December eurozone and China's CPI.  The UK reports December PMIs,  November GDP, and industrial output figures.

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Disposable (Employment) Figures

If last month’s payroll report was declared to be strong at +128k, then what would that make this month’s +266k? Epic? Heroic? The superlatives are flying around today, as you should expect. This Payroll Friday actually fits the times. It wasn’t great, they never really are nowadays (when you adjust for population and participation), but it was a good one nonetheless.

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FX Daily, December 6: And Now for the Employment Report

Overview:  Asia Pacific equities closed higher today, with India being a notable exception.  Hong Kong and South Korea led with 1% rallies.  For the week, the MSCI index for the region advanced to snap a three-week decline.  European and US bourses have not fared as well.  The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is paring this week's losses, but it is still off around 0.9% through the European morning session. 

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FX Daily, November 1: Dollar Remains on the Defensive Ahead of Jobs Report

Overview: An unexpected increase in China's Caixin manufacturing PMI helped lift Asia Pacific equities after the S&P 500 stumbled yesterday amid concerns that there will not be a phase 2 in US-China trade negotiations. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 4.3% in October, and with the help of gains in China, Hong Kong, Korea, and Taiwan began November with a gain.

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FX Weekly Preview: Fed’s Mid-Course Correction to be Challenged while ECB Resumes Bond Purchases

The week ahead will help shape the investment climate for the remainder of the year.  The highlights include three central bank meetings (Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, and the Bank of Canada).  Among the high-frequency data, the US and the eurozone report the first estimates of Q3 GDP, and the US October jobs data and auto sales will be released.  Investors will also get the preliminary Oct CPI for EMU.

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FX Daily, October 4: The US Jobs Data to Close a Sobering Week

Overview: The recovery of US shares yesterday signaled today's fragile stability. Gains in Japan, Australia, and Taiwan blunted the losses elsewhere in the region, including a 1% slide in Hong Kong.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell for the third week. China's markets have been closed since Monday and will re-open Monday and may play some catch-up.

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FX Weekly Preview: Forces of Movement at the Start of Q4 19

The world's largest economy appears to have grown by about 2% in Q3 at an annualized pace, the same as in Q2, and in line with what many Fed officials understand to be trend growth.  The strength of the US labor market underpins consumption, the powerful engine of the US economy.  The latest readings of both the labor market and consumption will highlight the economic data in the week ahead. 

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FX Daily, June 7: Jobs Data and Tariffs Dominate

Overview:  Global equities continue to recover from the recent slide.  Chinese and Hong Kong markets were on holiday today, but the MSCI Asia Pacific Index eked out a minor gain and ensured that its four-week slide ended.  Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is up about 0.7% through the European morning. 

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FX Daily, April 05: Trade Talk and German Industrial Output Lifts Sentiment

Overview:  Comments by Chinese President Xi, recognizing substantial progress in trade, helped boost sentiment after the US-China negotiators failed to set a date for the meeting between the two presidents.  Although we have argued that the German economy may be past the worst, the sharp drop in factory orders spooked investors.

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Short Note on Jobs Report

The January employment report was mixed.  It is unlikely to have a material impact on expectations for Fed policy.  However, it does suggest the downside risks may not materialize. The US economy grew 304k jobs, well above expectation.  It is marred by a 70k net downward revision of the past two months, and notably a 90k cut in December's estimate, which brings it to 222k (from 312k). 

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Great Graphic: Weekly Jobless Claims and the S&P 500

The softer than expected PCE deflator today plays into the dovish market mood. There may be little that can resist it until next Friday's employment data, which should be another robust report with hourly earnings holding above 3% year-over-year.  Last November, average hourly earnings rose by 0.3%. As this drops out of the year-over-year comparison, even a healthy bounce back from the 0.2% drop skewed by the hurricane will be needed just to hold...

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Two-thirds of Swiss see artificial intelligence as job threat

Only 34% of Swiss people believe their jobs are not at risk from automation and machine learning, according to a survey commissioned by the Swiss Broadcasting Corporation (SBC). Almost half of the 2,092 people surveyed by the Link Institute for SBC felt that some of their daily tasks could be done by machines and algorithms, while 15% were convinced that robots could do much of their work.

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FX Daily, October 05: US Jobs Data will Test Dollar Bulls and Bond Bears

The US dollar is firmer against most of the major and emerging market currencies. The yen and sterling are resisting the pressure, while the South African rand and Russian rouble are paring some of this week's declines. US equity losses yesterday weighed on Asian and European trading today.

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Jump in Hourly Earnings is Key to US Jobs, while Canada adds 40k Full-Time Positions

The 201k rise in US non-farm payrolls edged above the median forecasts, but the 50k downward revision to the past two-months removes the gloss.   It is the first August report in seven years that the initial estimate was above the Bloomberg median.  The most important part of the report was the 0.4% jump in hourly earnings, lifting the year-over-year rate to a new cyclical high of 2.9%.

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FX Daily, August 03: Greenback Remains Firm Ahead of Jobs, JGBs Stabilize, Italian Debt Moves into Spotlight

The US dollar is trading at the upper end of its recent ranges against the euro and sterling. The euro finished below $1.16 yesterday for the first time since the end of June and has not been able to resurface that level so far today.

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FX Weekly Preview: Three Central Bank Meetings and US Jobs data

The week ahead sees three major central bank meetings and the US employment report. It will likely be the most important work before a hiatus that runs through the end of August. Of course, and perhaps more than ever, market participants are well aware that the US President's communication and penchant for disruption is a bit of a wild card.

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