Tag Archive: Japan

Half a Dozen Things You Should Know about FX

2021-11-11

by

2021-11-11

1.  The market is still digesting the implications of Wednesday's CPI shock.  The dollar has strengthened, yields have risen, the stock market wobbled after a long advancing streak, and in any event, stabilized in light trading during the US and Canadian holidays. However, given the low year-ago reading, there is a significant risk that inflation (including the core rate) will accelerate over the next few months. As a result, the Federal Reserve...

Read More »

FX Daily, November 9: Falling Yields Give the Yen a Boost

2021-11-09

by

2021-11-09

Overview: Reports that the Fed's Brainard was interviewed for the Chair helped soften yields a bit, not that they needed extra pressure, on ideas she is more dovish than Powell.  In turn, the lower yields saw the yen rise to its best level in nearly a month and led the major currencies higher against the dollar. 

Read More »

Markets Await Fresh Developments

2021-11-08

by

2021-11-08

Overview: Last week's bond market rally has stalled.  Benchmark 10-year yields are up 1-3 bp in Europe, and the three bp increase in the US puts the yield slightly below 1.50%.  Equities were mixed in the Asia Pacific region. 

Read More »

Isn’t the Labor Shortage Transitory?

2021-11-05

by

2021-11-05

Overview:  The major central banks have successfully pushed back against the aggressive tightening the market had discounted.  The Bank of England's decision not to raise rates after key officials seemed to suggest one was imminent. On the heels of what we argued was a dovish tapering announcement by the Fed, it spurred a dramatic decline in short and long-term interest rates. The drop in UK rates--21 bp in the 2-year and nearly 14 bp in the...

Read More »

And the Dollar Bounces Back, While BOE is in Focus

2021-11-04

by

2021-11-04

Overview:  The Federal Reserve announced tapering and, like the Reserve Bank of Australia earlier in the week, did not validate expectations for an aggressive rate hike.  Now the focus is on the Bank of England, where several officials seemed to goad the market into lifting short-term rates. The S&P 500 and NASDAQ rallied to new record highs yesterday and helped raise global shares today.  Among the large markets in the Asia Pacific region,...

Read More »

US-EU Rapprochement, Can France and UK Do the Same?

2021-11-01

by

2021-11-01

Overview:  It is mostly a quiet start to the new month.  Most of Europe is closed for the All -Saints holiday and the week's key events start tomorrow with the Reserve Bank of Australia meeting.  News that the Liberal Democrats retained a majority in the lower chamber of the Diet helped lift Japanese indices by 2%.  Most of the large regional markets gained, though China and Hong Kong markets fell. US index futures are trading with a higher bias...

Read More »

Rate Adjustment Continues and the Greenback Pares the Week’s Losses

2021-10-29

by

2021-10-29

Overview:  Disappointing Apple and Amazon earnings news after the NASDAQ set a record high set the stage of a weaker bias in the Asia Pacific region today.  China and Japan still posted gains, while local developments, like an unexpected drop in South Korea's industrial output, and Australia struggling to exit its yield-curve control, saw equities lose more than 1%.  Europe's Stoxx 600 is paring this week's gains but is holding on to some for the...

Read More »

Eyes Turn to the ECB and the First Look at Q3 US GDP

2021-10-28

by

2021-10-28

Overview:  The market awaits the ECB meeting and the first look at the US Q3 GDP.  The pullback in US shares yesterday was a drag on the Asia Pacific equities.  It is the first back-to-back loss of the MSCI Asia Pacific in a few weeks.  Europe's Stoxx 600 is recovering from early weakness and US future indices are firm.  The US 10-year yield is flat, around 1.55%, after falling around 15 bp over the past four sessions.  European bonds are paring...

Read More »

An Anti-Inflation Trio From Three Years Ago

2021-10-26

by

2021-10-26

Do the similarities outweigh the differences? We better hope not. There is a lot about 2021 that is shaping up in the same way as 2018 had (with a splash of 2013 thrown in for disgust). Guaranteed inflation, interest rates have nowhere to go but up, and a certified rocking recovery restoring worldwide potential.

Read More »

Big Week Begins Slowly

2021-10-25

by

2021-10-25

Overview:  The global capital markets give little indication of the important economic and earnings data that lie ahead this week.  There is an eerie calm. Equities in Asia were mixed.  Japan and Hong Kong, and most small bourses were lower.  Last week, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained almost 0.9%. Europe's Stoxx 600 is little changed after rising about 0.5% last week. US futures are firm.  The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrials reached...

Read More »

You Don’t Have To Take My Word For It About Eliminating QE

2021-10-24

by

2021-10-24

You don’t have to take my word for it. QE doesn’t work and it never has. That’s not just my assessment, pull out any chart of interest rates for wherever gets the misfortune of having been wasted with one of these LSAP’s.

Read More »

The Euro and Sterling Remain within Tuesday’s Ranges

2021-10-22

by

2021-10-22

Overview: A new record high in the S&P 500 yesterday and news that Evergrande had made an interest rate payment failed to lift most Asia Pacific bourses, though Japan and Hong Kong, among the large markets, posted modest gains.  The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is pushing higher in the European morning to put its finishing touches on its third consecutive weekly gain.  US tech is trading off, and this is weighing on the NASDAQ futures while the S&P...

Read More »

Markets Turn Cautious

2021-10-21

by

2021-10-21

Overview: After a couple of sessions of taking on more risk, investors are taking a break today.  Equities are mostly lower today after the S&P 500's six-day advance took it almost to its record high, while the NASDAQ's streak was halted at five sessions.

Read More »

Consolidative Session as Markets Await Fresh Incentives

2021-10-20

by

2021-10-20

Overview: The markets lack a clear direction today and await fresh incentives.  After gaining almost 1% yesterday, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index slipped.  Japan, Hong Kong, and Australia are among the few equity markets that rose.

Read More »

Dollar Slumps

2021-10-19

by

2021-10-19

Overview:  While equities and bonds are firmer, it is the dollar's sell-off that stands out today.  The greenback has retreated broadly.   

Read More »

The Euro Remains Within Last Wednesday’s Range

2021-10-12

by

2021-10-12

Overview:  A weak close in US equity trading yesterday and the widening of China's "cultural revolution" for a two-month investigation of the financial sector stopped a three-day advance in the MSCI Asia Pacific Index.  China, South Korea, and Taiwan saw more than a 1% decline in their major indices. 

Read More »

FX Daily, October 11: Rate Expectation Adjustment Continues

2021-10-11

by

2021-10-11

Overview:  Equities are softer and yields higher to start the new week.  The dollar is mixed.  Oil and industrial metals are higher. There are several developments over the weekend, but the focus seems to be on central bank action, inflation reports by the US and China, and the start of the Q3 earnings season. 

Read More »

Weekly Market Pulse: Zooming Out

2021-10-03

by

2021-10-03

How often do you check your brokerage account? There is a famous economics paper from 1997, written by some of the giants in behavioral finance (Thaler, Kahnemann, Tversky & Schwartz), that tested what is known as myopic loss aversion.

Read More »

Hard to Be Sterling

2021-09-29

by

2021-09-29

Overview: Energy prices pulled back late yesterday, but it offered little reprieve to the bond market where the 10-year benchmark yields in the US, UK, Sweden, and Switzerland reached new three-month highs.  November WTI traded to almost $76.70 before reversing lower and leaving a potentially bearish shooting star candlestick in its wake. 

Read More »

August Avoids Zero In JGB’s

2021-09-28

by

2021-09-28

Central banks and their staffs have long been accused of trying to hide inflation. This allegation had been a staple of their critics, those charging reckless monetary policies for creating “too much” money that had allegedly been causing price imbalances all over the financial map.

Read More »