Tag Archive: Interest rates

FX Weekly Preview: Twas the Week Before Christmas, Amidst Powerful Trends

The Nikkei, the dollar-yen and 10 yr US yield have risen nine of the past 11 weeks. The Dollar Index and 2 yr US yields have risen while gold has sold off in eight of past 11 weeks. Issue in next two weeks, profit-taking or trend extension? Spoiler alert: I expect some profit-taking.

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FX Weekly Preview: Shifting Paradigms and the Market Adjustment

Perceptions of two trends shape the investment climate: reflation and nationalism. Fed rate hike set for next month, barring significant surprise. Japan's trade surplus is growing even as imports and exports continue to contract.

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End Of The Bond Bull – Better Hope Not

It’s been really busy as of late to cover all of the topics I have wanted to address. One topic, in particular, is the bond market and the ongoing concerns of a “bond bubble” due to historically low interest rates in the U.S. and, by direct consequence, historically high bond prices.

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Demographics and a New Old Paradigm

The hangover from the debt crisis and secular stagnation are the two main explanatory models for the low growth and low interest rates. Anew Fed paper brings the focus back to demographics. If true, warns of a protracted period of slow growth, low interest rates.

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Canadian Dollar: A Little Less About Oil, a Little More about Rates

The Canadian dollar's link to oil has loosened. Its sensitivity to interest rates has increased. Lumber issue is coming to a head shortly.

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Natural Rates and Terminal Fed Funds

The neutral or natural interest rate is linked to potential growth. Potential growth has fallen so has the neutral rate. The implication is that the FOMC has made the bulk of the adjustment on its long-term Fed funds forecast.

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Falling Yields, Rising Asset Prices -Rising Yields,Falling Prices

Our paper currency causes falling productivity, though not in terms of bushels per acre. What falls is productivity per dollar or euro of savings. This is the real meaning of the falling interest rate. When the rate was 10 percent, $1,000 of principal produced $100 of return. When it falls to two percent, then the same capital generates a return of only $20. Now with the Swiss 10-year bond, CHF 1,000 earns only CHF 1.3. Keith Weiner argues that one...

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The Gold Standard For Democrats

Keith Weiner describes how the Fed pushes down the interest rate and due to that, it drives up prices of food and rents. This implies that businesses are clearly priviliged against workers. The gold standard does the opposite, if prefers savings and workers. Hence Democrats should be fan of the gold standard.

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Business Cycles

The typical backstops of all improvements in business cycles are high oil prices and inflation. Inflation is mostly caused by local effects.

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Our Core Thesis



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Hans Werner Sinn’s Piketty Critique: “r ≠ i > g”

Hans Werner Sinn has formulated his critique with Piketty. Sinn says that: r ≠ i > g, hence Interest rates i are usually higher than economic growth g, but r is not the same as i. Hence r can be higher or lower than g.

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Danthine: SNB would end franc cap once it raises interest rates

It was obvious already at the latest SNB Monetary Policy Assessment, the SNB is becoming more and more hawkish. At the forefront is its ueber-hawk Jean-Pierre Danthine, the person responsible for the overheating Swiss housing market. He has now announced: SNB would end franc limit once it raises interest rates The Swiss National Bank will …

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SNB Statistical Publications



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