Tag Archive: industry

What Did Hamper Growth ‘In A Few Months’

2020-12-18

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2020-12-18

US Industrial Production, SA 2011-2020
Over here, on the other side of that ocean, the US economy can only dream of the low levels Chinese industry has been putting up this late into 2020. At least those in the East are back positive year-over-year. Here in America, manufacturing and industry can’t even manage anything like a plus sign.

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With No Second Half Rebound, Confirming The Squeeze

2020-01-29

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2020-01-29

Germany ZEW Financial Market Survey, 2006-2019
It’s a palpable impatience. Having learned absolutely nothing from the most recent German example, there’s this pervasive belief that if the economy hasn’t fallen apart by now it must be going the other way. The right way. Those are the only two options for mainstream analysis (which means it isn’t analysis).

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Not Abating, Not By A Longshot

2020-01-14

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2020-01-14

Mexican Economy, 2006-2019
Since I advertised the release last week, here’s Mexico’s update to Industrial Production in November 2019. The level of production was estimated to have fallen by 1.8% from November 2018. It was up marginally on a seasonally-adjusted basis from its low in October.

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Nothing Good From A Chinese Industrial Recession

2019-11-30

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2019-11-30

China Industry, 2001-2019
October 2017 continues to show up as the most crucial month across a wide range of global economic data. In the mainstream telling, it should have been a very good thing, a hugely positive inflection. That was the time of true inflation hysteria around the globe, though it was always presented as a rationally-determined base case rather than the unsupported madness it really was.

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Still Stuck In Between

2019-11-09

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2019-11-09

IHS Markit U.S. Manufacturing, 2012-2019
There wasn’t much by way of the ISM’s Manufacturing PMI to allay fears of recession. Much like the payroll numbers, an uncolored analysis of them, anyway, there was far more bad than good. For the month of October 2019, the index rose slightly from September’s decade low. At 48.3, it was up just half a point last month from the month prior

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Japan: Fall Like Germany, Or Give Hope To The Rest of the World?

2019-08-29

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2019-08-29

Japan JGB, Jan 2014 - Jul 2019
After trading overnight in Asia, Japan’s government bond market is within a hair’s breadth of setting new record lows. The 10-year JGB is within a basis point and a fraction of one while the 5-year JGB has only 2 bps to reach. It otherwise seems at odds with the mainstream narrative at least where Japan’s economy is concerned.

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Green Shoot or Domestic Stall?

2019-04-17

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2019-04-17

U.S. Industrial Production, SA 2007-2019
According to revised figures, things were really looking up for US industry. For the month of April 2018, the Federal Reserve’s Diffusion Index (3-month) for Industrial Production hit 68.2. Like a lot of other sentiment indicators, this was the highest in so long it had to be something. For this particular index, it hadn’t seen better than 68 since way back in March 2010, back when the economy looked briefly like it might actually recover.

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Slump, Downturn, Recession; All Add Up To Sideways

2019-03-22

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2019-03-22

Germany ZEW Financial Market Survey 2007-2019
According to Germany’s Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung, or ZEW, the slump in the country’s economy has now reached its fourteenth month. The institute’s sentiment index has improved in the last two, but only slightly. As of the latest calculation released today, it stands at -3.6.

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Meanwhile, Over In Asia

2019-03-02

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2019-03-02

Japan Industrial Production, SA 2008-2019
While Western markets breathed a sigh of relief that US GDP didn’t confirm the global slowdown, not yet, what was taking place over in Asia went in the other direction. There has been a sense, a wish perhaps, that if the global economy truly did hit a rough spot it would be limited to just the last three months of 2018. Hopefully Mario Draghi is on to something.

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Industrial Fading

2018-12-19

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2018-12-19

Federal Reserve Empire State Manu. Index 2001-2018
It is time to start paying attention to PMI’s again, some of them. There are those like the ISM’s Manufacturing Index which remains off in a world of its own. The version of the goods economy suggested by this one index is very different than almost every other. It skyrocketed in late summer last year way out of line (highest in more than a decade) with any other economic account.

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China’s Industrial Dollar

2018-10-03

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2018-10-03

China Industry Revenue, Aug 2008 - 2018
In December 2006, just weeks before the outbreak of “unforeseen” crisis, then-Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke discussed the breathtaking advance of China’s economy. He was in Beijing for a monetary conference, and the unofficial theme of his speech, as I read it, was “you can do better.” While economic gains were substantial, he said, they were uneven.

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Globally Synchronized Asynchronous Growth

2018-05-26

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2018-05-26

US Industrial Production, Jan 2006 - May 2018
Industrial Production in the United States rose 3.5% year-over-year in April 2018, down slightly from a revised 3.7% rise in March. Since accelerating to 3.4% growth back in November 2017, US industry has failed to experience much beyond that clear hurricane-related boost. IP for prior months, particularly February and March 2018, were revised significantly lower.

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The Dismal Boom

2018-01-25

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2018-01-25

Friedman's Plucking Model of Trend-Cycle
There is a fundamental assumption behind any purchasing manager index, or PMI. These are often but not always normalized to the number 50. That’s done simply for comparison purposes and the ease of understanding in the general public. That level at least in the literature and in theory is supposed to easily and clearly define the difference between growth and contraction.

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Industrial production: The Chinese Appear To Be Rushed

2018-01-04

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2018-01-04

All China's Dollars, Aug 2016 - Jan 2018
While the Western world was off for Christmas and New Year’s, the Chinese appeared to have taken advantage of what was a pretty clear buildup of “dollars” in Hong Kong. Going back to early November, HKD had resumed its downward trend indicative of (strained) funding moving again in that direction (if it was more normal funding, HKD wouldn’t move let alone as much as it has). China’s currency, however, was curiously restrained during that...

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The Economy Likes Its IP Less Lumpy

2017-12-23

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2017-12-23

US Industrial Production, Jan 2011 - Dec 2017
Industrial Production rose 3.4% year-over-year in November 2017, the highest growth rate in exactly three years. The increase was boosted by the aftermath of Harvey and Irma, leaving more doubt than optimism for where US industry is in 2017. For one thing, of that 3.4% growth rate, more than two-thirds was attributable to just two months.

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Giant Sucking Sound Sucks (Far) More Than US Industry Now

2017-12-11

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2017-12-11

Case Study in Conundrum, Jan 1997 - 2004
There are two possibilities with regard to stubbornly weak US imports in 2017. The first is the more obvious, meaning that the domestic goods economy despite its upturn last year isn’t actually doing anything positive other than no longer being in contraction. The second would be tremendously helpful given the circumstances of American labor in the whole 21st century so far. In other words, perhaps US consumers really are buying at a healthy pace,...

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Industrial Production Still Reflating

2017-11-20

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2017-11-20

US Industrial Production, Jan 1995 - Nov 2017
Industrial Production benefited from a hurricane rebound in October 2017, rising 2.9% above October 2016. That is the highest growth rate in nearly three years going back to January 2015. With IP lagging behind the rest of the manufacturing turnaround, this may be the best growth rate the sector will experience. Production overall was still contracting all the way to November 2016, providing the index favorable base comparisons that won’t last past...

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Vehicle Sales, Consumer Price Index and Average Weekly Hours: More Than Minor Auto Potential

2017-07-11

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2017-07-11

US JD Power and LMC Automotive Vehicle Sales
According to Edmunds.com, in June 2017 the average length of a new vehicle loan has been stretched to a record 69.3 months. JD Power says that incentives last month were running at more than 10% of MSRP, the eleventh time over the past twelve months where manufacturers have so heavily discounted. And yet, the auto industry would have us believe that the problem is one of fleet sales rather than of consumers.

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Oil Prices and Manufacturing PMI: No Backing Sentiment

2017-07-04

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2017-07-04

Oil Prices
When the price of oil first collapsed at the end of 2014, it was characterized widely as a “supply glut.” It wasn’t something to be concerned about because it was believed attributable to success, and American success no less. Lower oil prices would be another benefit to consumers on top of the “best jobs market in decades.”

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Commodity and Oil Prices: Staying Suck

2017-05-24

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2017-05-24

U.S. Industrial Production, 2006-2017
The rebound in commodity prices is not difficult to understand, perhaps even sympathize with. With everything so depressed early last year, if it turned out to be no big deal in the end then there was a killing to be made. That’s what markets are supposed to do, entice those with liquidity to buy when there is blood in the streets. And if those speculators turn out to be wrong, then we are all much the wiser for their pain.

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