Tag Archive: France

Fall of French Government Does Not Roil the Markets and a BOJ Dove did not Rule out Rate Hike this Month

2024-12-05

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2024-12-05

Overview: The US dollar is mostly softer today. The only G10 currency that has not gained on it today is the Swedish krona, which is nursing minor losses. Still, the tone is one of consolidation and this may persist through the North American session, ahead of tomorrow US employment report. The median forecast in Bloomberg's survey has crept up to 215k. Most emerging market currencies have also gained on  greenback, but the South Korean won. The...

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US-China Exchange Export Restrictions, Yuan is Sold to New Lows for the Year, while the Greenback Extends Waller’s Inspired Losses

2024-12-03

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2024-12-03

Overview: The US dollar has extended the losses scored late yesterday when Federal Reserve Governor Waller indicated he was still leaning toward a December rate cut. The odds of a rate cut rose to around 76% from about 66% at the end of last week. The odds are slightly lower today, around 72%. A solid jobs report on Friday and another uptick in CPI may change some minds. The only G10 currency that is weaker today is the Japanese yen, and it is off...

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Trump’s Tariff Talks Wobble Forex Market, Close Neighbors Suffer Most

2024-11-26

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2024-11-26

Overview: As some market pundits were debating about a possible grand deal between the US and China. In exchange for a lighter tariff regime, Beijing would accept yuan appreciation. As far-fetched as such scenario may be, it was predicated on ideas that people like the Bessent, the Treasury Secretary-nominee, was pragmatic. Trump's comments hit in early Asia Pacific turnover specifically cited a 25% tariff on all product from Canada and Mexico and...

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The Market Discounts around a 40% Chance of not One but Two 50 bp Cuts in last Three FOMC Meetings of the Year Ahead of Jobs Report

2024-09-06

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2024-09-06

Overview: The US jobs report is front and center. The market is going into the report with about a 40% chance of a 50 bp Fed rate cut later this month. The Dollar Index is trading lower for the third consecutive session. Helped by the fifth consecutive decline in US 10-year yields, the yen approached last month's high but without the turmoil seen in July and August. Still, equity markets are under pressure. Most large markets in the Asia Pacific...

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Narrow Ranges for the Dollar Prevail Ahead of Tomorrow’s US CPI

2024-07-10

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2024-07-10

Overview: The dollar is mostly softer today, but largely within the recent ranges, as the market appears to be waiting for tomorrow's US CPI. There are a few exceptions to note. The yen is trading near its recent lows. A less hawkish Reserve Bank of New Zealand has triggered a sell-off of the local dollar. Softer than expected Norwegian inflation has knocked the krone lower. Most emerging market currencies are firmer, with several Asia Pacific...

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Quiet Summer Tuesday with Powell’s Testimony and a Deluge of US Supply on Tap

2024-07-09

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2024-07-09

Overview: In the absence of fresh developments, the dollar is consolidating in narrow ranges today against the G10 currencies and enjoys as slight upward bias against most emerging market currencies but for a few currencies from the Asia Pacific region. With practically an empty US data calendar, Fed Chair Powell's testimony with be the highlight, and a soft headline CPI on Thursday anticipated. The US two-year premium over Germany has fallen from...

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Euro is Little Changed, while the Yen is Softer to Start the New Week

2024-07-08

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2024-07-08

Overview: The dollar is narrowly mixed against the G10 and emerging market currencies today. The euro is little changed, holding on to last week's gains, after the surprising French election results, where the focus shifts finding a prime minister that can carry a majority of the new and closely divided National Assembly. Despite firm underlying wage data, the Japanese yen has given back its initial gains, and the dollar is pushing back above...

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Sigh of Relief Lifts French Markets, But…

2024-07-01

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2024-07-01

Overview: The market feels a bit more at ease after the first round of the French elections that extreme policies will be avoided by an effort to deny the National Rally a legislative majority. French stocks have recouped some of their recent losses and the euro reached $1.0775, its best level since June 13. The yen remains soft after the Tankan survey showed little change but an uptick in capex plans. Outside of the yen and Swiss franc, the dollar...

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Will the PCE Deflator Really Contain New Information?

2024-06-28

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2024-06-28

Overview: The US dollar is narrowly mixed as North American participants prepare to return for the last session of the first half. Despite firmer than expected Tokyo CPI and stronger than expected industrial output, the market lifted the greenback around JPY161.25 before profit-taking pressures bought it back toward session lows near JPY160.65 in Europe. President Biden is thought to have lost last night's debate with Trump, but it does not appear...

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The Greenback Consolidates while Sustaining Break against the Yen

2024-06-27

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2024-06-27

Overview: The dollar is sporting a softer profile today against all the G10 currencies but the Swedish krona. The Riksbank sounded more dovish than previously, signaling the possibility of a cut in each of the last three meetings of the year. The dollar has sustained its push above JPY160 against the Japanese yen. Most emerging market currencies are also firmer, with the notable exception of Türkiye and South Africa. Türkiye is expected to keep its...

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US Dollar Offered, but Intra-Day Momentum Indicators are Stretched

2024-06-24

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2024-06-24

Overview: The Dollar Index reached its best level since May 1 before the weekend but has come back softer against all the G10 currencies and most emerging market currencies. There is no apparent driver, and the intraday day momentum indicators caution against expecting much in the way of follow through gains in North America. The dollar edged closed to JPY160 and triggered official intervention warnings. The market has turned cautious and is...

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Self-Inflicted Wounds in Europe and Japan Help the Greenback Shrug Off the Drag of Lower Rates

2024-06-14

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2024-06-14

Overview: The dollar is bid. What makes its performance standout is that it is taking place as US rates have fallen. The US 10-year yield is near 4.20%, the lowest in more than two months. The two-year yield is near 4.67%. It has fallen every session this week for a cumulative decline of more than 20 bp. It is not so much that constructive developments took week, but that Europe and Japan are suffering from self-inflicted injury. Macron's call for...

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Euro Sold After EU Parliament Elections and Macron’s Gambit

2024-06-10

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2024-06-10

Overview:  With mixed elements, the market took the US jobs data as relatively strong and took the dollar and US rates higher. The EU Parliament election has shaken up European politics, with the Belgium government collapsing and French President Macron calling a snap legislative election for the end of the month. Holidays in China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Australia made for thinner Asia Pacific trading, but the euro was sold and has reached to...

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Don’t be Burned in the Churn

2024-01-10

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2024-01-10

Overview: The broad consolidation in the dollar after the gyrations at the end of last week continues, and within it the greenback is a bit softer today. Among the G10 currencies, only the yen is failing to post gains. Most emerging market currencies, led by central Europe, are also firmer today. A notable exception is a handful of Asian currencies, include the South Korean won, Taiwanese dollar, and the Philippine peso. The market's focus is on...

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Consolidative Tone Emerges Ahead of Tomorrow’s US Jobs and EMU CPI

2024-01-04

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2024-01-04

Overview: After gaining for the past couple of sessions to open the New Year, the dollar is mostly softer today. The yen is the main exception. The greenback was bid above the JPY144 area where chunky options expire today. Most emerging market currencies are also firmer though there are a few exceptions in Asia, like the South Korean won and Thai baht. Still, the general tone is consolidative ahead of tomorrow US jobs data and the eurozone's CPI....

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Fitch Puts US on Negative Credit Watch and the Dollar Extends its Gains

2023-05-25

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2023-05-25

Overview: Concerned about the political wrangling over servicing US debt, Fitch put the US on negative credit watch. Besides chin wagging and finger pointing, it has had little perceptible impact. The dollar is mostly higher, reaching new highs for the year against the Japanese yen, Chinese yuan, and the Antipodean currencies. The euro and sterling met retracement objective we have targeted (~$1.0735 and $1.2435, respectively). The greenback is...

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France on strike

2023-05-02

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2023-05-02

The roots of the injustice that brought over a million to the streets  It is the core of a long running joke that the French love to strike more than they like to work – and for good reason. Demonstrations, strikes and even riots, have been a common occurrence for decades. However, this latest round seems to be interestingly persistent, despite the fact that it’s receiving increasingly sparse media coverage.   The last time that the French...

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Dollar Comes Back Bid, as First Republic Taken Over (Mostly) by JP Morgan

2023-05-01

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2023-05-01

Overview: Most markets are closed for the May Day holiday. News that JP Morgan will acquire most of First Republic assets will be a relief for the markets. US equity futures are slightly firmer, and the 10-year Treasury yield is around three basis points higher, slightly above 3.45%. Recall that before the weekend, it has fallen from almost 3.55% to 3.42%. The market has more than a 90% chance of a quarter-point hike discounted for Wednesday. The...

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Firm US Dollar as Market is Feeling More Comfortable with May Hike

2023-04-17

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2023-04-17

Overview: The dollar fell most of last week but reversed higher before the weekend. It has seen some follow-through gains, albeit limited against most of the G10 currencies today. Despite some seemingly dovish comments by a few Fed officials last week, the Fed funds futures is pricing in the greatest chance for a hike at the early May meeting since the banking stress erupted last month. The greenback is also trading with a firmer bias against most...

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Calmer Markets to Start the New Week

2023-03-27

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2023-03-27

Overview: There did not appear to be any negative surprises over the weekend, and this is helping calm investors' nerves at the start of the new week. Deutsche Bank shares have recovered most of the pre-weekend loss in the German market, and Stoxx bank index is posting a gain for the first time in four sessions. The AT1 ETF is slightly softer. In Japan, the Topix bank index slipped around 0.5%, its fourth decline in the past five sessions. Asia...

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