Tag Archive: Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy
Weekly Market Pulse: It’s An Uncertain World
You’re going to hear a lot of talk about the yield curve soon and what it means for “the” yield curve to uninvert (which isn’t a real word but will get used a lot). The difference between the 10-year Treasury note yield and the 2-year Treasury note yield is about to turn positive, the 2-year note yield recently falling a bit more rapidly than the 10-year.
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Market Morsel: SLOOSing
The Senior Loan Officer Survey came out yesterday and I’m sure you’ve been waiting on pins and needles, as I have, to see the results. Okay, maybe you had better things to do. I sure hope so because it isn’t exactly riveting.
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Q3 Cyclical Outlook
Growth peaked on a quarter over quarter seasonally adjusted annual rate in Q3 last year at 4.9%. The preferred reading is on an annual basis where growth peaked in Q4 of last year at 3.13%. Growth in Q1 was 2.88% and growth in Q2 has risen some and is trending at right about 3%.
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Weekly Market Pulse: Are Higher Interest Rates Good For The Economy?
Interest rates surged last week on the back of a hotter-than-expected inflation report that wasn’t actually that bad (see below). Not that my – or your – opinion about these things matters all that much to the market.
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Weekly Market Pulse: Happy Days Are Here Again!
Your cares and troubles are gone
There’ll be no more from now on!
Happy days are here again!
The skies above are clear again
Let us sing a song of cheer again
Happy days are here again!
Lyrics: Jack Yellen, Music: Milton Ager
That’s certainly how it’s felt since the turn of the new year with the NASDAQ up nearly 15%, European stocks continuing to recover, emerging markets anticipating a Chinese recovery and a solid January for the S&P...
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Weekly Market Pulse: First, Kill All The Speculators
The Fed meets this week and is widely expected to raise the Fed Funds rate by 0.25% to a range of 4.5% – 4.75%. The market has factored in a small probability that they do nothing and leave rates alone, but they’ll probably do what’s expected because they’ve spent the last couple of months preparing the markets for exactly this outcome.
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Weekly Market Pulse: A Fatal Conceit
Inflation* in the US is falling rapidly with the CPI rising just 0.9% in the second half of 2022 versus 5.4% in the first six months. Existing home sales are down 14.6% in the last 3 months and 34% over the last year. Housing starts are down 22% and permits are down 30% year-over-year. Orders for durable goods are down 1.2%, exports are down 3.8%, and imports are down 4.3% over the last 3 months.
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Weekly Market Pulse: The Consensus Will Be Wrong
What’s your outlook for this year? I’ve heard that question repeatedly over the last month and if you’re reading this hoping I’ll let you have a peak at my crystal ball, you’re going to be disappointed. Because I don’t have a crystal ball and neither, I hasten to add, does anyone else in this business.
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Weekly Market Pulse: Happy Holidays
We received a host of economics reports this past week; some good, others not so much. The week started with the Consumer Price Index report coming in better than expected at an increase of just 0.1% from the previous month (7.1% from a year ago), compared with respective estimates of 0.3% and 7.3%.
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Weekly Market Pulse: Good News, Bad News
One thing I can tell you for certain about last week’s big rally on Thursday and Friday: there were a lot of people who desperately wanted a good excuse to buy stocks. And buy they did after a better-than-expected CPI report Thursday morning, pushing the S&P 500 up nearly 6% on the week with all of that coming on Thursday and Friday.
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Powell’s Epiphany: There is No Free Lunch p2 Neutralizing the Money is Inflationary
Pandemic Wealth Effect. The top 1% of the US made about $14T or $4.2M per person. The next 19% made about $20T or $318,000 per person. The next 30% made about $5T or $50,000 per person. The bottom 50% made about $1T or $6,000 per person. The resulting inflation is at a 40yr high and Powell wants the money back.
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SPECIAL REPORT: Follow The Money Series – Dawn Of A New Era
With inflation recently hitting a high not seen since 1981, it is now apparent that the factors that drove the disinflation trend of the last four decades are coming to an end. Globalization and demographics, the two big factors that combined to hold down prices and wages for so long, are reversing, and so too is the downtrend in prices, wages, and interest rates.
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Weekly Market Pulse: Did Powell Just Blink?
Did Jerome Powell blink last Friday? It was just before the market open Friday and interest rates were jumping higher, as they had all week. The 10-year Treasury yield was up to 4.33%, another 11 basis points higher than the previous close and 32 basis points higher than the previous week’s close.
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Market Currents: Fed Confusion
The Federal Reserve seems confused about its role in inflation and unemployment. Alhambra’s Steve Brennan and Joe Calhoun discuss it.
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Weekly Market Pulse: Just A Little Volatility
Markets were rather volatile last week. That’s a wild understatement and what passes for sarcasm in the investment business. Stocks started the week waiting with bated (baited?) breath for the inflation reports of the week. It isn’t surprising that the market is focused firmly on the rear view mirror for clues about the future since Jerome Powell has made it plain that is his plan, goofy as it is.
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Weekly Market Pulse: The Real Reason The Fed Should Pause
The Federal Reserve has been on a mission lately to make sure everyone knows they are serious about killing the inflation they created. Over the last two weeks, Federal Reserve officials delivered 37 speeches, all of the speakers competing to see who could be the most hawkish.
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Weekly Market Pulse (VIDEO)
Are investors at the point of maximum pessimism? Alhambra CEO Joe Calhoun talks about a horrible 3rd quarter, sentiment, and where investors can look right now.
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Market Currents: Impact of Fed Tightening on Home Prices
What impact does Fed tightening really have on home prices? Doug Terry, Alhambra’s Head of Investment Research, explains.
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Market Currents – Is The Economy Contracting?
Is the economy contracting? Alhambra’s Steve Brennan poses that question to CEO Joe Calhoun.
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Weekly Market Pulse: No News Is…
Nothing happened last week. Stocks and bonds and commodities continued to trade and move around in price but there was no news to which those movements could be attributed. The economic news was a trifle and what there was told us exactly nothing new about the economy.
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