Tag Archive: Economics

The Fed’s “Transitory” Mistake Is Affecting Its Outlook

2025-06-27

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2025-06-27

In 2023 and 2024, the Fed was under intense public and media scrutiny for calling the post-pandemic surge in inflation “transitory.” Critics argued that the Fed's failure to anticipate the persistence and severity of rising prices undermined its credibility. Yet, with the benefit of hindsight and historical context, the Fed's position wasn't entirely misguided. Inflation …

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The Dollar’s Death Is Greatly Exaggerated

2025-06-20

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2025-06-20

The narrative surrounding the "dollar's death" as the world's reserve currency has been on the rise recently. However, this happens whenever the dollar declines relative to other currencies. We previously wrote about the false claims of the "dollar's death" in 2023 (see here, here, and here). The recent decline in the dollar relative to other currencies is well within historical norms.

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The Deficit Narrative May Find Its Cure In Artificial Intelligence

2025-06-13

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2025-06-13

Lately, the "deficit narrative" has dominated much of the financial media, particularly those channels that are continual "purveyors of doom." In this post, we will discuss the "deficit narrative," the likely outcomes, and why the cure for the deficit may be found in Artificial Intelligence. The "deficit narrative" has dominated the media lately as President …

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A Politically Incorrect “Where Are We Now?”

2025-06-09

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2025-06-09

A few days ago, I had the great pleasure to sit down again with my good friend James Patrick in person, in Monte Brè. It was a truly spontaneous and unfiltered conversation about the current state of the world, the bizarre geopolitical situation and the tragicomical moment in history that we find ourselves in. We talked about the extreme, and likely unprecedented, risks we face in the global economic and financial system and I’m very glad we...

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Ray Dalio Is Predicting A Financial Crisis…Again.

2025-05-30

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2025-05-30

Ray Dalio, the former head of Bridgewater Associates, is back in the media, trying to stay relevant by claiming the "deficit has become critical." " “It’s like ... I’m a doctor, and I’m looking at the patient, and I’ve said, you’re having this accumulation, and I can tell you that this is very, very serious, and …

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The Great Taking!

2025-05-29

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2025-05-29

Interview with James Patrick, TheGreatTakingReport.com As many of my clients, friends and regular readers know well, I’ve spent the better part of the last decade criticizing all the great evils and trespasses of the State and its crony capitalist accomplices. I’ve written extensive analyses and gave many speeches warning fellow citizens about the dangers that lie in government power grabs and authoritarian transgressions. The most important of...

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Moody’s Debt Downgrade – Does It Matter?

2025-05-19

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2025-05-19

This morning, markets are reacting to Moody's rating downgrade of U.S. debt. For those promoting egregious amounts of "bear porn," this is nirvana for fear-mongering headlines that gain clicks and views. However, as investors, we need to step back and examine the history of previous debt downgrades and their outcomes for both the stock and …

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Employment Data Confirms Economy Is Slowing

2025-05-09

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2025-05-09

While coming in much stronger than expected, the latest employment data confirmed what we already suspected: the economy is slowing. The reason the employment data is so important is that without employment growth, the economy stalls. It takes, on average, […] The post Employment Data Confirms Economy Is Slowing appeared first on RIA.

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The Reece Committee: Lessons from history  

2025-04-29

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2025-04-29

In the early 1950s, against the backdrop of the Cold War and growing concerns over potential clandestine efforts at internal subversion, the United States Congress launched an investigation into the activities of major tax-exempt foundations. Thus the Reece Committee was born, spearheaded by Congressman B. Carroll Reece, with the aim of establishing whether certain large and influential foundations, like the Carnegie Endowment, the Ford Foundation,...

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Inflation Risk Is Subsiding Rapidly

2025-04-18

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2025-04-18

Inflation risk has been a significant topic of discussion in the mainstream media for the last few years. Such is unsurprising given that inflation spiked following the pandemic in 2020 as consumer spending (demand) was shot into overdrive from stimulus payments and production (supply) was shuttered. To understand why that occurred, we need to revisit …

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The Consumer Is Tapping Out

2025-04-11

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2025-04-11

The recent implementation of tariffs has the media buzzing about increased recession odds as the consumer faces potentially higher costs. While recent economic reports, like the latest employment report, still show robust growth, those data points run with a lag that hasn't yet caught up with reality. As we have discussed, the American consumer is …

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Silver: A rare buying opportunity

2025-04-07

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2025-04-07

The gold price recently surged to unprecedented levels, surpassing the $3,000 per ounce milestone. This remarkable surge has been attributed to escalating geopolitical tensions, the revival of the trade wars, mounting inflation concerns, and of course, a very uncertain and very worrying outlook for the global economy and for the markets. As they always do, investors have once again flocked to the safe haven that gold unmistakably provides, pushing...

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The Stock Market Warning Of A Recession?

2025-04-04

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2025-04-04

A Wall Street axiom states that the stock markets lead the economy by about six months. While not a perfect predictor, the stock market reacts to investor expectations about future corporate earnings, economic activity, interest rates, and inflation. When sentiment shifts due to anticipated weakness in any of these areas, equity prices often decline, reflecting …

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“Does The West Have Any Hope? What Can We All Do?”

2025-02-24

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2025-02-24

Share this article Interview with Godfrey Bloom I recently had the great pleasure of being interviewed by my good friend Godfrey Bloom, whose point of view and sharp assessment skills of economic and political events I have consistently found illuminating throughout the years.  It’s always extremely refreshing talking to Godfrey, because his questions cut through the noise and concentrate on what is actually important. I find his views and...

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“Does The West Have Any Hope? What Can We All Do?”

2025-02-24

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2025-02-24

Interview with Godfrey Bloom I recently had the great pleasure of being interviewed by my good friend Godfrey Bloom, whose point of view and sharp assessment skills of economic and political events I have consistently found illuminating throughout the years.  It’s always extremely refreshing talking to Godfrey, because his questions cut through the noise and concentrate on what is actually important. I find his views and arguments are also...

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Predictions vs. Convictions

2025-01-31

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2025-01-31

Share this article Separating the signal from the noise Most regular readers and friends will undoubtedly already know what my position is in regards to projections and forecasts. For many years, I have consistently maintained that any and all attempts to “time the market” are as useless as they are unrealistic and I have always urged all responsible and rational investors to be extremely wary and suspicious of anyone that claims they can...

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Predictions vs. Convictions

2025-01-31

by

2025-01-31

Separating the signal from the noise Most regular readers and friends will undoubtedly already know what my position is in regards to projections and forecasts. For many years, I have consistently maintained that any and all attempts to “time the market” are as useless as they are unrealistic and I have always urged all responsible and rational investors to be extremely wary and suspicious of anyone that claims they can accurately predict market...

Read More »

Do Money Supply, Deficit And QE Create Inflation?

2025-01-24

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2025-01-24

I recently debated with Michael Pento, who made an interesting statement that increases in the money supply, the deficit, and a return to quantitative easing (QE) will lead to 1970s-style inflation. The recent experience of inflation in 2021 and 2022 would seem to justify such a view. However, is that historically the case, or was …

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Year in review: A tectonic shift has only just begun

2024-12-31

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2024-12-31

As we’re approaching the final hours of 2024, it is a good time to take a step back and remember what this year taught us. History might not repeat itself, but it does rhyme, as the saying goes, and the past is always the best teacher to prepare us for the future. For many of our fellow humans, 2024 was yet another turbulent year, filled with terrible strife, war, death, pain and indescribable suffering. The two ongoing war fronts and the images...

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Year in review: A tectonic shift has only just begun

2024-12-31

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2024-12-31

Share this article As we’re approaching the final hours of 2024, it is a good time to take a step back and remember what this year taught us. History might not repeat itself, but it does rhyme, as the saying goes, and the past is always the best teacher to prepare us for the future. For many of our fellow humans, 2024 was yet another turbulent year, filled with terrible strife, war, death, pain and indescribable suffering. The two ongoing war...

Read More »