Tag Archive: ECB staff forecasts

ECB Preview: an end to net asset purchases

2018-12-10

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2018-12-10

ECB Staff Projections, September - December 2018
With the ECB’s asset purchases due to end this month and forward guidance set to remain unchanged, a focus at next week’s policy meeting will be staff forecasts for growth and inflation. At its Governing Council meeting next week, we expect the European Central Bank (ECB) to confirm that its asset purchases will cease at year’s end.

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A successful bank should be boring

2018-09-14

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2018-09-14

No changes to the ECB’s monetary stance and policy guidance mean we are holding to our forecasts for quantitative easing and rate hikes.The ECB made no change to its monetary stance and policy guidance at its 13 September meeting. The end of quantitative easing (QE) was confirmed for after December, following a final reduction in the pace of net asset purchases to EUR15bn per month in Q4 2018.Much of the focus was on the updated ECB staff...

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The ECB’s steady hand

2018-04-28

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2018-04-28

Another ECB meeting, another balanced message of confidence and prudence. Unsurprisingly, the statement mentioned the deterioration in the data flow since March, but our impression is that the ECB is largely brushing off concerns about a soft patch in the economy for the moment.

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ECB closer to the 2% inflation target than meets the eye

2017-12-21

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2017-12-21

During an uneventful ECB press conference on Thursday, attention centred on the new staff projections. The headline projections were in line with expectations, albeit slightly higher on GDP growth and lower on inflation. The key word was “confidence” - in a strong expansion leading to a “significant” reduction in economic slack, as well as in the ECB’s capacity to meet its mandate.

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ECB preview: close to target…by 2020

2017-12-17

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2017-12-17

ECB Staff Projections, Sep 2017
The ECB’s meeting on 14 December would be a non-event if it were not for two specific points to make clear before the Christmas break – the staff forecasts for inflation, and the not-so-constructive ambiguity on QE horizon. We expect no major surprise from the new staff projections, reflecting the ECB’s cautiously upbeat tone.

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