Tag Archive: Dow Jones

Trendline Broken: Similarities to 1929, 1987 and the Nikkei in 1990 Continue

In an article published in these pages in early March, I have discussed the similarities between the current chart pattern in the S&P 500 Index compared to the patterns that formed ahead of the crashes of 1929 and 1987, as well as the crash-like plunge in the Nikkei 225 Index in 1990. The following five similarities were decisive features of these crash patterns.

Read More »

US Stock Market: Conspicuous Similarities with 1929, 1987 and Japan in 1990

There are good reasons to suspect that the bull market in US equities has been stretched to the limit. These include inter alia: high fundamental valuation levels, as e.g. illustrated by the Shiller P/E ratio (a.k.a. “CAPE”/ cyclically adjusted P/E); rising interest rates; and the maturity of the advance. Near the end of a bull market cycle there is always the question of when a decline will begin, and above all, how large will it be.

Read More »

Global Asset Allocation Update: No Upside To Credit

There is no change to the risk budget this month. For the moderate risk investor, the allocation between risk assets and bonds is unchanged at 50/50. There are other changes to the portfolio though so please read on. As I write this the stock market is in the process of taking a dive (well if 1.4% is a “dive”) and one can’t help but wonder if the long awaited and anticipated correction is finally at hand.

Read More »

FX Daily, August 09: Sterling Slips to a Four-Week Low, EUR/CHF still trending up

In an otherwise uneventful foreign exchange market, sterling's slide for its fifth consecutive session is the highlight. It was pushed below $1.30 for the first time since July 12. Initial resistance for the North American session is seen near $1.3020, while the $1.2960 area corresponds to a minor retracement objective.

Read More »

FX Daily, July 29: Kuroda Hesitates, Yen Advances, Focus Turns to Europe and North America

Main events: Far Lower GDP Growth due to higher inflation and bigger trade deficit. Yen and Swissie advance and weaker dollar. Swiss economy remains on track based on the KOF economic barometer.

Read More »

Are Investors Idiots?

  Black-and-Blue Crash Alert Flag Let us  begin the week “on message.” The Diary is about money. Today, we’ll stick to the subject.  Old friend Mark Hulbert has done some research on the likelihood of a crash in the stock market.   Ye olde tattered C...

Read More »

What Can Gold Do for Our Money?

One of the chief virtues of a gold standard is that it serves as a restraint on the growth of money and credit. It makes runaway government deficit spending and major monetary catastrophes such as hyperinflation practically impossible.

Read More »