Tag Archive: Currency Movement

Asia and Europe Did Not Share North America’s Enthusiasm for the Dollar

2025-05-15

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2025-05-15

Overview: There has been little follow-through dollar buying today after its recovery in North America yesterday. The greenback is softer against most of the G10 currencies. The Antipodeans are lagging alongside the Norwegian krone, perhaps weighed down by the sharp drop in oil prices following President Trump's indication and a deal with Iran may be …

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Dollar Unwinds More of Monday’s Surge

2025-05-14

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2025-05-14

Overview: The US dollar is extending yesterday's pullback after Monday's sharp rally. Monday's rally had met or approached several technical targets, but the momentum and news stream, including the downgrading of US recession forecasts, the pushing out of the next Fed rate cut into Q4 seemed to favor further dollar gains. Against many pairs, the …

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Bullish Consolidation for the Dollar

2025-05-13

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2025-05-13

Overview:  The capital markets are continuing to digest the implications of the US-China 90-day cooling off period. There were dramatic moves yesterday, and with a few exceptions, a consolidative tone has emerged today. The domestic US political focus is shifting to the budget, while the May CPI is due today, and it is expected to …

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US-China Strike 90-Day Cooling Off Period: Dollar and Equities Rally, Bonds Slump

2025-05-12

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2025-05-12

Overview:  The US and China struck an agreement that would lower tariffs for a 90-day cooling off period. The US tariff on China falls to 30% from 145%, while China's tariff on the US falls to 10% from 125%. A new forum was established to allow recurring discussions on economics and trade. The dollar spiked …

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China Replaced US Demand. Will the US Replace Chinese Supply? Investors Hopeful of Sino-American De-Escalation

2025-05-09

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2025-05-09

Overview: After recovering impressively yesterday, the US dollar saw some follow-through buying initially but has reversed lower and is paring yesterday's gains against the G10 and most emerging market currencies. East Asian emerging market currencies that had surged have now traded lower for the past three sessions. The main talking point today is tomorrow's trade …

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Trade Deal with the US Fails to Buoy Sterling Ahead of the Bank of England Rate Cut

2025-05-08

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2025-05-08

Overview: A couple days away from the US-China talks, the two are sitting disputing who sought out the talks. Given the egos, the risk is that the talks are downgraded if not canceled. Expectations ought to be low in any event. On the other hand, the first US trade agreement is expected to be announced …

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US-China Trade Talks this Weekend Help Stabilize the Greenback ahead of FOMC

2025-05-07

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2025-05-07

Overview: There are five developments to note. First, the US and China will have initial trade talks this weekend in Switzerland. Second, the PBOC cut its key rate by 10 bp and cut reserve requirements by 0.5%. It also announced several other measures to boost lending/relending. Third, German factory orders were stronger than expected, perhaps …

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PBOC Returns and Helps Stabilize Local FX

2025-05-06

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2025-05-06

Overview: China's mainland markets re-opened after the extended holiday, and the by setting the dollar's reference rate little changed from its last fix helped inject a note of stability into the local Asian currencies. Indeed, most of them pulled back today, including the Taiwan dollar and the Malaysian ringgit. The yuan and yen are firmer. …

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US Dollar Remains Under Pressure, while Asia Pacific Currencies Lead the Charge

2025-05-05

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2025-05-05

Overview: The dollar has begun the new week under pressure, though many financial centers are closed today. The upside pressure on Asia Pacific currencies remains notable. The offshore yuan, the Taiwanese dollar, and Malaysian ringgit, the Japanese yen, and Australian dollar are among the strongest currencies today. The ostensible trigger is speculation of US semiconductor …

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China’s Feint Weighs on the Greenback Ahead of Today’s Employment Report

2025-05-02

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2025-05-02

Overview: Ideas that the US economy is not doing as poorly as many feared after the Q1 GDP contraction was dissected helped the dollar appear to confirm a bottoming pattern yesterday. However, indications that China is considering the US request for trade talks have bolstered risk-appetites today, ahead of the US jobs report and dragged …

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May Day: Dovish Hold by BOJ and Broadly Firmer Dollar

2025-05-01

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2025-05-01

Overview: The US dollar is mostly firmer in thin May Day turnover. The Japanese yen is the weakest of the G10 currencies following what is seen as a dovish hold by the Bank of Japan, which cut growth forecasts, shaved inflation projections, and delayed reaching its inflation target on a sustained basis. The market downgraded …

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Weak US Survey Data to Begin being Evident in Real Sector Reports

2025-04-30

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2025-04-30

Overview: The foreign exchange market is quiet. The dollar is mostly little changed against the G10 currencies, mostly in the ranges that have been carved in recent days. The dollar-bloc currencies are mostly flat to firmer. The others are softer, led by the yen's almost 0.5% loss and sterling's 0.35% decline. Among emerging market currencies, …

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US Dollar Comes Back a Little Firmer

2025-04-29

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2025-04-29

Overview: The US dollar has come back better bid today. It is firmer against all the G10 currencies. The proximate cause has been reports that as early as today, the 100th day of President Trump's second-term, he will announce another retreat pivot:  imported auto parts for vehicles made in the US may be waived or … Continue reading...

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Calm before the Storm?

2025-04-28

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2025-04-28

Overview: The US dollar is trading quietly in a mixed fashion, mostly confined to the ranges seen at the end of last week. This could prove to be a pivotal week. The weakness in the US survey data may become evident in the real sector data, with a dismal Q1 GDP reading that may show … Continue reading »

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Markets Remain Unsettled Despite the US Postponement of the Reciprocal Tariffs

2025-04-10

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2025-04-10

Overview: A couple of hours before the US announced a postponement in the reciprocal tariffs on everyone but China, President Trump sent social media message encouraging people to buy stocks. And the postponement sent US equities soaring, but it does not set right with many observers. In fact, the US hiked the tariff on China further, and the net result is that the average effective tariff in the US is now 24% rather than 27% as it would have been...

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Fragile Calm in the Capital Markets

2025-04-08

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2025-04-08

(traveling; no commentary tomorrow)Overview: The dramatic price action in throughout the capital markets after last week's US tariff announcements, China's retaliation, and yesterday's US threat of another 50% tariff on China has calmed today, in a nervous way. Indeed, the calm could be shattered by one comment or social media post by the US President. Japan pushed back against some of "facts" the US cited, like the tariff Japan puts on...

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Shades of Smoot-Hawley: Depression Feared

2025-04-07

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2025-04-07

Overview:  At the end of last week, there was much talk about Black Monday and today it is here. Various circuit breakers kicked in as stocks plummeted. The Nikkei 225 fell 7.8%, and while China's CSI 300 fell 7.05%, the index of mainland shares that trading in Hong Kong dropped 13.75%. The Hang Seng itself was down 13.2%. Europe's Stoxx 600 fell 5.1% before the weekend and is off another 5.8% today. US index futures settled on their lows before...

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Friday: Tariffs, US Jobs, Powell, and Melting Equities

2025-04-04

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2025-04-04

Overview:  There appear to be two-forces at work that has helped the US dollar recover. First, as the market continues to debate whether the reciprocal tariffs are a negotiating ploy and in this tug-of-war of sorts, President Trump's declaration that he is open to "phenomenal offers" plays into that view. Still, the fact that Israel got rid of all of its tariffs on the US and still was hit with a 17% levy is notable. Second, there may be...

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The Day After

2025-04-03

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2025-04-03

Overview: Little would one know from looking at the US economic outperformance and the record-high household net worth, but the US President said that global trade has “looted, pillaged, raped, and plundered” the US economy. Rather than some sophisticated analysis to measure trade and non-trade barriers as the President Trump suggested, the so-called "kind reciprocity," appears to be a simple function of US imports as a percentage of the...

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Liberation Day from the Multilateral World Our Parents, Grandparents, and Great Grandparents Created

2025-04-02

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2025-04-02

Overview:   The trepidation over today's US tariff announcement has been underscored by reports that even as late as yesterday, a final decision had not been made. Given the complexity of different tariff schedule formulations, and the desire to implement the new regime immediately seem to favor a simply across the board levy or maybe two categories, a high one and low one. In terms of allocation of power, Treasury Secretary Bessent and his...

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