Tag Archive: Cold War

FX Daily, May 21: Markets Pull Back after Flirting with Breakouts

Overview: New two and a half month highs in the S&P 500 yesterday failed to have much sway in the Asia Pacific region and Europe today as US-China tensions escalate and profit-taking set in. Perhaps it is a bit of "buy the rumor sell the fact" type of activity on the back of upticks in the preliminary PMI reading and hesitancy about pushing for what appeared to be breakouts.

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FX Weekly Preview: A Vicious Cycle Grips Markets

The capital markets are in their own doom loop. Poor data from Germany and China, coupled with the escalation of the US-China trade dispute and rising tensions in Hong Kong spur concerns about the risks of a global recession. Interest rates are driven lower, and curves flatten or go inverted, spurring more concern about the outlook. The problem is that it is not clear how this vicious cycle ends.

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Rare Earths may Provide Leverage

Many American observers argue that the trade imbalance gives the US an advantage in a trade war with China. The US enjoys escalation dominance in tariffs because Chinese imports of US goods are so much less than the US imports of Chinese goods.  However, the focus on quantities may be misleading.

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There at the Beginning

Sometimes it is difficult to gain perspective. That is why it may be difficult to see the forest for the trees. It is as we spend most of our time climbing a mountain: One handhold and foothold at a time. Immediacy and urgency limit our peripheral and forward visions.

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The Future is Already Here–It is Just Not Evenly Distributed

When William Gibson would say that "the future is already here-it is just not evenly distributed," he was referring to how wealth and location determine one's access to technological advances (the future). Yet it equally can apply to the US-Chinese relationship.

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