Tag Archive: Bank of Canada

Searching for Direction

2024-11-08

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2024-11-08

Overview: The capital markets have been choppy as pre-existing positioning meets new thoughts on the implications of a second Trump administration. The dollar has found better footing today after giving back a chunk of Wednesday's gains yesterday. The yen is an exception, but it is not exception that the dollar trades heavier against the yen as the US 10-year yield drifts lower. On the week, the most G10 currencies are holding on to gains against...

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US Job Report may Offer Little Relief ahead of Next Week’s US Election and Meetings by Half of the G10 Central Banks

2024-11-01

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2024-11-01

Overview: The first of what promises to be two tumultuous weeks is winding down. The US jobs data is the last big event. It is widely recognized that it will be skewed to the downside because of hurricanes and some mostly temporary factors. Anticipating the market’s reaction is also complicated by the weekend, and reports that Iran may strike back at Israel (through bases in Iraq?), and next Tuesday's US election, and five G10 central bank meetings...

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FX Becalmed Ahead of the Weekend and Next Week’s Big Events

2024-10-25

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2024-10-25

Overview: The dollar is trading quietly, with a slightly firmer today. There has been little follow-through selling after yesterday's setback. The Canadian dollar and sterling are faring best. The yen is a little softer after Tokyo's CPI came in lower as expected due to the government's energy subsidy. The election for the lower house of the Diet is held Sunday. Emerging market currencies are also mostly softer. The JP Morgan Emerging Market...

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Turn Around Tuesday Comes Late

2024-10-24

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2024-10-24

Overview:  It is ironic that a few months ago, many wanted to sell the dollar because the Republican president and vice president candidates said they wanted a weaker dollar. With the election drawing near and the race very tight, there has been a surge in the betting markets of a Trump-Vance victory, and this has corresponded with the dollar's dramatic rise. US rates held on the lion's share of their gains despite the sharpest loss in the S&P...

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Greenback Consolidates

2024-10-22

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2024-10-22

Overview:  US interest rates remain firm and the dollar is mostly consolidating against the G10 currencies, in a muted "Turn Around Tuesday." The greenback is straddling the JPY151 area, its best level since the end of July. Despite bearish price action yesterday, the euro, sterling, and Australian dollar have seen limited follow-through selling and modest …

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The Dollar and Gold Firm

2024-10-21

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2024-10-21

Overview: The US dollar is firm to start the new week. The Japanese yen and Australian dollar are the heaviest with in the G10 (~0.30%). The euro and sterling are trading heavier but inside the pre-weekend range. The market anticipates the Bank of Canada to deliver a 50 bp rate cut in the middle of the week, and the Canadian dollar is threatening to extend its losses for the fourth consecutive week. China's prime lending rates were cut by 25 bp,...

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Soft US Headline CPI is Unlikely to Be Sufficient to Reanimate Expectations of another Large Fed Cut

2024-10-10

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2024-10-10

Overview: The US dollar is mostly softer ahead of the September CPI. The euro and Canadian dollar have recorded new lows for the move. The greenback extended its gains against the yen to JPY149.55 but has fallen to new session lows in the European morning near JPY148.85. Given the pushback against Fed Chair Powell's 50 bp cut last month revealed in the FOMC minutes, it will take more than a soft headline CPI today to renew speculation of another...

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Stocks Higher, Dollar Lower: Post-Fed

2024-09-19

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2024-09-19

Overview: The Federal Reserve's 50 bp rate cut has made for a volatile 15 hours or so in the foreign exchange market. As North American traders return to their posts, the greenback is heavy. They will find that only the yen and Russian ruble are softer. Norway delivered a hawkish hold, and the krone leads the G10 currencies with more than a 1% gain. Australia's employment data was sufficiently strong that the Reserve Bank of Australia will likely...

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Risk of 50 bp cut by the Fed Tomorrow Keeps the Greenback on the Defensive

2024-09-17

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2024-09-17

With heightened expectations of a 50 bp cut by the Federal Reserve tomorrow, the dollar has not gotten a reprieve and is softer against nearly all the currencies. Japan's long holiday weekend ended, and the greenback has held above JPY140 today.

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Greenback Continues to Trade Heavily amid Heightened Speculation of a 50 bp Cut Wednesday

2024-09-16

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2024-09-16

Overview: The markets are continuing to be impacted by the possibility that Fed officials planted a press report to put 50 bp cut back on the table after the market had moved away from it after the recent jobs data and CPI. In the Fed funds futures, there is around an 80% of a half-point move on Wednesday discounted and about an 80% chance of a second 50 bp cut this year. This has taken a toll on the greenback and cut short the technical correction...

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Disappointing US Data Followed by Better Japanese Wages and Stronger German Factory Orders Weigh on the Greenback

2024-09-05

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2024-09-05

Overview: The one-two punch of the disappointing US job opening report and the downbeat Beige Book weighs on the US dollar, which is softer against all the G10 currencies. The Canadian dollar is a notable exception. Prime Minister Trudeau's minority Liberal Party lost key support and the Bank of Canada affirmed expectations for more rate cuts. Japan's wage growth was stronger than expected, underscoring the divergence of policy and the dollar was...

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Dollar Consolidates as Stocks Melt

2024-09-04

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2024-09-04

Overview: The sharp losses in global equities are dominating today's market developments. Yesterday's 2.1% loss of the S&P 500 and 3.25% drop in the Nasdaq were the largest since carry-trade unwind climaxed on August 5. They have fallen more today and are poised to gap lower at the opening. Asia Pacific shares tumbled, led by Taiwan's 4.5% tumble and the Nikkei's 4.25% loss. It delivered Indian stocks its first loss in nearly three weeks....

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USD Remains Soft but Consolidation is Threatened

2024-08-20

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2024-08-20

Overview: The US dollar's recent retreat has been marginally extended today but it seems to be moderating. Still, the greenback is on the defensive, arguably ahead of tomorrow's BLS annual revisions of nonfarm payrolls, where there is talk that April 2023-March 2024 job growth could be slashed from 2.9 mln to 1.9 mln. And that is ahead of Friday's Jackson Hole address by Fed Chief Powell that is expected to be the strongest confirmation of a rate...

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Greenback and Yen Extend Gains

2024-07-24

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2024-07-24

Overview: The dollar's gains have been extended today, but in the risk-off mode, and unwinding of carry positions, the Japanese yen and Swiss franc are firmer.  the dollar has stabilized in late European morning turnover. The Bank of Canada is widely expected to cut rates today and the greenback is pushing against CAD1.38, which it has not traded above for three-months. The US dollar gains, which we anticipated, are coming despite interest rates...

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Short Covering Squeezes the Yen Higher

2024-07-23

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2024-07-23

The US dollar is firmer against all the G10 currencies but the Japanese yen. Local reports and the price action are consistent with short covering of the previously sold yen positions ostensibly ahead of next week's BOJ and FOMC meetings. Still, the greenback is holding above last week's low, slightly below JPY155.40.

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Dollar Mixed as Markets Digest US Political Developments

2024-07-22

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2024-07-22

Overview: News that President Biden will not seek re-election has left investors unsure of the next step, but PredictIt.org still points to a Trump advantage of slightly better than 60-40. It is not clear yet whether Vice-President Harris will be challenged for the nomination. The dollar is mixed against the G10 currencies, with the dollar bloc and Norway weaker. The yen is up around 0.45% to lead the others higher. The Swiss franc, euro and...

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Dollar Consolidates to Start the New Week

2024-07-15

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2024-07-15

Overview: The assassination attempt on former President Trump has injected a new dynamic as his chances of being re-elected appear to have risen. There are a few trades that seem to benefit from a second term:  steepening yield curve, weaker Mexican peso, and stronger crypto. The dollar initially strengthened as the market's initially responded, while Tokyo markets were closed for Marine Day. As North American activity is about to begin, the dollar...

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Euro Sold After EU Parliament Elections and Macron’s Gambit

2024-06-10

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2024-06-10

Overview:  With mixed elements, the market took the US jobs data as relatively strong and took the dollar and US rates higher. The EU Parliament election has shaken up European politics, with the Belgium government collapsing and French President Macron calling a snap legislative election for the end of the month. Holidays in China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Australia made for thinner Asia Pacific trading, but the euro was sold and has reached to...

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The Euro Remains Firm Ahead of the First Time the ECB will Cut Rates Before the Federal Reserve

2024-06-06

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2024-06-06

Overview: The dollar is mostly softer today, ahead of tomorrow's employment report. The ECB meeting and President Lagarde's press conference are main events today. There is little doubt that it will cut rates today and do so ahead of the Federal Reserve for the first time. The ECB's forward guidance may be the key to the market's reaction. That said, the euro is in the upper end of its recent range, near $1.09. The Mexican peso, which was crushed...

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Yen Unwinds Yesterday’s Gains, while the Mexican Peso and Indian Rupee Stabilize

2024-06-05

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2024-06-05

Overview: The foreign exchange market is calmer today than Monday and Tuesday, and the dollar is mixed. The yen, which rallied, yesterday, has given back most of its gains and the wage data gave the market second thoughts about next week's BOJ meeting. The Mexican peso, which has been sold aggressively in the face of the strong election showing of the Morena party and allies, is the strongest currency today, though the greenback is holding above...

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