Tag Archive: Australia

Dollar Jumps

2024-02-28

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2024-02-28

Overview: A less hawkish Reserve Bank of New Zealand and a slightly softer than expected January CPI from Australia appears to have sparked a broad US dollar rally.

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While the Greenback has Tended to be Sold in Asia this Week, it has Recovered in North America

2024-02-23

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2024-02-23

Overview: Amid a light news stream, the dollar is mostly in narrow ranges against the G10 currencies. Leaving aside the Norwegian krone, the others in a +/- 0.15% against the dollar today. We note that the technical tone of the euro and sterling have improved withe the five-day moving averages crossing above the 20-day moving averages. On the other hand, the dollar is approaching the year's low set last week near JPY150.90. Emerging market...

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Risk On, Dollar Sold

2024-02-22

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2024-02-22

Overview: The post-close rally in US tech stocks after Nvidia's earnings has fueled risk-on activity today. The Nikkei closed at record highs with a 2.2% rally. China's CSI rose for the eighth consecutive session as official discourage sales at the open and close, and short sales in general. Europe's Stoxx 600 is up more than 0.5% to recoup the small losses seen in the last two sessions. US indices are poised to gap higher at the open. Benchmark...

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China’s CSI 300 Rises for Seventh Consecutive Session and Offshore Yuan Strengthens for the Sixth Session

2024-02-21

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2024-02-21

Overview: The dollar is trading quietly after being sold yesterday. It is still soft against the dollar bloc and the Swiss franc but is firmer against the other G10 currencies. Narrow ranges have dominated. Emerging market currencies are mixed, with central European currencies and the Taiwan dollar trading softer. The offshore Chinese yuan is firmer for the sixth consecutive session. The highlights of today's North American session features minutes...

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Divergence Highlighted by Back-to-Back Quarterly Contractions in Japan and the UK but Little FX Reaction

2024-02-15

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2024-02-15

Overview: There has been a string of disappointing economic news today. Japan's economy surprisingly contracted in Q4 23 and the Q3 contraction was a little deeper than initially estimates. Australia's jobs growth was weaker than expected and unemployment rose to 4.1%, matching the highest since November 2021.

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Japanese Officials Weigh-In and Help Yen Stabilize, while Euro and Sterling Extend Losses

2024-02-14

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2024-02-14

Overview: The market's reaction to the firmer than expected January CPI seems exaggerated. We do not think it was the game-changer for the Federal Reserve that the market seemed to think. The dollar was driven higher, and it is stabilizing today, though the euro and sterling extended their losses, most of the other G10 currencies did not. After the yen's six-week slide did not elicit a response from Japanese officials, yesterday's drop did, and...

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Sterling Buoyed by Labor Market Report Ahead of US CPI

2024-02-13

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2024-02-13

Overview: The US dollar is enjoying a mostly firmer bias ahead of today's CPI report. Sterling is the strongest among the G10 currencies after a more resilient than expected labor market report. The dollar extended its gains against the Japanese yen to a new high since last November, but the market seems cautious as it approaches JPY150, where large options expire today. On the other hand, emerging market currencies are mostly faring better. The...

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The US Dollar and Rates Rise Further

2024-02-05

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2024-02-05

Overview: The US dollar and interest rates have continued to rise after the strong employment report before the weekend helped drive home the Fed's message at last week's FOMC meeting. The greenback has been bid to new highs for the year against the G10 currencies but the Canadian dollar. The dollar also rose to a marginal new high for the year against the Chinese yuan. Interest rates are jumping, and the market has downgraded the chances of a May...

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The Euro and Australian Dollar Take Out January Lows to Start the New Month

2024-02-01

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2024-02-01

Overview:  Federal Reserve Chair push against speculation of a March rate cut as explicitly as could be imagined at yesterday's press conference lifted the dollar, while weighing on stocks. US regional banks sold off sharply yesterday, and challenges emanating from US real estate adversely impacted a Japan's Aozora Bank and Deutsche Bank quadrupled its loss provisions for such exposure. The greenback remains bid. The euro and Australian dollar have...

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US Tech Sell-Off Challenges Risk Appetites Ahead of the FOMC

2024-01-31

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2024-01-31

Overview: Ahead of the US Treasury's quarterly refunding announcement and the outcome of the FOMC meeting, the dollar is trading higher against all the G10 currencies. With US high-flying tech stocks posting steep losses after disappointing earnings reports, the currencies most sensitive to risk-appetites, the dollar bloc and the Norwegian krone are the weakest. Emerging market currencies are mixed. The South African rand, Philippine peso, and...

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EMU Q4 23 GDP Stagnates, Underscoring Divergence with the US

2024-01-30

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2024-01-30

Overview: The US dollar is mixed ahead of the start of the FOMC meeting and is mostly in its recent ranges. The euro, which was sold below $1.08 yesterday for the first time since mid-December is holding above it today. The less-than-expected projection of US Treasury borrowing requirements for Q1 and Q2 weighed on US rates, which, in turn, dragged the greenback lower against the yen. It is trading near a four-day low, a little above JPY147.00. The...

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PBOC Cuts Reserve Requirements, but USD Pullback may offer New Buying Opportunity in North America

2024-01-24

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2024-01-24

Overview: After a strong showing yesterday, the dollar was sold in Asia and Europe. China announced a cut in reserve requirements and took more informal action to support the stock market, which encouraged risk-taking. Yet, the dollar's decline has stretched intraday momentum indicators, which may provide early operators in North America a new dollar buying opportunity. The ECB and Norway's central banks meet tomorrow, and the US reports its first...

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Dollar Rally Pauses, but Fuel from Interest Rate Adjustment may not be Complete

2024-01-18

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2024-01-18

Overview: This week's dollar surge is consolidating today. Interest rates have steadied, but the adjustment, which involves pushing the first rate from March toward June does not appear complete. This suggests the dollar's recovery from last November-December's sell-off may not be complete either. Today, though, it is a little firmer against all the G10 currencies but the Swiss franc. Most emerging market currencies are also trading with a slightly...

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Can the US CPI Break the Dollar out of its Consolidation?

2024-01-11

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2024-01-11

Overview: Stocks and bonds are trading higher, and the dollar is narrowly mixed ahead of the December US CPI report. Most of the large bourses in Asia Pacific advanced, led by Japan to new 30-year-plus highs. Hong Kong's Hang Seng snapped seven-day slide to post its first gain of 2024. Europe's Stoxx 600 is up about 0.33%, to recoup most of its losses in the past two sessions. US index futures enjoy a modest upside bias. Benchmark 10-year yields in...

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Don’t be Burned in the Churn

2024-01-10

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2024-01-10

Overview: The broad consolidation in the dollar after the gyrations at the end of last week continues, and within it the greenback is a bit softer today. Among the G10 currencies, only the yen is failing to post gains. Most emerging market currencies, led by central Europe, are also firmer today. A notable exception is a handful of Asian currencies, include the South Korean won, Taiwanese dollar, and the Philippine peso. The market's focus is on...

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The Dollar Goes Nowhere Quickly

2024-01-09

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2024-01-09

Overview: The dollar continues to consolidate broadly after the dramatic price swings at the end of last week. For the most part, the greenback remains inside yesterday's ranges, which were inside last Friday's. The G10 currencies are a little heavier today, except the Japanese yen and Norwegian krone, which are posting small gains. Indeed, the greenback is near session highs against most of the major currencies as we go to print. Emerging market...

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Consolidative Tone Emerges Ahead of Tomorrow’s US Jobs and EMU CPI

2024-01-04

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2024-01-04

Overview: After gaining for the past couple of sessions to open the New Year, the dollar is mostly softer today. The yen is the main exception. The greenback was bid above the JPY144 area where chunky options expire today. Most emerging market currencies are also firmer though there are a few exceptions in Asia, like the South Korean won and Thai baht. Still, the general tone is consolidative ahead of tomorrow US jobs data and the eurozone's CPI....

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Fed to Express More Confidence that Policy is Sufficiently Restrictive Despite the Easing of Financial Conditions

2023-12-13

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2023-12-13

Commentary will resume with a 2024 outlook on December 29. Overview: The dollar is trading with a firmer bias today ahead of the outcome of the FOMC meeting. Standing pat for two meetings was framed as a pause, but given the decline in price pressures, being unchanged for a third meeting is understood as the end of the historically aggressive tightening cycle. Fed Chair Powell is expected to express greater confidence that policy is sufficiently...

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Markets Catch Collective Breath

2023-12-06

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2023-12-06

Overview: The US dollar is mixed today. The dollar-bloc currencies are firmer, while the euro and yen are softer. We had anticipated a recovery of the dollar on ideas that the market has too aggressively pushed down US rates, and pricing in more Fed easing with higher confidence than seems to be warranted by the recent data.  However, US rates have not recovered, but the dollar has.  Partly, this reflects that rates have fallen as faster if not...

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Rates and the Dollar Come Back Firmer

2023-12-04

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2023-12-04

Overview: Weekend accounts seemed to try to understand what Fed Chair Powell said by beginning with the large drop in US rates. Yet, most accounts miss the fact that no matter what Powell has said, the market has more often than not reacted as if he were a dove. Rates have come back firmer today, perhaps as some recognized the overshoot. The US two-year yield is up nearly seven basis points after falling 14 before the weekend. The 10-year yield is...

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