Tag Archive: Australia

FX Daily, April 29: US GDP: The V

2021-04-29

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2021-04-29

Overview:  The market's initial reaction to the Federal Reserve statement and the press conference was that it was dovish: the 10-year yield slipped, and the dollar was sold to new lows.  In fact, the two countries that appear to be ahead of the curve among high-income countries, Canada and Norway, saw their currencies rally to new three-year highs.

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FX Daily, April 28: Biden and Powell are Center Stage

2021-04-28

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2021-04-28

Overview: It appears that the backing up of US yields is giving the dollar a better tone and challenging the Eurosystem, which has stepped up its bond purchases.  The US 10-year yield is around 1.65%, roughly a two-week high and back above the 20-day moving average. 

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FX Daily, March 30: US Yields Push Higher, Lifting the Greenback Especially Against the Euro and Yen

2021-03-30

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2021-03-30

The US 10-year yield is at new highs since January 2020, pressing above 1.77% and helping pull up global yields today.   European benchmarks yields are up 4-5 bp, and the Antipodean yields jump 8-9 bp.  The impact on equities has been minor, and the talk is still about the unwinding of Archegos Capital. 

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FX Daily, March 29: Markets Look for Direction after Large Block Trade and Before Key Data

2021-03-29

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2021-03-29

The large block trade (~$20 bln) before the weekend, apparently from a family office, continued to have ripple effects today, but the MSCI Asia Pacific Index barely noticed.  It extended its pre-weekend rally of 1.3%, and only South Korea and Australia fell among the major markets.

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FX Daily, March 16: Equities Firm, but Markets Tread Gingerly

2021-03-16

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2021-03-16

Overview: Yesterday's new record highs in the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial helped set the tone for today's advance in the Asia Pacific region and Europe. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index snapped a two-day decline, with other major markets rising today. 

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FX Daily, March 8: Greenback Trades Higher in Asia before Momentum Stalls in Europe

2021-03-08

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2021-03-08

Overview: The attack on Saudi Arabia's largest crude terminal reverberated through the capital markets, where sentiment was already fragile, despite the lack of disruption.   Brent rose to nearly $71.40, and April WTI to almost $68 extended their gains for the fourth consecutive session before being fully unwound.

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FX Daily, February 26: Fed Hike Ideas Give the Beleaguered Greenback Support

2021-02-26

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2021-02-26

A poor seven-year note auction and ideas that the first Fed hike can come as early as the end of next year spurred a steep sell-off in bonds and equities. Technical factors like the triggering of stops losses, large selling in the futures market, which some also link to hedging of mortgage exposure (convexity hedging), also play a role.

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FX Daily, February 22: Stocks Wilt under Pressure from Rising Yields

2021-02-22

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2021-02-22

Higher interest rates, driven by inflation expectations, is forcing an adjustment to equity markets.  The S&P 500 is poised to gap lower today following slides in the Asia Pacific region and Europe. Japanese and Taiwanese indices advanced by steep losses were seen in China, Hong Kong, and India.

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FX Daily, February 15: Sterling Continues to Run Higher and US Winter Storm Gives Oil Another Boost

2021-02-15

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2021-02-15

US and Greater Chinese markets are closed today, but the markets are moving. Equities are bid. The Nikkei led the Asia Pacific region with a 2% gain and pushed above 30000 for the first time since 1990.

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FX Daily, February 4: Negative Rates and the Bank of England: Having Your Cake and Eating it Too

2021-02-04

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2021-02-04

Overview:  The euro has been sold through $1.20 for the first time since December 1 and has now given back roughly half of the gains scored from the US election (~$1.16) to the early January high (~$.1.2350).  More broadly, the greenback is bid against most of the major currencies, with the Australian dollar more resilient after reported record iron ore exports and all but a handful of emerging market currencies. 

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FX Daily, January 27: The Fed and Earnings on Tap

2021-01-27

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2021-01-27

Overview:  Risk appetites seem subdued even if GameStop's surge draws attention. Asia Pacific equities mostly slipped lower, and profit-taking was seen in Hong Kong and Seoul, which are off to an incredibly strong start to the year. Small gains were reported in Tokyo, Beijing, and Taipei.

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FX Daily, January 22: Faltering Friday

2021-01-22

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2021-01-22

Fear that social restrictions may have to be broadened and extended is helping spur a wave of profit-taking and de-risking, which has also been encouraged by disappointingly high-frequency data. The equity rally seemed to falter a bit in the US, as the S&P 500 eked out a minor 0.03% gain yesterday.

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FX Daily, January 7: Dollar Bounces after Insurrection Put Down

2021-01-07

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2021-01-07

Overview:  After the National Guard were called to put down an insurrection in Washington, DC, the dollar is having its best day in around a week.  The euro's three-day rally has been halted even though German factory orders surprised on the upside. 

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FX Daily, December 17: Dollar Thumped

2020-12-17

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2020-12-17

Overview: The prospects of a UK-EU deal and US stimulus continue to underwrite risk appetites and weigh on the dollar.  Equity markets are moving higher.  Led by Australia and China, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose to new record highs, while Dow Jones Stoxx 600 in Europe is at its best level since February.

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FX Daily, December 15: The Bulls are Emboldened

2020-12-15

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2020-12-15

The S&P fell for the fourth consecutive session yesterday, the longest losing streak of the quarter, and this seemed to encourage profit-taking in the Asia Pacific region today.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slipped for the second consecutive session, and even confirmation of the Chinese recovery failed to lift the Shanghai Composite. 

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FX Daily, December 2: Euro Rally Stalls while Brexit Concerns Trip Sterling

2020-12-02

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2020-12-02

The selling pressure that drove the dollar lower yesterday has abated, and the greenback is paring yesterday's loss, though the dollar-bloc currencies are showing some resilience. EC negotiator Barnier briefed ministers that the same three issues that have bedeviled the trade talks with the UK remain unresolved (fisheries, level playing field, and a conflict resolution mechanism).

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FX Daily, November 27: Dollar Offered Ahead of the Weekend

2020-11-27

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2020-11-27

Equities are finishing the week on a firm tone, while the US dollar remains heavy.   In the Asia Pacific, only Australia and India did not end the week on a firm note.  The MSCI Asia Pacific completed its fourth consecutive weekly gain, for around a 13% gain. 

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FX Daily, November 5: The Dollar Slides and the Yuan Jumps

2020-11-05

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2020-11-05

Overview: The markets did not wait for the final vote count and took stocks and bonds higher while pushing the greenback lower. While it appears Biden will be the next US President, investors seemed to like the fact that his agenda will be checked by a Senate that may remain in Republican hands.  Stocks are on a tear. 

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FX Daily, November 3: Risk Appetites Return as the US Goes to the Polls

2020-11-03

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2020-11-03

More than 95 mln Americans voted before today, and many observers warn of a cliffhanger that could be decided in the courts. The polls sand surveys show strong odds in favor of a Democratic sweep. Looking at the capital markets, nothing looks amiss. 

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FX Daily, October 15: Markets Shake and Dollar Goes Bid

2020-10-15

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2020-10-15

A combination of the surging virus, threatening the slow recovery that was already losing momentum, the lack of new stimulus in the US, and market positioning is seeing risk unwind in a big way today.  Equities are selling off. 

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