Tag Archive: Alhambra Research

Market Currents: Fed Confusion

2022-10-20

by

2022-10-20

The Federal Reserve seems confused about its role in inflation and unemployment. Alhambra’s Steve Brennan and Joe Calhoun discuss it.

Read More »

Weekly Market Pulse: Just A Little Volatility

2022-10-17

by

2022-10-17

Markets were rather volatile last week. That’s a wild understatement and what passes for sarcasm in the investment business. Stocks started the week waiting with bated (baited?) breath for the inflation reports of the week. It isn’t surprising that the market is focused firmly on the rear view mirror for clues about the future since Jerome Powell has made it plain that is his plan, goofy as it is.

Read More »

Market Currents: Don’t Listen to Buy and Hold Investing Advice

2022-10-07

by

2022-10-07

For decades a Buy and Hold strategy was a staple of financial advice. But should it be? Alhambra CEO separates myth and reality.

Read More »

Weekly Market Pulse (VIDEO)

2022-10-04

by

2022-10-04

Are investors at the point of maximum pessimism? Alhambra CEO Joe Calhoun talks about a horrible 3rd quarter, sentiment, and where investors can look right now.

Read More »

Market Currents: Impact of Fed Tightening on Home Prices

2022-09-29

by

2022-09-29

What impact does Fed tightening really have on home prices? Doug Terry, Alhambra’s Head of Investment Research, explains.

Read More »

Market Currents: Banks are Keeping Oil Prices High

2022-09-28

by

2022-09-28

Who is really keeping oil prices high? Alhambra CEO Joe Calhoun says it’s the banks.

Read More »

Market Currents – Is The Economy Contracting?

2022-09-21

by

2022-09-21

Is the economy contracting? Alhambra’s Steve Brennan poses that question to CEO Joe Calhoun.

Read More »

Weekly Market Pulse: No News Is…

2022-09-12

by

2022-09-12

Nothing happened last week. Stocks and bonds and commodities continued to trade and move around in price but there was no news to which those movements could be attributed. The economic news was a trifle and what there was told us exactly nothing new about the economy.

Read More »

Weekly Market Pulse: The More Things Change…

2022-09-07

by

2022-09-07

I stopped in a local antique shop over the weekend. The owner is retiring and trying to clear out as much as she can before they close the doors so I paid a mere $3 for the Life magazine above. I think it might be worth many multiples of that price for investors who think our situation today is somehow uniquely bad. The cover headline could just as easily be describing today as 1970.

Read More »

Weekly Market Pulse (VIDEO)

2022-09-07

by

2022-09-07

Alhambra CEO Joe Calhoun compares the similarities between today’s bear market and past ones, plus last week’s data on the economy, employment, and whether the new data points to recession.

Read More »

Goldilocks Calling

2022-09-02

by

2022-09-02

Since the summer of 2020, my expectation for the US economy has been that once all the COVID distortions are gone, it would revert to its previous trend growth of around 2%. And that seems to be exactly what is going on with the economy right now.

Read More »

Weekly Market Pulse: The Dog That Didn’t Bark

2022-08-29

by

2022-08-29

Gregory (Scotland Yard detective): “Is there any other point to which you would wish to draw my attention?” Sherlock Holmes: “To the curious incident of the dog in the night-time.” Gregory: “The dog did nothing in the night-time.” Sherlock Holmes: “That was the curious incident.” From Silver Blaze by Arthur Conan Doyle, 1892

Read More »

Rate Hikes Are Working

2022-08-25

by

2022-08-25

New home sales were reported for July as down nearly 13% to 511K, a number that is just about the average since 2010 (543k). But that doesn’t tell the whole story obviously. New home sales have fallen sharply since December of last year, down 39%. The drop from the peak in August 2020 is even more dramatic, down nearly 51%.

Read More »

The Economy Improved In July

2022-08-22

by

2022-08-22

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index rose to 0.27 in July with all four categories of indicators rising. The 3 month average was unchanged at -0.09. That indicates growth is slightly below trend and is far from the recession threshold of -0.7.

Read More »

Weekly Market Pulse: Same As It Ever Was

2022-08-22

by

2022-08-22

History never repeats itself. Man always does. Mark Twain is credited with a similar saying, that history doesn’t repeat but it rhymes. Of course, there is scant evidence that Clemens said anything of the sort just as Voltaire may or may not have penned the quote above. But both men were much wittier than I – than most – so I’ll take them both as being representative if not genuine.

Read More »

Weekly Market Pulse: A Most Unusual Economy

2022-07-11

by

2022-07-11

The employment report released last Friday was better than expected but the response by bulls and bears alike was exactly as expected. Both found things in the report to support their preconceived notions about the state of the economy.

Read More »

Weekly Market Pulse: Things That Need To Happen

2022-07-05

by

2022-07-05

Perspective is something that comes with age I think. Certainly, as I’ve gotten older, my perspective on things has changed considerably. As we age, we tend to see things from a longer-term view.

Read More »

Weekly Market Pulse: Welcome Back To The Old Normal

2022-05-03

by

2022-05-03

Stagflation. It’s a word that strikes fear in the hearts of investors, one that evokes memories – for some of us – of bell bottoms, disco, and Jimmy Carter’s American malaise. The combination of weak growth and high inflation is the worst of all worlds, one that required a transformational leader and a cigar-chomping central banker to defeat the last time it came around.

Read More »

Weekly Market Pulse: Is This A Bear Market?

2022-03-16

by

2022-03-16

I don’t know the answer to the question posed in the title. No one does because the future is not predictable. I don’t know what will happen in Ukraine. I don’t know how much what has already happened there – and what might – matters to the US and global economy. I don’t know if the Fed is making a mistake by (likely) hiking interest rates by an entire 1/4 of 1% this week.

Read More »

Weekly Market Pulse: Oil Shock

2022-03-08

by

2022-03-08

Crude oil prices rose over 25% last week and as I sit down to write this evening the overnight futures are up another 8% to around $125. Almost every other commodity on the planet rose in prices last week too, as did the dollar. Those two factors – rising dollar and rising commodity prices – mean the likelihood of recession in the coming year has risen significantly in just the last week.

Read More »