Category Archive: 9a.) Real Investment Advice

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What Will Today’s FOMC Meeting Reveal?

2022-05-04

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(5/4/22) Today's FOMC meeting will reveal what Jerome Powell & Co really think about the economy, and how the Federal Reserve intends to address inflation: Corporate earnings are decent, but forward guidance is sucky. What we mean when we say we're "taking profits;" how to adjust your portfolio strategy for risk, and why cash is king. Don't confuse narratives for returns: Indexes paint a different view than what's really happening in...

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What Will the Fed Say Tomorrow? | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-05-03

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(5/3/22) The next Fed meeting is tomorrow, at which the FOMC is expected to hike rates 50-basis points, and reduce its balance sheet by $90-Billion starting in June. But what if they don't? What if the Fed says it's raising rates by 75-basis points, and issues a much more hawkish view on inflation? That's the risk markets are facing as they try to position ahead of the meeting. With markets so negatively biased, any news that matches expectations...

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Will Markets Rally Following the Fed Meeting?

2022-05-03

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(5/3/22) The FOMC meets tomorrow, and while many are anxiously awaiting the Fed's pronouncements on Thursday; in reality, markets may have already "baked-in" an expected 50-basis point rate hike and $90-B balance sheet taper to begin in June. Dragons are real; How Investors are positioning for the rest of the summer; YouTube influencers and the end of bad advice; S&P earnings estimates continue to climb, even as corporate forecasts...

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Why Now Would Be a Really Good Time to Rally | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-05-02

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(5/2/22) Markets are set to prove the April-to-May adage: Thunderstorms on Wall Street in April resulted in extremely negative investor sentiment. Markets are very over-sold, and positioning is very light--not surprising given market performance last month. Can markets go lower? Certainly. And we could see a bit of a short-term rally at this point, too, albeit with a lower high as the market continues to establish a down trend. We could also see a...

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Is a Bigger Bear Market Coming?

2022-05-02

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(5/2/22) Will April's showers bring a flowering to the markets in May? Comparing 2021 to now--is a bigger bear market coming? (Anything the Fed says next can tilt markets one way or the other.) The potential for a short-term rally is likely; use it to rebalance risk in portfolios. Wall Street's golden plateau is "buy & sell;" the velocity of news can destroy market caps overnight; Warren Buffett: "Markets are a Casino."...

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Living with Inflation and Negative GDP

2022-04-30

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(4/29/22) Turns out Inflation wasn't as "transitory" as some had hoped; the bigger question now is whether or not Inflation is structural. Ramifications of China's slowing economy. Robinhood has been "Friar Tucked." How to mitigate risk w life insurance; Housing Demographics & Affordability Index; buying vs renting; the "American Dream" vs homeownership reality. Coco the Robot; Retirement vs work: Distribution vs...

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Don’t Be Fooled by Facebook’s Rally | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-04-28

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(4/28/22) Facebook/Meta's report last night boasted increased users but diminished revenues, boosting its opening price to just about its 50-DMA. Despite the rally in the stock, there is still some concern: Over the past 9-months, Facebook has been down nearly 50% from its 52-week high. We're concerned whether this recent rally can stick. Why does this matter? Because Facebook is among those giant stocks in the NASDAQ which comprise 33% of the...

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Why Facebook/Meta’s Earnings Matter

2022-04-28

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(4/28/22) It's been a tough week for the markets; Facebook's earnings report showed lower revenues but heightened user counts; why a Facebook/Meta rally matters--and the opportunity it will afford investors. What the Atlanta Fed has in store in GDP report; how Russia will impact companies' forward guidance, effects on China. Inflation beginning to impact companies through reduced consumer spending: We're spending more to get the same or less. Why...

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Have Markets Bottomed, or More Losses to Go? | 3:00 on markets & Money

2022-04-27

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(4/27/22) Markets remain under pressure as earnings come in not as strong as expected. Markets retested March's low, but this morning futures are pointing higher. Markets remain over sold, so expect at least a small, short-term rally. This would be a good time to rebalance and adjust for risk. Google reported worse-than-expected earnings, breaking down below support. Google is very over-sold but allow the stock to recover as investors digest just...

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Have Great Expectations Turned to Pip Squeaks?

2022-04-27

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(4/27/22) Markets are still going nowhere, as bonds begin to emerge as investors' savior. We're looking for a short-term reflexive rally. The article MarketWatch likes so much, they ripped it off; Inflation, Title 42 vs COVID, and the appeal of Bonds; Elon Musk's purchasing power--how he acquired Twitter. Who pays the most in taxes? How Cathie Wood's AARK Investments sprung a leak; when things seem too good to be true, they are. Is Bitcoin a Fiat...

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Elon’s Poison Pill, Pt-2

2022-04-27

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(4/26/22) Elon Musk is bidding to buy Twitter, and the board decides it's not such a bad deal after all; did Elon over-pay? The Problem with taking Twitter private; the culture of Twitter, and how Elon can make money on it. Public reaction to the sale from Trump, Bezos; Chinese access to the towne square; who decides what's disinformation? Why Twitter never forgets; platforms that share opinions and confirmation bias. Why it's always important to...

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Is the Market Sell Off Over? | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-04-26

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(4/26/22) Markets followed-up Friday's losses by opening down on Monday and re-test lows from February and March, then bounced back up for a half-percent gain on the day. We've seen this kind of reflexive activity before, when markets are trolling along the bottoms...Markets remain over-sold, futures are weaker this morning, with more earnings reports to come today which might set the tone in Tech for tomorrow. Money flows are beginning to turn...

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Elon’s Poison Pill, Pt-1

2022-04-26

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(4/26/22) Elon Musk is bidding to buy Twitter, and the board decides it's not such a bad deal after all; did Elon over-pay? The Problem with taking Twitter private; the culture of Twitter, and how Elon can make money on it. Public reaction to the sale from Trump, Bezos; Chinese access to the towne square; who decides what's disinformation? Why Twitter never forgets; platforms that share opinions and confirmation bias. Why it's always important to...

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Where are the Opportunities in a Market Sell-off? | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-04-25

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DESCRIPTION: (4/25/22) Markets broke support of the consolidation range on Friday, leading to a sharp sell-off. Lower market futures this morning would indicate a re-test of March lows. While frustrating, markets remain over-sold, and we're looking for some kind of impetus for a counter-trend reflexive rally. Overall sentiment is very negative, and positioning by professional traders is also quite light, suggesting overall market psychology is very...

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Why You Should Buy What Everyone Hates

2022-04-25

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(4/25/22) Markets have essentially gone nowhere since the first of the year. Will Netflix' crackdown on password sharing backfire (after promoting the idea early on...)? Disney's Wokeness cost $34-B in earnings; Twitter now considering Musk's bid to buy. Markets have already had it rough--companies below the surface are struggling; Why Markets are under pressure; why monetary policy takes so long to be felt; why you should buy what everyone else is...

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The Good, The Bad, & The Ugly Secure Act 2.0

2022-04-22

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(4/22/22) Jerome Powell's comments on inflation and interest rates are taking on a harsher tone; have we reached "peak inflation?" How inflation is affecting financial planning and stock market performance; planning for future realities instead of past performances; why many are leaving retirement to return to work. Financial distress is here to stay. Food & Bacon, a preview of our next event; Secure Act for Retirement 2.0:...

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Lance’s Best Bets for Investing Today | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-04-21

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(4/21/22) The Major Cap companies' earnings reports are just part of the overall investing picture. The S&P is setting up to rally to previous highs, but because the Fed is about to start hiking rates, we're expecting continued pressure on equity prices. The NASDAQ is over-sold, like the S&P, but still trading below its 50-DMA. Tech stocks have been under more pressure, lately. A lift to the S&P will also drag the NASDAQ up, as well....

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The Invisible Market Crash

2022-04-21

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(4/21/22) Despite the positive headline news from big market players, there's been a literal market crash below the surface. Markets have essentially made no progress since last Fall, and valuations remain unreasonably high. Quantitative Tightening is The Next Thing. How demographics are affecting housing supply & demand dynamics. The effects & consequences of Quantitative Tightening; how to harness inflation with i-Bonds. Adventures with...

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Here’s What to Look for In Earnings Reports | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-04-20

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(4/20/22) A 2-million subscriber deficit for Netflix triggered a warning by the streaming service on Tuesday--the first such alarm for Netflix in a while. Interesting to notice how other streaming subscription services will report, as too many providers cannibalize one another's audiences. Stocks, however, are shaking off that bad news, with futures turning around this morning. The post-tax-day market behavior was as expected. Markets are in a good...

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Would You Rather Pay Tax Now or Later (when they’re higher)

2022-04-20

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(4/20/22) The Q1 Earnings Parade continues; the conundrum for Netflix, bundling vs a la carte--it's an issue of too many providers for a paucity of quality content. What's really important this earnings season is what companies will be saying about forward guidance. A 20% correction is not impossible. QE vs QT: Quantitative Easing did not cause inflation--"free" money from the Government did. You wanna avoid paying taxes, or make money?...

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