Category Archive: 9a) Buy and Hold

In the kind of market where bad news is good news, where do we go from here? The dark side of not allowing business cycle to complete: Recession = Bad; so the market has outrun the economy. Why the Medicare Advantage TV ads have disappeared;

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(9/1/22) Cheerleaders singing the praises of a bear market bottom, bullishness abounding, and high prices for equities were back...were wrong. Turns out it was a bear market rally, after an assault on the 200-DMA failed.

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(9/1/22) What would happen if markets break through the 50-DMA? We're treating any market rally as an opportunity to sell and reduce equity risk; parsing Jerome Powell's post-Jackson Hole comments; bringing pain to households and businesses, and the beginning of the Price-Wage spiral; will the Fed start to pay more attention to employment numbers?

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(8/31/22) Tuesday's Jolt Report showing stronger employment jerked markets to attention with the suggestion the Fed may become even more aggressive in its tightening strategy. However, a closer look at the employment scene reveals labor force participation rates are nothing to crow about.

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(8/31/22) Considering the Fed's Quantitative Tightening and what CEOs' confidence is saying about the economy; confidence on the wane as the economy weakens (which is the intent of the Fed); dire predictions of a "whopper" recession in 2023; why isn't the Fed looking at M-2?

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(8/30/22) With markets in an over-sold on multiple levels, a rally was due, and markets did on Monday test the 50-DMA and bounced, almost rallying to break-even, before slipping back to the close. Markets actually posted a "green candle" for the day. Tuesday morning futures are pointing higher, as a prelude to an attempt at a bounce, with the potential to get back up to the 20-DMA. We will likely see a rally that is sold-into. A rally to...

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(8/30/22) Markets are on sell-signals, so use any rally to sell-into and raise cash, rebalance portfolio risk; the impact on credit spreads by rising interest rates will reverberate through the economy. We are likely not through the corrective period. 60% of Americans living paycheck to paycheck--down from 61%! Is the pain worth the fight on inflation? why investing doesn't work as advertised. America exports inflation and imports deflation; what...

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