Category Archive: 9a) Buy and Hold

(9/7/22) Markets always operate in either a buying- or selling-stampede, where prices rise incessantly for a period, and then seem to be in a sell-off mode forever; investors are always asking, 'when will it stop?' Example: The July lows that led to the August highs. The current selling stampede has been running for 13-days. To keep this in perspective, we're still above July's lows...there is a risk of re-testing those lows, certainly, given where...

Read More »

(9/7/22) September markets are underway with buying and selling stampedes; use any rally to reduce risk. If you're worrying too much about your portfolio, you're holding too much risk! Looking forward, earnings expectations are still too elevated, and valuations have to come down. A side-by-side look at the ISM vs S&P PMI; geopolitical decisions affect markets. Europe is imploding over high energy costs (thanks, Vladimir!) As the US exports...

Read More »

(9/6/22) Markets are set to open higher after last week's sell-off, under pressure from Fed head Jerome Powell's post-Jackson Hole speech, suggesting more rate hikes, more aggressively, are still to come. Markets tried to challenge that, until Russia threw a wrench into the works, announcing a cut off of natural gas to Europe. This morning's futures are looking higher, seeking a bit of a rally as markets remain over-sold. Continue to use these...

Read More »

(9/6/22) The best thing about this week may be that it's only four-days long! Liz Truss is the new UK PM, already embattled; the death of BBY CEO; OPEC's production cut & the half-life of a Biden fist-bump; Russia's weaponization of natural gas to Europe; Europe's response to inflation: Do the same things again that caused it; the move from capitalism to more socialistic practices; market valuations and the shift from GAP to Forward Operating...

Read More »

In the kind of market where bad news is good news, where do we go from here? The dark side of not allowing business cycle to complete: Recession = Bad; so the market has outrun the economy. Why the Medicare Advantage TV ads have disappeared;

Read More »

(9/1/22) Cheerleaders singing the praises of a bear market bottom, bullishness abounding, and high prices for equities were back...were wrong. Turns out it was a bear market rally, after an assault on the 200-DMA failed.

Read More »

(9/1/22) What would happen if markets break through the 50-DMA? We're treating any market rally as an opportunity to sell and reduce equity risk; parsing Jerome Powell's post-Jackson Hole comments; bringing pain to households and businesses, and the beginning of the Price-Wage spiral; will the Fed start to pay more attention to employment numbers?

Read More »