Category Archive: 9a) Buy and Hold

(4/12/22) The recent surge in interest rates must be viewed in context: This IS one of the largest draw downs in Bond prices--and rate hikes--in quite some time. But rates are only back where they were in 2019--pre-Pandemic shutdown: Houses were selling (there was a "shortage") and consumers were spending. Post-pandemic, home buyers are "being shut out" because of current rates (at the same 2019 levels); what's the difference?...

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(4/12/22) The Easter holiday weekend gives you three days to file your 2021 Tax Return, due this year on April 17. Lance Market commentary and CPI Preview. How Joe Biden has run afoul of environmentalists as he contorts to control the rising fuel price fiasco he caused. The Millennial Narcissism epidemic, and how market metrics affect investor psychology; the substitution effect; just because interest rates are, doesn't necessarily mean they'll go...

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(4/11/22) This will likely be a much-lighter trading week, ahead of the Good Friday holiday and Easter. Markets have been in an orderly decline following the recent rally; markets are holding support right at the 50-DMA. If that level can be sustained, markets will be primed to rally again. However, sell-signals have been triggered from a fairly high level, so more correctional action is also possibility. Markets are continuing in a month-long...

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Earnings season is about to re-convene: What companies say about forward looking guidance will be key. This is a holiday-shortened trading week with Good Friday. We've been in a major bear market, despite what the main stream media says. What does it mean when everyone is talking about Recession? A discussion of Yield Curve(s) behaviors; how you know we're at the peak of a business cycle. The problem with lagging indicators. King Richard & Will...

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(4/8/22) What corporations are saying about inflation & future earnings. Creativity in the Peep-dom: Richard discovers alternatively-flavored marshmallow Peeps; Wal-art's $100k truck drivers. Annuities in retirement; where's the target on target-dated funds (on your back). How to Quell Retirement Fears vs reaching retirement goals; what is the real definition of "retirement plan?" Achieving retirement nirvana vs under-funded plans....

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(4/7/22) How do interest rates respond to Fed dynamics? Meeting minutes from the latest FOMC confab reveal a majority of Fed members favor an accelerated tapering of the Fed's balance sheet, and schedule of rate hikes--leading to Wednesday's sell-off. Historically, previous rate hikes and balance sheet lightening resulted in counter-intuitive movement in actual interest rates. Using the 10-year Treasuries as a proxy, it's interesting to note...

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(4/7/22) Now that the Fed's more rapid rate hike cat is out of the bag, markets celebrated with a Wednesday sell-off; at this point, it's instructive to note the history of market activity around such hikes; earnings growth will be challenged by higher rates, higher borrowing costs; Coffee Talk: Taking the Caffeine our of the Markets; markets have priced-in the Fed's rate hikes. The Fed's talking the talk, and hoping markets will do the heavy...

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