Category Archive: 9b) Stock Picking, Value & Dividends

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Beware the Ides of the Earnings Season!

It is critical for an investor to be very vigilant during the earnings season, which already began on January 11 with Alcoa (AA) reporting its results. Not only do companies report their financials, but they also make other significant announcements, such as either raising or lowering its earnings guidance for the coming months. Given the importance of this information, it is no surprise that a company's stock can often soar or plunge on these...

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With the eyes of the chameleon the market turns deep red!

2016-01-27

by

2016-01-27

The S&P 500 now stands at 1880.33 points, only 31.97 points from its 2015 opening price of 1848.36; for the broad market, a year’s meager gains almost wiped clean. The index’s P/E ratio now stands at 19.81, and is still well above its historic average of 15.57.

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That was the week that was!

2016-01-27

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2016-01-27

Grail Alpha
Week January 17-22 : This was the first winning week of 2016 and of some relief to ordinary investors. The question is whether it is sustainable, or just a short-covering bounce, as is frequently the case when the market is undergoing a correction. Currently the S&P 500 has sunk 10.5%, the DJ-30 12.1%, and the NASDAQ 12.0%, since mid-2015. Calling a bottom, or a top, is a challenge even for professional investors. I would cite three short-term...

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The Market’s Bad Omens mount as the Black Swan population grows!

Last week’s market action confirmed clearly its corrective trend. I cannot say more than that, because when systematic risk kicks in the good, the bad, and the ugly all suffer the same slippery fate.

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Miserable week that ended a miserable year

it was the S&P 500’s worst since the start of the bull market in 2009, ending the year down 0.73% at 2043.94 points. 56% of the stocks posted losses

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Only high-Alpha Investing in 2016 will be profitable!

Russ Koesterich of Blackrock believes that the market is experiencing a profit recession. If so, equity markets will experience more of the same pain next year. The global economy will be even worse off as it moves through its recessionary cycle. However, in contrast, Grail portfolios will continue to show very attractive earnings growth, since their average earnings surprise over 5 quarters is $0.06

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The Fallacies of Portfolio Volatility Measurements

John Henry Smith introduces the base concepts of portfolio volatility: Standard deviation, linearity, normal distribution and the Gaussian bell curve, skewness, value-at-risk and the alpha premium. He explains why they are often misinterpreted.

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The Low Volatility Anomaly and the Failures of Your Asset Manager

John Henry Smith Grail Securities
According to John Henry Smith, fund managers are too much focused on bench-marking their performance to a market index, over-emphasizing the importance of "alpha". But asset managers should abstract from alpha and construct portfolios that have lower risk and higher return than the market. Impossible?

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Mark of a true investor: He disregards instincts

John Henry Smith Grail Securities Switzerland explains why instincts and greed are counter-productive in the world of investing. Instead you should train yourself against them.

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Listen to the Sirens of the Stock Market at your Peril!

John Henry Smith of Grail Securities (Switzerland) shows that the financial markets have always been awash with its own brand of Sirens, who dolefully prophesy the complete collapse of whole economic systems. For him Pericles gave the best advice: “The key is not to predict the future, but to be prepared for it!”

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Adjust Your Sales in today’s Choppy Market!

Dumping stocks is one of the hardest things to do. The best way to do this is to examine each stock’s earnings growth projections for significant damage. A planned 20% or 25% return might now no longer realistic, in particular when the sink even below their 200-day moving average

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Don’t Over-Complicate Investment!

John Henry Smith of Grail Securities explains the five most simple rules of investment. Don't build a Rube Goldberg machine! Don't over-complicate things! 1. As a bull, ensure an up-trending market 2. Find a stock with superior fundamentals 3. Wait for a support base 4. Buy the stock when it breaks out 5. Cut your losses quickly if the stock fails

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John Henry Smith, the Grail: Abnormally High Returns

John Henry Smith Grail Securities
John Henry Smith of Grail Securities (Switzerland) specializes in the U.S. stock market. He offers a unique and powerful advisory service to private investors, institutional investors, and asset managers, who are seeking to consistently beat the market.

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