Category Archive: 4) FX Trends

Main Author Marc Chandler
Marc Chandler
He has been covering the global capital markets in one fashion or another for more than 30 years, working at economic consulting firms and global investment banks. After 14 years as the global head of currency strategy for Brown Brothers Harriman, Chandler joined Bannockburn Global Forex, as a managing partner and chief markets strategist as of October 1, 2018.
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Cool Video: Bloomberg Discussion of Late US Cycle

2018-10-23

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2018-10-23

An assessment of the US economy is an important input into the expectations of the dollar's behavior in the foreign exchange market. As a currency strategist, my views of the US economy are often subsumed in discussions or talked about indirectly by talking about Fed policy.  However, in this clip with Alix Steel and David Westin, I have an opportunity to sketch outlook for the US economy.

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2019 Slowdown Will Force Fed to Pause, Chandler Says

2018-10-22

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Oct.22 — Marc Chandler, chief market strategist and managing partner at Bannockburn Global Forex, discusses the potential for a U.S. recession and looks at the Federal Reserve’s rate path. He speaks on “Bloomberg Daybreak: Americas.”

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FX Daily, October 22: Collective Sigh of Relief?

2018-10-22

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2018-10-22

After a slow start in Asia, the US dollar has turned better bid. The euro recovered from $1.1430 before the weekend to $1.1550 today, where an option for almost 525 mln euros expires today. There is another option (1.6 bln euros) at $1.1500 that also expires today.

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FX Weekly Preview: What Can Bite You This Week?

2018-10-22

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2018-10-22

Several major central banks will meet next week, including the European Central Bank, but it is only the Bank of Canada that is expected to hike rates. The flash PMIs and the first official estimate of Q3 US GDP are among the data highlights. Beyond the events and data, the volatility from global equity markets from Shanghai to New York will continue to have a strong influence on other capital markets.

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FX Daily, October 18: China’s Angst Stays Local

2018-10-18

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2018-10-18

Asian equities were lower, led by a nearly 3% drop in Shanghai, while European shares shrugged it off and the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is up about 0.4% in late morning turnover. The S&P 500 is off by about 0.25%. Global bond yields were dragged higher by US Treasuries where the 10-year yield is straddling 3.20% after rising four basis points yesterday.

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Brexit: Five FAQs

2018-10-18

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2018-10-18

Brexit
The UK voted in s referendum to leave the EU in June 2016. It will happen at the end of March 2019. What is the status of the negotiations? It had been hoped that the two sides would be close enough to allow a special summit to be called next month to finalize an agreement.

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FX Daily, October 17: Greenback is Little Changed While Stocks Recover

2018-10-17

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2018-10-17

Led by a dramatic recovery in US stocks, global equities are moving higher today. Before last week, decline, the US stock market lacked breadth, but not only did the S&P 500 and NASDAQ post their biggest advance in several months, but the small-cap stocks in the Russell 2000 had their best day in a couple of years.

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Great Graphic: What is Happening to Global Equities?

2018-10-17

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2018-10-17

The decline in the global equity market is the most serious since the February and March spill. In this Great Graphic, the white line is the S&P 500. With the setback, it is up a little more than 8% for the year. It managed to recover fully from the sell-off earlier in the year.

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FX Daily, October 16: Semblance of Stability Returns

2018-10-16

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2018-10-16

Overview:  Although the S&P 500 was unable to sustain early gains yesterday, the largely consolidative session was part of the stabilization of equities after last week's jump in volatility.  Asia and European stocks are also cautiously steadying.  Most Asia equity markets advanced with the Nikkei's 1.25% advance most bourses higher.  China was a notable exception, The Shanghai Composite recorded new lows for the year and finished uninspiringly on...

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Macro Cheat Sheet

2018-10-16

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2018-10-16

Fred
The dollar's recovery ahead of the weekend was aided by the stabilization of the stock market, where the S&P 500 managed to close back above the psychologically important 200-day moving average. Interpolating from prices, the market does not expect the President's criticism to alter the Fed's course.

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FX Daily, October 15: Monday Blues

2018-10-15

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2018-10-15

Despite the pre-weekend gains that lifted the S&P 500 above its 200-day moving average, global equities are moving lower today. The main news over the weekend included the US renewing its threat to impose more tariffs on China and Saudi Arabia threatening retaliation for any sanctions relating to the disappearance of the journalist Khashoggi, and the lack of a breakthrough in UK-EU negotiations.

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FX Weekly Preview: Forces of Movement

2018-10-15

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2018-10-15

There are three broad forces of movement in the week ahead: the equity market performance, political developments, and economic data. It was a tumultuous week for equities, and there was not clear or obvious trigger.  With US bond yields and equities trending higher this year, there does not seem to a reason why it ended last week. 

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How do you think about turning your forex trading failures into successes?

2018-10-13

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Each forex trade is an experiment that can lead to a failure/loss. Many new traders are not used to failing as many times as will happen in trading forex. That’s tough to take for many. How traders think about trading failures can make a difference in the longer term success or failure. Turning failures into …

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FX Daily, October 12: Market Fever is Burning Itself Out Ahead of the Weekend

2018-10-12

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2018-10-12

 Equity markets are stabilizing today as Asian and European markets shrug off the failure to get traction in the US yesterday.   As everything and nothing was behind the dramatic sell-off in recent days, the same could be said about today's recovery.  Most accounts seem to be emphasizing two developments:  a report indicating that despite the talk earlier in the week, there is a recognition by the US Treasury staff that China's actions do not reach...

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Why the old forex playbook doesn’t work

2018-10-12

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Adam Button from ForexLive.com talks with BNNBloomberg. LET’S CONNECT! Facebook ► http://facebook.com/forexlive Twitter ► https://twitter.com/ForexLive Forexlive Homepage ► http://www.forexlive.com/

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FX Daily, October 11: Equity Swoon Takes Spotlight, Pushes Dollar to Backfoot

2018-10-11

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2018-10-11

There is one story today, and that is the sell-off in global equities. Although the narratives put the US at the center, the fact of the matter is that US equities have been among the best performers this year, despite the rise of interest rates and a President that is not above criticizing the central bank.

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Macro Cheat Sheet

2018-10-11

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2018-10-11

clouods
Rising US rates in absolute terms and relative to other countries, coupled with the policy-mix and US tax reform are the main drivers. The market has nearly completely discounted three more Fed hikes by the end of next year, while the Fed has signaled that four hikes may be appropriate.

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FX Daily, October 10: US Dollar Pullback may Continue in North America

2018-10-10

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2018-10-10

The euro bottomed yesterday near $1.1430 and reached $1.1515 in Asia. Support is seen near $1.1480 and should hold if the euro's upside correction is to continue. There are options struck $1.1500-$1.1510 for nearly 1.4 bln euros that expire today. For the third consecutive session, the dollar found bids a little below JPY113.00. There is a $1 bln JPY113 option that will be cut today.

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FX Daily, October 09: A (Short) Reprieve For China while the Dollar Stays Firm

2018-10-09

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2018-10-09

The small gains in China's Shanghai Composite and the yuan is helping sentiment today. News that Italy's budget watchdog may reject the government's fiscal plans has helped stabilize Italian assets initially, but renewed pressure quickly materialized. Most Asian equities retreated while Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is struggling to snap a three-day slide. US shares are trading heavily in Europe.

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Cool Video: Clip from CNBC Squawk Box

2018-10-09

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2018-10-09

Marc Chandler
The combination of divergence and the US policy mix is underpinning the dollar and I was invited to share my views on CNBC's Squawk Box earlier today. It dovetailed nicely Matthew Diczok (from Merrill Lynch) views on Fed policy and US interest rates.

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