Category Archive: 4) FX Trends

Main Author Marc Chandler
Marc Chandler
He has been covering the global capital markets in one fashion or another for more than 30 years, working at economic consulting firms and global investment banks. After 14 years as the global head of currency strategy for Brown Brothers Harriman, Chandler joined Bannockburn Global Forex, as a managing partner and chief markets strategist as of October 1, 2018.
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Capital Flows Outstrip Trade Flows and that is Where to Look for Drivers of FX

2022-11-12

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2022-11-12

Policymakers have often said that exchange rates should reflect fundamentals. What does that really mean? Can they do anything but that? It begs the question of which fundamental factors they should reflect.

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Caution Advised in Chasing FX, but Wow!

2022-11-11

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2022-11-11

Overview:  The softer than expected US inflation figures unleashed significant market adjustment that continue to ripple through the capital markets. The modification of some of China’s Covid stance may have also fanned some optimism, but we suggest that measures are modest tweaks, and the surge in infections will prevent the end of disruptive restrictions.

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Here we go. CPI ahead. What levels are in play?

2022-11-10

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A look at some of the key levels in play for the major currency pairs. The US CPI will be released at the bottom of the hour. Risk is increased so be careful.  Don't confuse gambling with trading.  However, if stronger than expectations or weaker we could see some good trend like moves. So know your levels that define the bias and your risk.   What levels are in play for the major currency pairs? I look at the  EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD, USDCHF and...

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High Anxiety: China’s Covid and US Inflation

2022-11-10

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2022-11-10

Overview: Anxiety is running high. Rather than ease its Covid restrictions, a surge in cases is seeing more areas in China come under restrictions. The US reports CPI and of the ten reports this year, seven of them have been stronger than expected.

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NZDUSD bounces near 100 hour MA/broken 38.2% retracement. What now?

2022-11-09

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The NZDUSD has bounced off a target support level after correcting lower from a key resistance level during trading yesterday. The buyers and sellers are lining up against the target support and resistance levels with the buyers trying to keep technical control.

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The USD moves higher after 3 days of declines. Technical levels did help reverse the bias.What next?

2022-11-09

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Greg Michalowski of Forexlive takes a technical look at the EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD and AUDUSD to start your trading day in the US. The USD moved lower for 3 consecutive days (the US stocks moved higher as a result). That move is seeing some retracement today. Technical targets were reached in a number of currency pairs to help the reversal. The move back higher in the USD is taking back some bearish technical breaks. EURUSD: The EURUSD is moving...

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Markets Consolidate After US Election

2022-11-09

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2022-11-09

Overview: It is difficult to see the impact of the US midterm election in the immediate aftermath. The dollar is stronger against all the major currencies, but this seems to be mostly position adjusting ahead of tomorrow’s CPI report after a pullback in recent days.

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Federal Reserve speakers coming up on Wednesday, 9 November 2022 – Williams, Barkin

2022-11-09

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2022-11-09

The talking heads at the US Federal Reserve have pivoted to talking about how high rates will go before they top out as against how quickly they will rise.

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The USDCAD made break down.The AUDUSD & NZDUSD held below some solid resistance.What next?

2022-11-08

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A technical look at the USDCAD, AUDUSD and NZDUSD.

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The USD has seen a little move higher vs the EUR and GBP. The USD is lower vs the JPY.

2022-11-08

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What is driving those currency pairs from a technical perspective as US voters go to the polls? It is election day in the US with the House elections and some key Senate seats up for grabs. The USD is mixed with the greenback higher vs the EUR and GBP in early NY trading, but lower vs the JPY.   What is helping to drive those three currency pairs in early NY trading? What levels are in play for trading today and going forward?

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The Dollar Edges Higher

2022-11-08

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2022-11-08

Overview: After selling off amid speculation that China’s Covid policy was going to ease, we expected the greenback to recover and consolidate ahead of Thursday’s CPI. This did not materialize yesterday, but the dollar has come back better bid today. Equity markets are mostly firmer, but nearly all the large markets, but China/Hong Kong, rising in the Asia Pacific region. Europe’s Stoxx 600 is posting small gains. It is the third session in a row...

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The USD is lower to start the trading week, piggybacking on the declines on Friday

2022-11-07

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What at the technical levels in play today In the morning forex technical report, Greg MIchalowski of Forexlive.com looks at the major currency pairs and outlines the bias and levels in play to start the trading week. ON Friday, the dollar moved helped by the technicals. That trend has continued into the trading today.   In the report today, I take a look at the EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD and the USDCAD.

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Risk Appetites Survive China Keeping Zero Covid Policy

2022-11-07

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2022-11-07

Overview: Chinese officials denied plans to end the zero-Covid policy and after a brief wobble, risk assets have traded better. Asia Pacific equities rallied, led by Hong Kong and mainland stocks that trade in Hong Kong. Europe’s Stoxx 600 opened lower but recovered and is around 0.5% higher after the 1.8% gain before the weekend. US futures are firm. Benchmark 10-year yields are mostly 2-4 bp softer in Europe and the US. The dollar is mixed. The...

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Can the Dollar Sell Off Much More Before the CPI?

2022-11-06

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2022-11-06

The apparent hawkishness of Fed Chair Powell's comments at the press conference following the FOMC's fourth consecutive rate hike extended the dollar's recovery, which had begun in late October. 

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The Fed and jobs are behind. Inflation is ahead

2022-11-06

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In this video, Greg Michalowski of Forexlive.com reviews the Fed and the US jobs report and previews the CPI data ahead. He also looks at the technicals that define the bias and the risk levels for the major currencies vs the USD. EURUSD (9:45) USDJPY (14:10) GBPUSD (15:38) USDCHF (17:00) USDCAD (18:48) AUDUSD (20:30) NZDUSD (21:46)

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The Week Ahead: How Sticky is US Inflation and How Soft is China’s?

2022-11-05

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2022-11-05

There are three potential inflection points. The first is a pause from the Fed; if nothing else, Powell signaled it was too early to think about it. The second is for the Bank of Japan to change monetary policy. Governor Kuroda has signaled that it is not time. Conventional wisdom is there will not be a change until Kuroda's term ends next April. However, we note that the surveys suggest economists and BOJ inflation forecasts for next year have...

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EURUSD moves to a new high. Tests the July swing low at 0.99515

2022-11-04

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The EURUSD is moving to a new session high and in the process is up testing one of my old favorite levels.  The 0.99515 level.  That level was the swing low back in July after the price broke below the parity level for the first time. In September the price moved down to test it, before breaking to the cycle low for the year. Last month, the pair used the level as a risk defining target as well. We are back testing it. A move above would have...

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Dollar moves lower. How did the technicals help the price action post the NFP report?

2022-11-04

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Before the US jobs report, Greg Michalowski of Forexlive outlined the key levels in play. If you did not see that video, you can find it here. So how did the levels play out? The technical levels did tell the story. What was surprising was the price action.  If someone told me the data ahead, I would have the dollar moving higher, the stocks moving lower and yields move higher. That was the initial reaction, but technical levels to the USD...

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Technical levels in play for the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD ahead of the US jobs report.

2022-11-04

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Be aware. Be prepared IN this pre-US jobs report, Greg Michalowski of Forexlive.com outlines the key technical levels in play.  Risk is increased. The market is preparing for the next shove. - The EURUSD has retraced and moved back to a key technical area. - The USDJPY is trading between its 100/200 hour MAs and awaiting the next shove - The GBPUSD is trading above and below its 200 bar MA on the 4 hour chart and within a swing area.  Find out...

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US Dollar Offered Ahead of the Employment Report

2022-11-04

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2022-11-04

Overview: Risk appetites have returned but may be tested by the US jobs report. News of progress with US auditors in China helped lift Hong Kong and Chinese equities. Most of the large bourses in the region also rose. Europe’s Stoxx 600 is up a little more than 1% near midday after shedding 1.3% over the past two sessions. US futures also are trading with an upside bias. Benchmark 10-year yields are mostly a little softer today. The 10-year US...

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