Category Archive: 4) FX Trends

Main Author Marc Chandler
Marc Chandler
He has been covering the global capital markets in one fashion or another for more than 30 years, working at economic consulting firms and global investment banks. After 14 years as the global head of currency strategy for Brown Brothers Harriman, Chandler joined Bannockburn Global Forex, as a managing partner and chief markets strategist as of October 1, 2018.
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Markets reacting to the central banks and regional bank concerns

2023-05-04

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A technical look at the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD to start your trading day. The ECB matched the Fed hike of 25 basis points today. Yesterday the USD fell. Today the EUR fell after the hikes.  Go figure.  Concerns about banking is weighing and adding another dimension to the markets.   IN the report this morning, I strip out the fundamentals and focus on technicals on 3 the major currency pairs - the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD.

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The Euro Stalled Near Its Best Level since April 2022 Ahead of ECB’s Decision

2023-05-04

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2023-05-04

Overview: Without making a commitment, the Federal Reserve opened the door to a pause in its tightening cycle and the market has concluded it is over. The dollar slumped to new lows for the move against sterling (and the Mexican peso), while euro stalled as it approached last week's high, which was the best level since April 2022. The dollar remains soft against most of the G10 currencies, today. The Norwegian krone is leading after the 25 bp hike...

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It is time to get ready for the FOMC fireworks. What levels are in play for major pairs.

2023-05-03

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The FOMC will announce a rate decision at 2 PM ET. The rotations are 25 basis points although the regional bank pressure has brought down the expectations a bit ahead of that rate decision.  The question may be how can the Fed execute a dovish hike. IN this report I look at the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD. The EURUSD moved back above its 100/200 hour MAs tilting the bias more to the upside once again. The USDJPY fell back below its 100 hour MA but...

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Fed Day

2023-05-03

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2023-05-03

Overview: A sharper than expected decline in US job openings and weaker factory orders coupled with intensifying bank stress sent ripples through the capital markets. The large US bank index fell 4.5% yesterday, the most in six weeks, while the regional bank index fell nearly 5.5%, its biggest loss since March 13. Both indices took out the March lows. The US 10-year yield unwound Monday's increase and the two-year note yield fell back below 4.0%...

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Our first impression at Sandton Convention Centre🤩 #fmas #fmas23 #fmevents #financemagnates

2023-05-02

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The RBA surprises with a 25 bp hike. What next for the AUDUSD?

2023-05-02

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The Reserve Bank of Australia increase rates by 25 basis points in a surprise move and that sent the AUDUSD sharply to the upside.  What next for that currency pair as traders next prepare for the FOMC rate decision tomorrow? In the US morning Forex typing report, I also take a look at the technicals driving the EURUSD and the USDJPY at the start of the US session.

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RBA Surprises with a Quarter-Point Hike

2023-05-02

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2023-05-02

Overview: A combination of a surprisingly strong prices paid component to the US manufacturing PMI, corporate supply, and US debt woes spurred an almost 15 bp spike in the US 10-year yield and 13 bp jump in the two-year yield. The rise in US rates appeared to lend the dollar support. The greenback's gains have been extended today, but a surprise hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia is seeing the Australian dollar (and New Zealand dollar) traded...

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Dollar Comes Back Bid, as First Republic Taken Over (Mostly) by JP Morgan

2023-05-01

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2023-05-01

Overview: Most markets are closed for the May Day holiday. News that JP Morgan will acquire most of First Republic assets will be a relief for the markets. US equity futures are slightly firmer, and the 10-year Treasury yield is around three basis points higher, slightly above 3.45%. Recall that before the weekend, it has fallen from almost 3.55% to 3.42%. The market has more than a 90% chance of a quarter-point hike discounted for Wednesday. The...

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Nasdaq futures technical analysis: Aiming for 13500

2023-04-30

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See more at https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/nasdaq-futures-technical-analysis-and-price-forecast-key-levels-to-watch-13500-target-20230430/

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May 2023 Monthly

2023-04-29

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2023-04-29

May will feature likely rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of England. The banking stress that erupted in March appears contained, though one regional bank's dramatic loss of deposits saw it rekindle at the end of April. What makes the May rate hikes important is that the derivatives markets are confident (again) this is the last hike for the Fed. The swaps market anticipates two more hikes from the BOE and...

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Drive your dream supercar at FMAS:23!

2023-04-28

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Experience the ultimate thrill at 🎉FMAS:23🎉 and seize the opportunity to win your dream ride! Stay tuned for exciting updates on how you can become one of the lucky ones to unleash your need for speed in these remarkable supercars!🏎 Don't miss your chance to awaken the inner adrenaline junkie within you!🔥

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The USDJPY is soaring after BOJ decision. The GBPUSD tries another upside break.

2023-04-28

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The USDJPY soared in trading today as new BOJ head Ueda signaled no change in policy.  That has the USDJPY moving toward its 200 day MA at 137.00 area.  The EURUSD moved below the 200 hour MA and trend line, but stalled near the week lows (Tuesday's low). Stay below 200 hour MA keeps the sellers more in control today  A move back above, not so bearish. GBPUSD is trying to break above a swing area. Prior breaks this week failed fairly quickly....

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Yen Slumps on Cautious BOJ

2023-04-28

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2023-04-28

Overview:  The market took a dovish message away from the Bank of Japan and sent the dollar above JPY136, its best level since March 10 and spurred a sharp rally in JGBs. Japanese equities led the rally among the Asia Pacific markets. Europe has not been able to follow suit. It disappointed with Q1 GDP (0.1% rather than 0.2%). The Stoxx 600 is of about 0.3%, leaving it off about 1.3% this week, its first weekly loss since the middle of March. US...

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Fireside Chat about fintech & regulation in Africa🇿🇦

2023-04-27

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USDCAD backs off from topside resistance but the 100 hour MA stalls the fall

2023-04-27

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The USDCAD moved to a swing area target and 61.8 Retracement level this week and that area stalled the rise. In trading today, sellers have pushed lower but has run into support at the 100 hour MA.  So buyer and sellers have defined the close support and resistance. Traders are waiting for the next shove outside one of those technical levels.

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US GDP lower but core PCE higher. That sends yields and the USD higher in early US trading

2023-04-27

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The US GDP came in lower-than-expected but core PCE was higher. That has sent the US yields to the upside and the US dollar higher in early US trading.  However, the moves post the data, has the pair trading back to 100/200 are moving average levels in the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD - and stalled. Those moving averages will be barometers in the new trading day. What is clear is the ups and downs have continued in those major currency pairs.

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Markets Becalmed Ahead of Key Data and BOJ Meeting Outcome

2023-04-27

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2023-04-27

Overview: Some regional bank earnings were weighing on investor sentiment but reports that the FDIC is running out of patience with First Republic Bank to strike a private deal and could decide to downgrade its assessment. This could lead to limits on its ability to use the Fed's emergency facilities. Other reports said that the bank's advisers are securing commitments to buy a new stock as part of a broader restructuring. Still, while the KBW bank...

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The EURUSD and GBPUSD rebound today. The AUDSD moves to a new year low

2023-04-26

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The EURUSD and the GBPUSD fell sharply yesterday on flight to safety flows, but in trading today, those declines are being erased.  The USDJPY chops around after yesterday saw a decline on flight to more safety into the JPY on banking concerns.  The AUDUSD is lower after YoY inflation fell more than expected in Australia today despite the slightly higher QoQ data.

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Bank Stress Hobbles the Dollar, while Dissents Make the 50 bp Hike by Sweden less than Hawkish

2023-04-26

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2023-04-26

Overview: The re-emergence of bank stress reverberated through the US markets yesterday, downgrading the perceived chances of a Fed hike next week and sending the US 2-year yield sharply lower. The yield settled 13 bp lower, the largest drop in three weeks. The risk-off sent the US dollar higher against most of the major and emerging market currencies. Follow-through US dollar gains today has been mostly limited to the Australian dollar, where...

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AUDUSD transit to the downside and approaches a floor area. What next?

2023-04-25

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The AUDUSD corrected higher into the Asian session today, and in the process tested the 100 hour MA. Sellers leaned against the level, and has been trending the pair lower since then. In the NY session the pair has moved below a swing area between 0.6649 and 0.66526. Stay below is more bearish going forward. The move lower has looked to approach the March 24 low at 0.6625 in the April 10 low at 0.66186. Move below that area opens the door for...

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